TugHillMatt Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Meh. No more stronger or it'll be north and for sure screw over the 'Cuse. We need a weaker, "meh" system to get some less impressive snows here, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Icon little weaker and South.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Latest map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Binghamton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 high end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 GEFS ENS have strong signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Yeah several of the members shoot that warmth into CNY which is why the mean looks like that..I guess we'll have to wait and see lol Timing is also worse for CNY with the heaviest overhead after day break Wed morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Snow looks to fall during the worst diurnal period. Mid day on Wednesday. Climatologically, it is going to be a bear to overcome all the things opposing accumulations. If I were creating a forecast map I’d be leaning very conservative. I’m talking an inch or less in Buf and Roc. Hope I’m wrong. But heck, getting an inch during daylight hours, at this time of year, is pretty remarkable. Bristol/ Boston/ Wyoming hills might do much better. I dunno... most models are showing the snow start/transition occurring between 12am-4am. If we get a solid coating down before sunrise could be interesting. Heaviest precip bands look to push through between 6am-12pm so if rates are high enough cooling could overcome it. All depends just how strong the banding ends up being...Skeptical but optimistic... honestly would take the pass on this storm and keep the spring vibes going... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 LR high rez Canadian, obviously still going.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 Feels weird, just mowed the lawn in shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Mid-upper 20s at 2pm on the hrdps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: To lazy to look now... wonder what our snowiest April day is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 4 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: I’m shocked they didn’t stop a WSW on us I think the watch window is over at this point. Even the high end 6-8” would still kinda fall into an advisory. Add in the uncertainty and the busted watch and warnings from the storm 3 weeks ago I’m thinking we have advisories up tomorrow morning for all WNY... maybe warnings for So Erie and Catt County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: To lazy to look now... wonder what our snowiest April day is? Has to be from 1975. 1975 Over 12 inches of snow fell at the Buffalo Airport between the 3rd and 5th of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 Snowiest Aprils 15.7 1885 15.0 1975 13.9 1904 13.8 1894 13.1 1961 12.0 1957 11.4 1886 10.9 1982 10.4 1901 9.9 1990 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 The one and only notable april LES event (to my knowledge).. Granted it was over several days lol Duration: 90 hours+/- Prime Feature: Remarkable long lasting out of season event. Strong diurnal flavor. This event capped off a memorable 2006-07 season as one of the most intense and long lasting cold periods for so late in the season set off some impressive lake snows east and southeast of the Lakes. It was the first "named" event in the month of April in the 13 year history of lake storms. This combined with the massive October storm to bracket the winter season with the earliest and latest events on record. The event began late Wednesday the 4th following a sharp cold front. A massive upper level low then set up over Quebec and poured near record cold across the eastern two thirds of the nation for several days. Most of the Lakes were open again after mild weather in late March...but eastern Lake Erie still had a good deal of ice cover. Still...the moist northwest flow brought residual moisture from the Upper Lakes and impinged on the Chautauqua ridge and dropped up to a foot of upslope/lake enhanced snow there. Several inches also fell down into the Jamestown area. For the next few days...lake snows became more organized during the late night and early morning periods...breaking up into cellular activity during the afternoon and early evening hours. The heavier accumulations were at night. The Thursday night-Friday morning period brought 6-12" to much of Oswego county and southern Tug Hill and also another 6 to 12 across Chautauqua county...and a surprise 4 to 7 inches across Niagara County. Then...Friday night-Saturday morning period saw an intense band across southern Jefferson county...with somewhat of a repeat along the south shore of the Lake Saturday night and Sunday morning. During the afternoon and early evenings...brief heavy snow showers occurred...but accumulated little. Conditions finally moderated enough to shut down any lake snows late Sunday as inversion lowered and 850 mb temps rose slightly. The totals were impressive...but settled fast due to the season....so no more than a foot was on the ground at any one time anywhere. Very little fell in the Buffalo area....and Rochester caught a bit only Sunday morning. The event was long lasting and out of season. The totals were impressive...but fell mainly at night in lightly populated areas...melting off on roadways during the day. It therefore earns three *** stars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Had to consult “The Book”... 1901 - April 20 - 9.7” in Buffalo with over a foot south and east of the city. The Pan American expo was slated to start on May 1 and was pushed back 3 weeks due to the damage caused. 1859 - April 23 - 18” was measured downtown during the William Ives record keeping time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 If this plays out with 4”+ going to be a lot of agricultural impacts. Found this map on the “Spring Leaf Bloom Anomaly”. Not only is this a very late season storm, the WNY area is running 2 to almost 3 weeks early on spring blooming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Would be a fitting end to the "season" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 36 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: If this plays out with 4”+ going to be a lot of agricultural impacts. Found this map on the “Spring Leaf Bloom Anomaly”. Not only is this a very late season storm, the WNY area is running 2 to almost 3 weeks early on spring blooming. I brought this up earlier today. This could have wide ranging effects that would crush the cherry crop, and possibly the apple and peach crop as well. This is a terrible time for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Would be a fitting end to the "season" lol Lol. We suck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 $5 the models all shit out on this upcoming run and muff this thing out to left field? Any takers? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 The system is never really west of you guys so WNY is looking good as of now lol The low is just south of CNY pumping up that warmth..My proximity to the lake will at least give me a punchers chance lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Of course the NAMs and looks like the mesos are being stubborn with this being north. Where's our easterly shift? Just don't want to cool off the Sizzlercuse. Looking excellent for you Buffalo guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Yup That mix line... wow... reminds me of the Christmas Eve/Day storm here how the NAM just ran. No wiggle room on that one... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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