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Upstate/Eastern New York


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Days like today remind you that you still live pretty far north, despite global warming. You can get ice pellets when its nearly June and you can get them in September. Only 3 months where that isn't possible. In the high peaks of the Adirondacks you can get snow in any month. There is still snow up there. 

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To start out the day Sunday, the center of the now closed upper low
will linger overhead. It finally begins to lift eastward across New
England as core of upper jet lifts ahead of the trough in the
afternoon, with heights starting to slowly rise over much of the
area. Deterministic and ensemble guidance is trending towards an
even slower departure of the pesky upper low as it takes on a more
negative tilt and becomes more of an open wave. The slower
progression of the low will allow some extra wrap-around moisture to
advect into the area, and with additional PVA from the low, a
slightly more pessimistic precipitation forecast is in store for
eastern portions of the area Sunday. Though it won`t be a washout,
given these latest trends, have increased PoPs some mainly west of
Rochester from the Finger Lakes region up through the North Country
for Sunday afternoon and the first half of Sunday night.

In regards to temperatures, Sunday will see a continuation of the
warming trend from Saturday. However, stubborn cloud cover and a
northeast wind flowing across Lake Ontario will still result in only
highs in the low to mid 60s, with mid/upper 50s for further inland
locations. Lows will bottom out in the 40s Sunday night... A little
extra cloud cover east of Lake Ontario should prevent temps from
dropping further into the upper 30s overnight.

Thankfully, Monday is still shaping up to be the best day of the 3
day holiday weekend. Upper level ridging and surface high pressure
will keep conditions dry, with partly to mostly sunny skies and a
weaker gradient wind out of the W/SW expected. The warming trend
will continue for Memorial Day with highs in the upper 60s and low
70s, which are still a few degrees below normal but a welcomed
improvement from the previous few days. Weak lake breezes will keep
immediate lakeshores cooler. Monday night should remain dry, but an
approaching shortwave will slightly increase rain chances in the
second half of the night. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s to
upper 40s, slightly cooler up on the Tug Hill.
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