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Upstate/Eastern New York

BuffaloWeather
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wolfie09
wolfie09

Thought this was pretty cool . If you were in Oswego on the shores of Lake Ontario last Wednesday you probably saw something that you don’t see everyday. What’s that? The north shore of Lake Onta

LakeEffectKing
LakeEffectKing

Bring it....I made it to 100" this week, so it can be done... BTW, dog owner tip.....now that the snow is gone, if you need to clean up some accumulated droppings from your pet in your yard,  the

SouthBuffaloSteve
SouthBuffaloSteve

Never seen a rainbow form under a shelf cloud before... should of ran a video...  

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

Wpc

An area of low pressure developing across the Mid-Atlantic will lift northeast Thursday along a slowing cold front. This low will strengthen in response to rapid height falls as an anomalous mid-level trough advects east from the Great Lakes, and an intensifying divergence maxima within the RRQ of an upper jet streak. Large scale ascent will spread precipitation across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, but WAA ahead of the front suggests all precip will be rain initially. However, as the low deepens and the cold front drops slowly southeast, the column will cool rapidly to allow a p-type transition from rain to snow. This is likely to be additionally enhanced by robust fgen/deformation NW of the low. While there remains uncertainty into how much precip will occur as the column cools enough for snow, this enhanced ascent through the fgen should provide at least a burst of snowfall, enough to overcome the antecedent rain and warm conditions, especially in the terrain. WPC probabilities for 4 inches are as high as 30-40% in the Adirondacks and Tug Hill where post frontal upslope flow will enhance snowfall, and 10-20% across much of Upstate New York and into Vermont.

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vortmax

vortmax

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Wpc

An area of low pressure developing across the Mid-Atlantic will lift northeast Thursday along a slowing cold front. This low will strengthen in response to rapid height falls as an anomalous mid-level trough advects east from the Great Lakes, and an intensifying divergence maxima within the RRQ of an upper jet streak. Large scale ascent will spread precipitation across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, but WAA ahead of the front suggests all precip will be rain initially. However, as the low deepens and the cold front drops slowly southeast, the column will cool rapidly to allow a p-type transition from rain to snow. This is likely to be additionally enhanced by robust fgen/deformation NW of the low. While there remains uncertainty into how much precip will occur as the column cools enough for snow, this enhanced ascent through the fgen should provide at least a burst of snowfall, enough to overcome the antecedent rain and warm conditions, especially in the terrain. WPC probabilities for 4 inches are as high as 30-40% in the Adirondacks and Tug Hill where post frontal upslope flow will enhance snowfall, and 10-20% across much of Upstate New York and into Vermont.

Meh, not seemingly impressed. Maybe we can eek out a surprise here.

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vortmax

vortmax

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

ICON says what storm? What a season.... lol

There seems to be a lot of anafrontal-type waves this season that models appear to struggle with the specifics. Wondering if this season's long-wave pattern/teleconnections are situated uniquely this year.

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rochesterdave

rochesterdave

Posted
Posted
Just now, vortmax said:

There seems to be a lot of anafrontal-type waves this season that models appear to struggle with the specifics. Wondering if this season's long-wave pattern/teleconnections are situated uniquely this year.

Yeah man. I can’t think of an anafront system that worked out. They all went belly up at the last minute. 
It’s funny too, all the rochester mets were jumping on this one this morning. They’ll be running away soon I think. 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Posted
1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

Yeah man. I can’t think of an anafront system that worked out. They all went belly up at the last minute. 
It’s funny too, all the rochester mets were jumping on this one this morning. They’ll be running away soon I think. 

Yeah Anafront is tough to get high rates with marginal temps and you're going to need that at lower elevations. 

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah Anafront is tough to get high rates with marginal temps and you're going to need that at lower elevations. 

The caveat to that is most will fall at night in the west which would be the perfect time. I can see a sloppy, grass covering inch or two just about everywhere 

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crossbowftw3

crossbowftw3

Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

image.thumb.png.c7a95bbd6a712773a403ee56f5fb4828.pnghahahahaha

12z seems to actually have held serve with this. Could be interesting for you folks closer to the lakes. UKMet for downstate folks like me is our only shot at anything decent.

 

Edit: and even that seems questionable especially if snow falls during daytime thursday as it seems to want to do.

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted 
A stacked storm system passing over northern Quebec will swing an
ana-style cold front through the region on Wednesday, bringing
widespread rain to the area throughout the day. Temperatures will
peak early in the morning before falling through the rest of the day.

Things get a bit more interesting heading into Wednesday evening as
a late season snowstorm looks to take shape and impact the area. As
the previous system pushes northeast towards Newfoundland, the
trailing upper level longwave trough amplifies, taking on a more
negative tilt and slowing its eastward progression. Latest model
guidance has been keying in on a region of enhanced precipitation
late Wednesday night as additional PVA enhances forcing downstream
and the left exit region of a strengthening upper level jet passes
near the area. This will be especially problematic as it coincides
with temperatures dropping low enough to see a changeover to snow.
As this area of heavier precip passes across the area, higher
elevations will fall closer to freezing sooner and could see
accumulating snow sooner and greater amounts than other areas.
Not out of the question that snow across the western Southern
Tier and the Eastern Lake Ontario region could be heavy at
times.

A tough forecast this far out as final snow accumulations with this
system will be sensitive to the many factors at play, but it is
looking increasingly likely that winter weather headlines will
be needed Wednesday night into Thursday.

Forecast remains on track for the ensuing lake enhanced snows
that will be found across most of the western counties Thursday
and Thursday night, leading to some additional minor snow
accumulations during this period. Temperatures will be below
normal Thursday and Thursday night with daytime highs near or
below freezing, and overnight lows in the teens and low 20s
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mississaugasnow

mississaugasnow

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, sferic said:

I'll take 1 inch and be happy, 2-3 very happy. No unrealistic expectations not expecting 6-12..ok, but wishing nevertheless

This time of the year im wanting nothing to do with this. Looks increasingly likely though I wake up to a dusting to 1" Thursday morning. Ill take that, see all the tweets saying hilarious April fools day Mother Nature played. March was horrific for snow in Toronto and Hamilton and will end up way way below normal. If we do somehow get 1" it will actually make April seem not that bad (in the record books) 

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Seriously ticks me off that one of the best synoptic systems this season for Central NY seems to be hitting when I am in PA...where they ALL hit for 3 months straight.... Lol.... can't win.

Deep thoughts:

If we are not here for the storm...did it really happen?

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