jojo762 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 That 12z HRW FV3 run is something... Hoping something like that does not happen today. Verbatim that would be a super-outbreak. No other CAMs are quite as aggressive with supercells up into Tennessee or really even that far south in MS, so it's definitely an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 The threat looks like it's shifting east, more into AL. Some of the VADS out of MS aren't too hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Tornado watch coming for AL for the ongoing storms there now. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustMePatrick Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0252.html Mesoscale Discussion 0252 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Areas affected...central and northern Mississippi and Alabama...parts of southern Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 251512Z - 251745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing storms from Mississippi into Alabama may consolidate into supercells through midday with developing tornado threat. A tornado watch is likely by early afternoon. DISCUSSION...Ongoing activity over eastern MS and into AL has been elevated for much of the morning, but cells now extend southwest of the warm front which is situated from from northern MS into central AL. Radar trends show that cells within these areas have acquired rotation as they attempt to transition from elevated to surface based. This may happen over the next couple hours as temperatures warm into the 70s F with the warm front lifting north, maximizing effective SRH. Therefore, it is possible that these cells develop a tornado threat over the next few hours. 0-1 km SRH of 300-400 m2/s2 along the warm front will favor strong tornadoes as the stronger instability develops into the warm advection zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 some of those cells near tuscaloosa would explode if they got sfc based Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 This is becoming an AL event in a hurry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 New convection getting going near Baton Rouge could be of interest over the next few hours. Satellite and radar obs tell me those Tuscaloosa storms are certainly trying... Also JAN just hit 75/71. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 I have learned from watching storms here in the Midwest never to discount the possibility and potential of WF associated thunderstorms and tornadoes. And with an environment like you have in AL at present I would be especially concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 I wouldn’t write off the southeastern half of Mississippi yet. There has been a slight southeast trend with recent HRRR runs. Note that the axis of a boundary exists from roughly Jackson-Columbus-Huntsville with ongoing and soon to be new convection along and southeast of this boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 8 minutes ago, Bob's Burgers said: This is becoming an AL event in a hurry Are the storms developing in the SW part of the state not the main show? I don’t think any of the models have depicted the morning convection to develop into the main round of supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Quincy said: I wouldn’t write off the southeastern half of Mississippi yet. There has been a slight southeast trend with recent HRRR runs. Note that the axis of a boundary exists from roughly Jackson-Columbus-Huntsville with ongoing and soon to be new convection along and southeast of this boundary. Yeah, the Philadelphia area is still in the hot seat. Jackson not as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, buckeyefan1_ said: Hes banning wizard021 which is me for no ****ing reason. Hi. Not sure what you're up in arms about, but lets not call people ass shats, shall we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 minute ago, mappy said: Hi. Not sure what you're up in arms about, but lets not call people ass shats, shall we? I have a feeling I know why he got banned.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, mappy said: Hi. Not sure what you're up in arms about, but lets not call people ass shats, shall we? Wizard021....now banned twice today Now back to your regular scheduled program 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, buckeyefan1 said: Wizard021....now banned twice today Now back to your regular scheduled program holla if you need me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, mappy said: holla if you need me Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 11 minutes ago, schoeppeya said: Are the storms developing in the SW part of the state not the main show? I don’t think any of the models have depicted the morning convection to develop into the main round of supercells. They are (the cells in the SW part of the state) , but based off the latest data I would think they mature in AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 People comparing this to last week need to remember that the low was much weaker than this bad boy. We’ve got a rapidly deepening low expected to go below 990 MB. That is something that in my opinion was really lacking last week. Even here at home we’ve got dews into the mid 60s far from the low 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Yeah this is a much higher ceiling than last week. Maybe fewer tors, but those that do produce are gonna be strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Seeing strong broad rotation on those cells west of Birmingham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 The storm over Gorgas is developing a mid-level mesocyclone. Probably the storm to watch for now in terms of tornado potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Meso out for most of MS now too, tornado watch coming. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 minute ago, SmokeEater said: Meso out for most of MS now too, tornado watch coming. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Mesoscale Discussion 0253 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Areas affected...central and northern Mississippi...parts of southwest Tennessee...northwest Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 251558Z - 251830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to form over the next couple hours over central and western Mississippi. Supercells are likely, with tornado threat increasing as cells mature and move northeast toward Alabama. Watch will be issues soon. DISCUSSION...Visible imagery and surface obs indicate the air mass continues to destabilize with areas of heating, as temperatures rise into the mid 70s F over the warm sector. This is sufficiently warm for surface-based parcels. Indications are that cells may develop both ahead of the cold front due to a very moist warm sector, and along the front itself. Deep-layer shear is expected to strengthen storms, which will gain intensity and tornado potential as they mature and continue northeastward across MS and into AL. The threat may extend into southern TN as well, once the warm front lifts there. ..Jewell/Hart.. 03/25/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, Bob's Burgers said: They are (the cells in the SW part of the state) , but based off the latest data I would think they mature in AL Yes, the surface low is forecast to rapidly deepen. It is 1006 mb and diffuse now but expected to deepen to 996 mb by this evening in southern IL. This may be one item to watch later today if the pressure falls do not occur as intensely as expected. I think I am grasping at some kind of straw to mitigate what looks to be a possibly historic outbreak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Gensini is just going ALL in, and I mean ALL in... I don't really know but he's definitely respected so I think it's pretty noteworthy. Though I don't seriously think SPC issues a 60% sig unless we're in the midst of Super Outbreak v3 in about 3 hours (which again, is unlikely *to be clear*). I would probably just shift the high risk a little S/SE honestly and keep the TOR risk at 30%... but I'm an amateur at best, so again, I really don't know. Anyone else can chime in on their thoughts on it (some have already). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Yes, the surface low is forecast to rapidly deepen. It is 1006 mb and diffuse now but expected to deepen to 996 mb by this evening in southern IL. This may be one item to watch later today if the pressure falls do not occur as intensely as expected. I think I am grasping at some kind of straw to mitigate what looks to be a possibly historic outbreak. It’s a general rule of thumb in my opinion. I think back to my Great Lakes days and the June 2010 outbreak where you had a deepening low spawn one violent tornado and multiple EF-2’s through NW Ohio/SE Michigan around the midnight hour. In fact many of the better tornado outbreaks I’ve lived through were lows going through significant intensification bringing in ample winds aloft and moisture. Also let’s not forget we’re talking about an expected up to 3500 j/kg of energy and SRH’s in the ballpark of 500. That is simply insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 Low level cyclonic convergence is getting more noticeable in the storm near Gorgas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 Starting to turn right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Gorgas looks like it may be our first real player of the afternoon IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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