crossbowftw3 Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 At this juncture I figure folks like @sferic and I look to probably be a bit too far away to see anything meaningful outside of perhaps a few sloppy inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 1 minute ago, crossbowftw3 said: At this juncture I figure folks like @sferic and I look to probably be a bit too far away to see anything meaningful outside of perhaps a few sloppy inches I'll take it ! I just have a feeling that they'll be an April Surprise here. Remember late March 1997 here ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 12z Gfs pretty similar to last nights euro.. Cold air may hang around just long enough for another light accumulation day 6 before we warm back up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Canadian still onboard.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 12z ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 1 hour ago, sferic said: I'll take it ! I just have a feeling that they'll be an April Surprise here. Remember late March 1997 here ? April fools day... I remember being stuck up in cooks falls/Roscoe having to miss school in the city because 17 was shutdown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 European not the greatest for kbuf CWA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 For eastern lake ontario region the gfs/euro have 3"-6", ukmet/Ggem 6+, still time to trend either direction.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 3 hours ago, sferic said: I'll take it ! I just have a feeling that they'll be an April Surprise here. Remember late March 1997 here ? My dad bought his first ever brand new snowmobile at the end of that March. I skipped school the day after the storm and we went riding on 30-36” of snow in April! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 With the lack of snowmelt we can use the liquid, about 0.4" of rain so far, pouring out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 28, 2021 Author Share Posted March 28, 2021 These temp swings are killing me while having this sinus infection. I hate this time of year. 70 one day and 30 the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 What type of storm is this? It develops along a CF and retrograde a bit? I feel like we’ve seen these all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 Wpc D3/4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Wpc D3/4 Gotta love that tilt. Hope it goes negative sooner! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 29, 2021 Author Share Posted March 29, 2021 I don't see enough cold air for this time of year. Only accumulation will be higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 29, 2021 Author Share Posted March 29, 2021 This doesn't get it done. Too weak of a low and not enough cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 0z Gfs A little over an inch liquid in the form of snow for ksyr.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 KBGM... LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 300 pm update... The major concern with this period continues to be the transition over to snow Wednesday night as temperatures quickly fall through the 30s behind the cold front. Precipitation remains likely even after the front passes through with a surface low deepening over New England, helping to reinforce cold air advection over our region, and another shortwave rippling through. Guidance continues to agree on a potential for a few inches of snow especially southeast of Lake ontario, where there will be some lake enhancement as snow showers continue through Thursday. The previous discussion continues below. 330 am update... By Wednesday evening temperatures will fall into the 30s. This drop in surface temperatures will be accompanied by rapidly falling temperatures aloft, which is should allow the rain showers to mix with and change to snow showers during the evening hours. The changeover will continue into ne PA during the overnight hours, with the entire area cold enough for snow by late Wed night/early Thur morning. The challenge with the cold side of this storm system will be attempting to determine how much precipitation develops post- frontal as a surface low forms and deepens over New England. At this time there is a signal on the latest ECMWF and CMC...and has been there consistently through the past several runs...showing an enhanced band of snow aligned with an area of Q-vector convergence, strong PVA ahead of a sharp embedded short wave, and an area of strong divergence aloft in the entrance region of a 130 kt jet. There is also support from several EC ensemble runs as well...which increases confidence in accumulating snow across portions of the forecast area on Thursday. Will need to keep a close eye on the evolution of this system as it could have some significant impacts...mainly snow. We are also watching the potential for a short period cold blast Thursday night through Friday night with overnight lows bottoming out in the teens and highs on Fri afternoon only into the lower to mid 30s. The combination of gusty northwest winds and cold temperatures will make it feel even cold...and a lot more like January than April. The cold air pouring into the region will be Canadian in origin and relatively dry, but still be cold enough to interact with the warm lake waters and trigger lake effect snow showers through this period. There is a concern for additional accumulating lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario through Friday night. The amounts may be limited by the warm surface temperatures and potentially some sun during the day. But, still cannot completely rule out accumulations during the overnight hours. Any lake effect snow showers should be ending Saturday morning and conditions remaining dry through most of the day. However, there is the potential for a weak wave to move in from the w/nw later Saturday with another shot of very light rain with temperatures climbing into the 40s and lower 50s by the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 Couple inches overnight... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 06z GFS, ups the potential tally for MBY.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 11 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: 06z GFS, ups the potential tally for MBY.... Ok I have to point this out one last time this “winter” season. We have all witnessed different varying issues with models, GFS too fast, shows fantasy storms every 10 days that never happen, Euro was losing storms like it was the Bermuda Triangle...but this one MIGHT be the most confusing...the GFS has a damn love affair with the Syracuse area. Every storm, and this one is no different, it has a shit ton of snow for KSYR that never comes close to fruition...this one shows 22”!!! Lmao I wonder, and it’s a big task, if there’s a way to add up the virtual snow the GFS has forecast for Syracuse. If I were to take a guess it’s well over 300”. Any reason it has this bias? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 This damn wind as been crazy. Started early last evening and still going. Just a constant rumbling sound, like a freight train rolling through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 29, 2021 Author Share Posted March 29, 2021 Woke up to graupel and a white ground, easy pass ready for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 I guess NWS has given up on the gfs for the year lol The progressive pattern of the past week or so will become temporarily blocked during this period...with a stacked storm system eventually taking shape over the southern Quebec. This evolution could include a problematic late season snowstorm for New England and the Adirondacks...and possibly as far west as the Tug Hill. Higher confidence will be given to the ensuing lake snows that will be found across most of the western counties Thursday and Thursday night. There is relatively high confidence that just about everyone in the region will pick up at least minor snow accumulations during this period and possibly a plowable snowfall for the Tug Hill and areas southeast of both lakes. Before we get back to winter though...an ana-style cold front will slowly move through the region on Wednesday. Have bumped pops up a bit and also changed pcpn from convective to stratiform (all rain). The changeover to snow Wednesday night has also been changed to stratiform. Not out of the question that the snow across the Ern Lake Ontario region could be heavy at times during the second half of Wednesday night. As is typically the case...used a blend of ECMWF and Can NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 Throw the RGEM into the mix. Because it likes Rochester . Nobody is going to use kuchie with this one. But why? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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