TugHillMatt Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 So the other day, wolfie posted a forecast discussion about temps making it to the mid 70s next week...and I "jokingly corrected" it to "and Syracuse will be 80 degrees... NEVER fails these days in Sizzlercuse.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 These are pretty much max temps on the euro for Wed..(Oswego CO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: These are pretty much max temps on the euro for Wed..(Oswego CO) Gfs a bit warmer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 European keeps the front south of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 24, 2021 Author Share Posted April 24, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: European keeps the front south of us... The absolute worst. I think we get into the heat here, always goes further north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 24, 2021 Author Share Posted April 24, 2021 I'm getting A/C installed today, I wanted to test it out next week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 Yeah this is my first year having Central AC, I tried it out a couple weeks ago when we hit 80° lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 Still looks like a mild day is on tap for Wednesday. However, a weak wave of low pressure passing to the north now looks like it will nudge the cold frontal boundary southward across the eastern Great Lakes. This would result in cooler MaxT`s depending on how far south the front makes it. Have kept with the previous forecast with low to mid 70s. Wednesday night through Friday, lots of uncertainty during this time period. ECMWF sends the cold front through the Lower Lakes during the Wednesday night time frame with a brief period of dry conditions. However, right on its heels low pressure over the Mid- Mississippi Valley quickly races NE with wet weather returning for Thursday and then possibly turning sharply colder for Friday. Maybe even some snow showers? On the flip side, the GFS stalls the boundary over the region with much milder yet unsettled as several waves ride along this boundary through Friday. Low confidence forecast at this point and have made only minor adjustments for now to MaxT`s and POPs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Still looks like a mild day is on tap for Wednesday. However, a weak wave of low pressure passing to the north now looks like it will nudge the cold frontal boundary southward across the eastern Great Lakes. This would result in cooler MaxT`s depending on how far south the front makes it. Have kept with the previous forecast with low to mid 70s. Wednesday night through Friday, lots of uncertainty during this time period. ECMWF sends the cold front through the Lower Lakes during the Wednesday night time frame with a brief period of dry conditions. However, right on its heels low pressure over the Mid- Mississippi Valley quickly races NE with wet weather returning for Thursday and then possibly turning sharply colder for Friday. Maybe even some snow showers? On the flip side, the GFS stalls the boundary over the region with much milder yet unsettled as several waves ride along this boundary through Friday. Low confidence forecast at this point and have made only minor adjustments for now to MaxT`s and POPs. One more? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 A bit on the chilly side today, maxed out at 56°(11am) but winds have since become more"westerly" with a drop in temps.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 Another chilly day on tap, made it down to 33° with a forecast high of 44°.. Tues-thurs is now forecasted upper 50s-mid 60s... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Another chilly day on tap, made it down to 33° with a forecast high of 44°.. Tues-thurs is now forecasted upper 50s-mid 60s... We still have mid 60s to mid 70s (Wed) in forecast. Hope it holds. Golf league starts wednesday. Could be rare good timing for starting so early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 26, 2021 Author Share Posted April 26, 2021 Still looks ok here, but with rain chances. Mid 70s tues/wed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 Some much needed rain.. Broad upper level ridge shifts from the central CONUS to the Great Lakes and Northeast. Jet energy and shortwaves will lift along the edge of the ridge to support bouts of lift and increased deeper moisture which will ultimately focus better chances of rain. At the sfc, low pressure from central plains will expand over the western Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday while a warm front lifts across the Great Lakes and eventually over the Northeast CONUS Tuesday night into Wednesday. Warm front slower to lift through on Tuesday so lowered temps from Genesee valley to east of Lake Ontario with now low to mid 60s at best with plenty of cloud cover. Temps could still reach lower and maybe mid 70s over especially southwest NYS where clouds clear earlier in the day and sfc warm front begins to move through. Overall idea of forecast Tuesday into Tuesday night stayed same though with warm, moist advection aloft to north of sfc warm front supporting small chances for showers mainly over North Country on Tuesday into Tuesday night. Hint of a couple shortwaves moving through as well along edge of warmer air aloft will modulate coverage and intensity of showers. Seems elevated CAPE is too far southwest to include thunder through Tuesday night, so have left any mention out for now. Sfc warm front makes it through area on Tuesday night so still looks like warm night with lows only in the 50s and maybe staying near 60 along Lake Erie shore. On Wednesday, sfc-H85 warm front and associated shortwaves running along edge