crossbowftw3 Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 BGM hitting on the potential as well...mentioning potential banding. Won't factor much for me in the SE corner of their CWA but definitely will to the north of here Meanwhile, a surface low will start to develop near Long Island and this low will deepen quickly as it tracks into western New England. The approaching upper level trough starts to become neutral to negatively tilted, slowing down its eastward movement. 12Z model guidance shows an area heavy precipitation developing Wednesday night from Steuben County northeast into the Adirondacks. The latest guidance shows an area of PVA entering western NY and enhancing forcing ahead of a strong 150+ knot jet at 300mb, with the bullseye of the left exit region passing the Western Southern Tier and into the Tug Hill by early Thursday morning. As the column continues to cool Wednesday night, dynamic cooling should cause precipitation to quickly change from rain to snow after 0Z Thursday from west to east. At this time, the highest confidence for possible heavy snow will be in line with the area mentioned above...from Steuben County to Oneida County, where more than 4 inches may fall. It is looking likely that a band of heavy snow is going to set up somewhere, based on the impressive forcing, and amounts could end up much higher where this band ends up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: BGM hitting on the potential as well...mentioning potential banding. Won't factor much for me in the SE corner of their CWA but definitely will to the north of here Meanwhile, a surface low will start to develop near Long Island and this low will deepen quickly as it tracks into western New England. The approaching upper level trough starts to become neutral to negatively tilted, slowing down its eastward movement. 12Z model guidance shows an area heavy precipitation developing Wednesday night from Steuben County northeast into the Adirondacks. The latest guidance shows an area of PVA entering western NY and enhancing forcing ahead of a strong 150+ knot jet at 300mb, with the bullseye of the left exit region passing the Western Southern Tier and into the Tug Hill by early Thursday morning. As the column continues to cool Wednesday night, dynamic cooling should cause precipitation to quickly change from rain to snow after 0Z Thursday from west to east. At this time, the highest confidence for possible heavy snow will be in line with the area mentioned above...from Steuben County to Oneida County, where more than 4 inches may fall. It is looking likely that a band of heavy snow is going to set up somewhere, based on the impressive forcing, and amounts could end up much higher where this band ends up. and the HE totals, would be a sizable storm in its own right in January lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 Nam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 What a difference one run makes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 Buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 This is starting to look real... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 I’m contemplating driving up somewhere upstate NY for the winter finale. If we get closer and there’s a shot for 15-20” somewhere I’ll do it. I give that about a 10% chance but ya never know! It’s a pretty potent ULL but it closes off too far NE. Wish the block could force it South some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 Gfs looks good.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 Definitely a little enhancement showing up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 Still some spread but good amount of hits.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Anyone on here from near like Malone NY? Wonder if that could be a good destination Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Always get a little excited for the 0z when something is lurking. I didn’t expect to be doing this again this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 5 hours ago, Syrmax said: Deep thoughts: If we are not here for the storm...did it really happen? We’ll take pictures. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said: Anyone on here from near like Malone NY? Wonder if that could be a good destination If you head that far north I think somewhere like Saranac Lake or Lake Placid with good elevation would be a better spot. Malone isn’t exactly a snowy place, downsloping off the Dacks probably limits their totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 44 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: If you head that far north I think somewhere like Saranac Lake or Lake Placid with good elevation would be a better spot. Malone isn’t exactly a snowy place, downsloping off the Dacks probably limits their totals. Thank you! Had no clue about the elevation there. The models keep showing heavy totals up that way but i learned my lesson on my last chase to Colorado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Kuchie still at it lol How much would stick during the day Thursday who knows lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 52 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: If you head that far north I think somewhere like Saranac Lake or Lake Placid with good elevation would be a better spot. Malone isn’t exactly a snowy place, downsloping off the Dacks probably limits their totals. I was aiming for those really heavy totals in the extreme N part of the state. Just saw Malone was near that. If you take the 00z NAM at face value (heh) it seems like 3 maxes like up near that area and NW, then Lake placid region, and near Syracuse. I guess Syracuse region could be a fun trip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Ok 0z. Maybe starting to see a little less on the western edge. IDK. I’m still very skeptical. It’s fun to watch though. Anything will be more than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Ok 0z. Maybe starting to see a little less on the western edge. IDK. I’m still very skeptical. It’s fun to watch though. Anything will be more than expected. I'm with you Dave...we've pretty much all been bitten hard by the models this past winter season at some point. But, much like a punched-drunk boxer, getting up just before the ref calls the fight, we go one last time! With the bulk of the snow falling overnight Wed, and temperatures (for a lot of areas) most of Thurs below freezing on pretty strong CAA, the totals that many of the models are putting out look somewhat reasonable.... ...and maybe some stout LES early Thurs night to boot!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 7 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said: I was aiming for those really heavy totals in the extreme N part of the state. Just saw Malone was near that. If you take the 00z NAM at face value (heh) it seems like 3 maxes like up near that area and NW, then Lake placid region, and near Syracuse. I guess Syracuse region could be a fun trip. Hills south of Syracuse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 6z Nambino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Solid consensus at this point in time . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Peter Hall from Channel 3 is saying 5-10" for much of CNY for the storm? We don't need a damn snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Temps aren't really that marginal.. Mid-upper 20s during the afternoon hours.. Obviously the sun angle will still be an issue somewhat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 30, 2021 Author Share Posted March 30, 2021 -20 850s in early April, thats an impressive airmass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Well, at least I might get to see what I've become accustomed to this winter while here in PA. 1 to 3 inches of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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