wolfie09 Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 Enjoy lol Sizzlecuse will probably hit 90° one of the next two days.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 If the gfs is to be believed early/mid week the SE Ridge will start to break down with more"seasonable" temps for the latter part of the week.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 Car thermometer reading 90° just north of the sizzlecuse..High of 76° Imby so far... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Strong upper ridge continues across the region Friday. ECMWF deterministic data shows 500 mb height values around 591 dm by 12Z Friday, which is above the maximum moving average per the SPC climatology sounding page. This will result in continued limited precipitation chances as the better moisture axis holds to the north and west of the area along the periphery of the ridge axis. Friday continues to look like the warmest day of this stretch with the increasing height trend, with most high temperatures well into the 80s and could even see a 90F reading. Dry and mild conditions expected Friday night. Somewhat better chances for a few showers or a thunderstorm arrive Saturday as height fields start to lower as a shortwave drops southeast through the area. Humidity levels will also pick up. Though this activity could happen anywhere, the better chances will be from the Genesee Valley into the North County. The best chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms will be Sunday as a potent air mass changing cold front pushes through the region. At this time, an afternoon arrival of the front looks to be favorable for some organized convection with the potential for some stronger storms. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Any leftover showers will taper off Sunday evening as the cold front continues to press south, before becoming stationary across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic states. High pressure building southeast across our area in the wake of the cold frontal passage will bring a much drier and refreshingly cooler airmass to the area for Sunday night through Monday night with mainly dry weather expected, as shower activity remains south of the NY/PA line closer to the now stationary boundary. Late Monday night into Tuesday increased moisture and warmer air will start to make a return as the stalled out boundary to our south and southwest starts to make a return to the northeast as a warm front. This will be owed to clockwise return flow around high pressure as it moves east off the southern New England coast. Upper ridge tries to reestablish itself aloft, however quickly gets flattened out as several shortwaves move through the mid and upper level flow. This will renew the chance for some showers and perhaps a few rumbles thunder for Tuesday through Wednesday. Otherwise, after a refreshingly dry and less humid day on Monday with daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 60s, daytime highs for Tuesday and Wednesday will return to above normal levels. Expect highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s both days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 You warm guys must be loving this, matt probably melted lol 89° as of 1:45 pm.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 Sizzlecuse came through today with a record high of 92. I hope this isn’t a preview of this summer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 BUF hitting the 90 mark this evening as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 20, 2021 Author Share Posted May 20, 2021 Just hiked angels landing, by far the scariest hike I’ve ever done. Didn’t realize 14 people died hiking it until after I was done. It’s been mid 90s here entire trip. In valley of Grand Canyon it was 115. Far too hot for me, ready for a little cool air. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 88 at BUF approaching 8pm. Shades of last year starting to appear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 Kind of a mixed bag wrt temps on the GFS, several bouts of +anomalies over the next couple weeks with the occasional average-below Average regime.. This is at 850mb.. You will also note the greatest anomalies are mainly inland/GL's..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 13 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Kind of a mixed bag wrt temps on the GFS, several bouts of +anomalies over the next couple weeks with the occasional average-below Average regime.. This is at 850mb.. You will also note the greatest anomalies are mainly inland/GL's..lol I could use some serious rain to top off the pool, otherwise I'll be calling the water truck. The heat is nice though for a change. Sizzle Sizzle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 We have already hit 80° as of 10:30 am. It looks we have a good shot at 90°+ today which is a rarity in summer let alone may lol This heat is causing my backyard to smell like the salmon river lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 Partly cloudy here do keeping the heat at bay a bit... I’ll take it, early this week was perfect, mid to upper 70s for a couple hours... sigh... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 I have a bunch of blue Jays that live on my property.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 Another day of summer-like temperatures expected today as a strong upper ridge axis remains centered over the area. Today will start off mainly sunny for most areas with only some cirrus drifting into the region, except for some more persistent mid level clouds over the North Country. By afternoon, perhaps a bit more cirrus than yesterday, but with thermal profiles very similar see little reason why temperatures will not be close to yesterday`s values. Most areas reaching the mid to upper 80s with lower 90s quite possible for interior sections of the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes. Records highs (BUF 90F/1977...ROC 92F/1977...ART 83F/2012) for the day will certainly be challenged. Dewpoints for the most part should remain below 60F, so heat index will not be a concern. Atmosphere should be pretty well capped, so the expectation is that most everyone will remain dry, although a few CAMs do suggest an isolated shower/storm may pop up across the interior Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes. Very warm, but quiet tonight. Temperatures only lowering into the mid to upper 60s, although normally colder interior sections may get into the upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A shortwave will pass to the north of the region Saturday, which will cause a surface trough to cross the area from north to south. This will cause a limited chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday, with any activity being quite scattered. The best chances will lie along the lake breeze boundaries that form over Niagara county and the St. Lawrence Valley. Due to the uptick in activity, cloud cover will be more prominent Saturday which will act to cool off the day time highs. Expect highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Loss of daytime heating will act to stabilize the air enough to diminish any remaining shower/storm activity Saturday Night. Additionally, the exit of the shortwave aloft will act to erode the remaining activity too. Another, yet stronger shortwave Sunday will push a cold front across the region Sunday. As model guidance packages conquer on the fact that there will be a cold frontal passage, there is a better chance for shower and thunderstorm activity. While there still remains some discrepancies between the models with regards to timing, consensus between the models push the front from north to south across the region in the late morning and afternoon. An afternoon frontal passage, will allow for storms to become severe. As of right now, the SPC has placed the entire forecast region under a marginal risk for severe storms. Afternoon instability looks best in the far Southern Tier with MUCAPE values growing into a couple of thousand Joules per kilogram. Additionally, enough shear (Bulk shear around 40 knots) will support any storms to develop a severe aspect. After the passage of the front, notably cooler air will filter across the region Sunday night with lows dropping into the mid 40s to low 50s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 So today didn't turn out to bad especially considering it was 80° at 10:30 AM lol We had a brief high of 86° as winds were extremely variable and on and off cloud cover.