of ridge aloft will result in greatest focus for showers through early afternoon along and north of Lake Ontario, but also including the North Country and St. Lawrence River Valley. Kept pops high all day in these areas. Otherwise, with sfc low still west over central Great Lakes, expect minimum in shower coverage elsewhere through midday. By early afternoon though with shortwave hinted at moving into western NY and temps across most areas south of Lake Ontario warming well into the 70s and dewpoints climbing well into the 50s, will see some build up of sfc based instability, perhaps up to 500 j/kg of MUCAPE. Moisture may be lacking though in the warm sector, so away from the warm front boundary, kept pops only in the chance range for some showers and possible thunderstorms. On Wednesday night, seems there may be a lull in showers and possible thunderstorms as lead shortwave shifts toward New England and we await developing upper level trough and resulting downstream warm, moist advection over the Ohio Valley. Cannot rule out a shower, but chances will probably be lower until later at night over southwest NYS. Lows again in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Approaching upper level trough and increasing upper level jet and sfc warm front lifting toward region from another wave of sfc low pressure are pointing toward a wet day with widespread showers and maybe a rumble of thunder with some elevated instability shown closer toward sfc warm front. Also looks like the wave of low pressure will lift across our region through the day, heading toward New England Thursday night while deepening. Overall, pops will stay higher over eastern areas Thursday night while trending down over western NY. By Friday, sfc low will continue to deepen over Canadian Maritimes while ridge will be building northern Ontario to western Great Lakes. A cooler blustery day is in store with some scattered showers. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph look possible. Highs on Friday only in the lower to middle 50s. Cold air advection Friday night into Saturday (H85 temps lowering to -5c) will result in some snow mixing with the rain over higher terrain, especially east of Lake Ontario where better moisture will be located closer to upper level trough and sfc low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 26, 2021 Author Share Posted April 26, 2021 I hate the rain and hate the cold this time of year. Easy pass on both. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 Understandable lol But you also don't wanna get to far behind with the summers being dry and all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 Not warming much today under W/NW flow.. On the bright side it's sunny lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 26, 2021 Author Share Posted April 26, 2021 I actually like dry summers. My yard is brutal when its wet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Not warming much today under W/NW flow.. On the bright side it's sunny lol Got to a whopping 44 here, damn wind makes it feel a very cold lol. I hate these low 40's and windy days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: I actually like dry summers. My yard is brutal when its wet. Muddy paw season in full effect right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 27 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: Muddy paw season in full effect right now. I went mountain biking with our Golden this morning. Some of the trail was actually frozen mud! But she still needed a hosing off when we got home. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 European was moist for this upcoming week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 27, 2021 Share Posted April 27, 2021 Kbuf morning discussion.. Quote Summerlike pattern in terms of chances for showers and thunderstorms next couple days. The significant widespread warmup that looked to occur is not as likely, though good part of the area south of Lake Ontario to the NY/PA line today and Wed will still see temps in the 70s. Upper air pattern features broad trough over western CONUS with large, flat ridge from central to eastern CONUS. Belt of stronger westerlies runs from central Plains to western Great Lakes. At the sfc, a warm front is lifting across southern portions of the western Great Lakes while sfc high is centered over western Quebec. Ridge aloft only slowly moves east through Wed morning before getting flattened some as stronger shortwave trough crests it. Sfc warm front gradually lifts over eastern Great Lakes into Wed, though due to convection riding west to east to the north of the front and the front encountering cooler lakes, expect the front to not completely make it to the north of our forecast area. Instead expect it to maybe make it to south shore of Lake Ontario before dropping back across the rest of the area late Wed. Now to the details. Batch of showers more tied to the H85 warm front continues to exit eastern Lake Ontario region this morning. Thus far, most locations impacted by the rain have measured a few hundredths of rain. Looks like sfc temps have probably warmed enough enough east of Lake Ontario to limit potential for any freezing rain. Otherwise, area of showers with stronger embedded wave aloft sliding across Georgian Bay and north of Lake Ontario should reach eastern Lake Ontario region rest of this morning into early afternoon. Could also be a few showers later today as far south as south shore of Lake Ontario just ahead of arriving sfc warm front. Highs today will show a range across that front, with upper 50s/60F North Country to mid 70s near NY/PA state line. Tonight, appears embedded shortwave will emerge out of convection currently over Upper Mississippi valley and western