TugHillMatt Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: The system is never really west of you guys so WNY is looking good as of now lol The low is just south of CNY pumping up that warmth..My proximity to the lake will at least give me a punchers chance lol It's so bloody frustrating. I think Climate Change has affected Syracuse 10x anywhere else.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 BGM is for sure going with the far north tracks as well...which can be seen looking at the forecast. They don't even have snow in the forecast at all for the Cuse tomorrow night. "Rain and snow showers" for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 2 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Had to consult “The Book”... 1901 - April 20 - 9.7” in Buffalo with over a foot south and east of the city. The Pan American expo was slated to start on May 1 and was pushed back 3 weeks due to the damage caused. 1859 - April 23 - 18” was measured downtown during the William Ives record keeping time frame. I was just going off KBUF records. If you include the entire area the southern tier has had some big April snows as wolfie posted that was one of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 NAM is furthest NW, its been pretty persistent. I think you still toss it, no other model agrees with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Looking good,. Western NY! Need this to be weaker and thus have more of a West to East movement for here. The stronger Low with the more due-north movement is no good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Going to be a lot to digest in the next hour... lol... one thing we also need to factor is in the lakes. Erie’s up to 43, Ontario 44. Based on where the surface flow is coming from could see a warm layer ooze on shore and wreck some p type havoc. That immediate downtown area through SB right down 62 into Hamburg could have some added obstacles to overcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: NAM is furthest NW Meet the Mesos....waaaaay too much of a northern movement of the Low. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: NAM is furthest NW, its been pretty persistent. I think you still toss it, no other model agrees with it. All mesos are way NW. I find with these types of systems they usually are NW of the globals and usually end up more right. These storms almost always track further NW than guidance shows so the mesos persistently showing this gives me great pause. I could see it happening just like SBS said with the lower elevations especially within a few miles of the lake staying a mix or even plain rain for a majority of the event while Niagara Falls or Lockport sees 4-6”+. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 It's so interesting to me that for the last system that hit New England, BGM wanted nothing to do with the models that were showing more of a Northwestern track, giving us some possible snow here. They were obviously correct. Now, they're going with the farthest NW models for this...still wanting nothing to do with much snow. They'll probably be correct. It's like they know how it doesn't snow here anymore...lol. West or east. Unfortunately, this is looking like the western track that all the systems took this year IF they didn't take the eastern track up through SE NY and southern New England. I would love the globals to be correct. But, who knows...they might show something similar to this with the 00Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 11 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Going to be a lot to digest in the next hour... lol... one thing we also need to factor is in the lakes. Erie’s up to 43, Ontario 44. Based on where the surface flow is coming from could see a warm layer ooze on shore and wreck some p type havoc. That immediate downtown area through SB right down 62 into Hamburg could have some added obstacles to overcome. I mean lake temps were in the 60s for the October storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 49 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I brought this up earlier today. This could have wide ranging effects that would crush the cherry crop, and possibly the apple and peach crop as well. This is a terrible time for this. Not that commercial growers have an easy solution, but tomorrow afternoon I’m putting up a tarp supported by a couple ladders to protect our sour cherry tree. Hopefully another pollen producer will make it through the freeze so we can get our fruit crop this year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: I mean lake temps were in the 60s for the October storm. Did high precip rates help the snow overcome the warm air near the immediate shore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 As long as it's not a heavy covering, a layer of snow might be helpful to have on the trees to insulate them from below freezing temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Not much difference with the rgem fwiw.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Not much difference with the rgem fwiw.. Yeah, it's ever-so-slightly south in Western and Central NY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 1 hour ago, WNash said: Disls high precip rates help the snow overcome the warm air near the immediate shore? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 GFS RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 WRF models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Looking good, Buffalo! For us here.... lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 WWA for all of WNY. 3-6” with less along the lakeshore. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday morning commute. This will be a heavy, wet snow, and may result in isolated power outages and downed tree limbs. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow accumulations will be lower along and immediate lakeshores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Updated maps. Expected and High End. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 10 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Updated maps. Expected and High End. I’m smelling an overarching event. NWS discussed banding of 1-2” an hour snowfall rates after midnight tonight. Pardon the term but this is the perfect storm scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Makes no sence why all of wny isn't in a advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: I’m smelling an overarching event. NWS discussed banding of 1-2” an hour snowfall rates after midnight tonight. Pardon the term but this is the perfect storm scenario. Well see what happens. I’m expecting about 2 inches at my place, 3” for BuffaloWeather, and about 4-5” for you out there on Transit. Keep expectations low and if it’s higher you’re pleasantly surprised. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 1 hour ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Well see what happens. I’m expecting about 2 inches at my place, 3” for BuffaloWeather, and about 4-5” for you out there on Transit. Keep expectations low and if it’s higher you’re pleasantly surprised. While I also subscribe to this mentality, I can’t help but laugh at how the few of us on this weather forum are the opposite of the other 99% of society who would prefer the opposite. For this reason I also have to clarify whenever I reference a “good winter” or “bad winter” in conversation since my definition of a good winter is the opposite of most people’s definition! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 It appears that there will be a window of at least several hours late tonight and Wednesday morning when the snowfall rates will be heavy enough not have too much of a problem sticking to grassy and untreated surfaces at onset. In fact, some mesoscale guidance suggesting the potential for snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour in some areas. A challenging part of the forecast is trying to figure out how much snow is able to accumulate on warmer pavement surfaces which could limit snowfall amounts, but this should only be an issue very early on. Once paved surfaces get a layer of snow, accumulation will certainly be no problem thereafter. Enhancement from the lakes could also come into play as the flow turns more northerly which could send amounts a bit higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Everything is showing a WNY special...which can only mean congrats to Toronto!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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