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will sag southeastward and eventually exit the area on Thursday as the upper jet axis eventually moves southward toward Pennsylvania by next weekend. This allows for drastically cooler air to move into New York state. In fact, consensus 850 hPa temperatures fall as far as the 0 to +2C range over Lake Ontario late in the week and the start of the Memorial Day holiday weekend. At the moment, due to uncertainty in the magnitude and progression of the cold air mass, temperature forecasts are in the 60s. However, if these projections hold and clouds/showers are around as would be likely with end of the week 500 hPa temperatures falling toward -16C, even colder temperatures would result. Regardless, a much cooler second half of next week is in store than the first half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 First rain drops I have felt in 11 days lol Nice and cool in the low 60s.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 We got just over .1 inch of rain from that line of showers. Enough to settle the dust at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted May 24, 2021 Share Posted May 24, 2021 Back in the 30's this morning at 38, felt beautiful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted May 24, 2021 Share Posted May 24, 2021 We made it down to 41° for the low, forecast was 45°..Felt great sleeping with the windows open lol Already back up to 57°.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 24, 2021 Author Share Posted May 24, 2021 Hiked 62 miles, drove 32 hours, and visited 7 national parks in 10 days. Looks like I brought the cold air back. =( 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted May 24, 2021 Share Posted May 24, 2021 44 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Hiked 62 miles, drove 32 hours, and visited 7 national parks in 10 days. Looks like I brought the cold air back. =( Thanks for bringing Spring back... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted May 24, 2021 Share Posted May 24, 2021 Even with the couple/few cooler days coming up CPC going with higher probabilities of AN temps.. (starting memorial day weekend) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted May 24, 2021 Share Posted May 24, 2021 Tuesday will start fairly cloudy as a warm front pushes across our region. As a warm front pushes through our region we should see the return of partly sunny skies during the afternoon hours. This combined with a much warmer airmass behind the warm front (850 hPa temperatures rising to 15 to 17C) will bring a return to summers heat and humidity, with afternoon temperatures ranging through the 80s. Cooler areas tomorrow will be just to the northeast of the eastern Great Lakes where a southwest wind should be enough to push a cool lake breeze across metro Buffalo and NW Jefferson county. Tuesday will also feature increased humidity, especially with it still being May. Dewpoints are expected to return to the lower 60s, and may even reach mid 60s across the Finger Lakes region. Given the increased in instability and developing lake breeze boundaries a few blossoming showers or thunderstorms remain possible, but lacking a synoptic trigger within the overhead ridge of high pressure widespread convection is not likely. Best chances will range from the Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes/SE Lake Ontario region, with storms feeding off the increased surface dewpoints, and lift along the lake breeze boundary. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Tuesday evening any diurnal showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes will end, leaving most of the night dry. A mid level shortwave is forecast to pass to the north of Lake Ontario overnight, and this feature may bring a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm late Tuesday night to the Saint Lawrence Valley. A southwesterly breeze in a very warm airmass will keep temperatures very mild overnight, with lows only around 70 on the lake plains of Western NY, and mid to upper 60s across interior areas and east of Lake Ontario. Wednesday will be potentially the most active day of the week. A convectively augmented mid level shortwave and pre-frontal trough will move from southern Ontario Wednesday morning to Central and Eastern NY by late afternoon, providing the ascent and focus for scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. The approaching right entrance region of a 80+ knot upper level jet will also provide some support for large scale ascent. The timing of the system has trended faster in the 12Z guidance, with showers possibly entering Western NY in the morning and then spreading to Central NY by early afternoon. The faster timing is an unfavorable trend for severe weather, as there may be too much cloud cover and showers too early in the day to allow for effective destabilization. If the timing holds, a relatively better risk of severe weather would be east of our area in Central and Eastern NY where better timing in relation to the diurnal cycle is found. If sufficient destabilization occurs, increasing deep layer shear and large scale ascent from the approach of the mid level trough may support organized clusters of storms with a primary risk of isolated damaging winds. A stout southwest wind off Lake Erie (gusts up to 40mph) will produce an expansive stable lake shadow in the afternoon, lowering the risk of rain and storms along the corridor from Buffalo to Rochester. The showers and storms associated with the pre-frontal trough will move east of the area by early evening. The actual cold front and a stronger synoptic scale mid level trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night, and may produce a few more scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. The cold front will exit to the southeast late Wednesday night, with dry weather returning for Thursday. A much cooler and drier airmass will move into the region, with highs in the mid 60s in most areas Thursday. Lows Thursday night will drop down well into the 40s as cold advection continues on low level northeast flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 Warm one today, 77° currently, forecast high of 80°, should have no problem getting there with mainly a S/SE flow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 Maybe some severe tomorrow afternoon? So far this year we have heard barely a rumble of thunder here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 Latest from SPC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 Receiving a nice downpour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 These are pretty much high temps on the gfs for Friday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now