Great Lakes on edge of greater MUCAPE and just to north of sfc warm front. Main focus for this wave and higher pops will be over North Country, along H85 temp gradient and north of sfc warm front. Increased pops to likely for those areas. At this time, appears better elevated instability feeding the convection this morning over western Great Lakes fades before making it into our area, so have not included thunder tonight. Lows still showing the range across the sfc warm front, with 40s North Country to 55-60F western NY. On Wednesday, a lot of moving parts are at play for the forecast. Decent signal that sfc warm front stays nearly stationary across our region as northerly winds that are reinforced from showers tonight across northern Lake Ontario to the North Country keep front from moving north of the south shore of Lake Ontario. In fact, could be some marine/advection type fog that could impact south shore of Lake Ontario through the day. Even to the south of warm front there are indications intervals of low-mid clouds may cut down on potential warming. Similar to Lake Ontario, rain showers moving into western NY through the morning and higher dewpoints into the 50s flowing atop the cooler waters of Lake Erie may lead to fog or at least stratus closer to Lake Erie. Based on this, tempered warming along Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Areas near NY/PA line to western Finger Lakes seem to be in line with best chance of seeing afternoon temps well into the 70s, with a lower 80F degree not out of question as long as clouds are not a factor. Showers in the morning will be due to stronger wave sliding from Upper Great Lakes toward southern Ontario and eventually southern Quebec in the aftn. Once again highest pops with this wave will be over North Country as it has looked for a while now. On the southern edge of this better forcing where temps reach the 70s and dewpoints surge into the 50s, MLCAPE may reach 750-1000J/kg and there is ample shear over 40 kts to support stronger updrafts and some risk of a severe storm. H7 winds due west at 40-50 kts, so main area of concern would be NY/PA border to western Finger Lakes and not much farther north than that. However, if the warm front ends up farther north, all these expectations would have to be shifted north as well. Also see that high-res guidance is not as restricted in location as this forecast with stronger thunderstorm potential even closer to Lake Ontario and as far north as St. Lawrence river valley. SPC has introduced marginal risk for severe on day2/Wed and that seems reasonable given the shear. Location will be the main thing to fine tune. Forecast mentions slight chances of thunder all areas and chance in the corridor where temps will reach well into the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Wednesday night and Thursday, a brief lull in the showers is expected late in the evening Wednesday into early Thursday morning as the shortwave trough tracks east of the area. Additional showers will fill in from the southwest Thursday morning as a plume of moisture tracks northeast ahead of an approaching area of low pressure. Showers, followed by the low pressure will generally track across the region along a west to east oriented frontal boundary that originally tracked over the region from the earlier shortwave trough. Deviations north or south with this boundary will dictate rain amounts, as well as temps for Thursday. As of now though, looks like a soggy period for most areas across Western and North Central NY. Some thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday evening, and then to a lesser extent on Thursday afternoon. Temperatures on Wednesday night will be in the mid to upper 40s for the North Country, where the above mentioned boundary is more likely to pass over. Temperatures in the low to mid 50s south of Lake Ontario, where timing certainty for the frontal passage is a bit less clear. Highs on Thursday will be in the low to mid 60s from north to south respectively. But again, depending on exact placement of the front, temps may be a bit warmer or cooler. Thursday night, showers will taper off from west to east toward daybreak on Friday morning. Timing with the back edge of the main area of showers is a bit unclear still as different guidance solutions and track of the system dictate how quickly the area of low pressure moves through. As the area of low pressure moves across the region, a cold front will move across the region as well, causing a cooling trend for the next few days. Temperatures on Thursday night will be in the mid to upper 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 27, 2021 Share Posted April 27, 2021 Well at least you guys out west are enjoying some warmth..Kbuf already exceeded forecast high.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 27, 2021 Author Share Posted April 27, 2021 Yeah perfect day out. Going disc golfing after work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 27, 2021 Share Posted April 27, 2021 Turned out to be a pretty nice day once the Sun broke out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted April 28, 2021 Share Posted April 28, 2021 Beautiful yesterday here. Today looks nice too, though nowhere near the 80's like earlier thought. 72 forecast here, about perfect in my world. Snow showers possible Friday night again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 28, 2021 Share Posted April 28, 2021 Let's see how this goes today... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted April 28, 2021 Share Posted April 28, 2021 Just barely in marginal. I’m gonna assume things will begin to fall apart on approach here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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