BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 11 degrees in NE Ohio has to be pretty rare cold for late April 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 9 Degrees showing up in NE PA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'm just talking about the cold air coming, not the storm. Gotcha. Yes the cold air is more impressive. 20s with full cloud cover Wednesday night is more impressive than the snow will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 I'm trying to remember that storm you talked about. The forecast was for that much snow but I think I chased that one up in the Boston Hills. I don't remember 12-18 inches, I think it was 6-7" max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 Here’s a good article https://wyrk.com/history-of-snow-in-april-in-buffalo/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 Late April snows are very rare in Buffalo. Almost all storms happen in first 2 weeks. If we get 4-6" it would probably be second highest late season snowfall aside from May 1989. https://www.weather.gov/buf/BuffaloSnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 NAM is correcting to other model guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 3k still pretty far west verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 It seems pretty typical for the NAM to be one of the farthest NW models. Seems like models are adjusting closer to the consistent Ukie. Which would be wonderful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 KBUF, even talks about lake effect weds night lol The expectation is for a window from late Tuesday night through the first half or so of Wednesday morning when ascent is maximized immediately on the cold side of the frontal zone resulting in a swath of higher intensity snowfall rates. Considering warm ground temperature, even high snowfall rates into a relatively cold late night/early morning boundary layer may struggle to produce 10:1 snow- liquid ratios. Though the current forecast suggests snowfall amounts in the 2-5 inch range with the higher amounts focused on higher terrain, as well as the Niagara Frontier including the Buffalo metro area, it is expected that there will be additional forecast adjustments to these amounts over the next several forecast cycles. Precipitation should taper down Wednesday afternoon. Cold air will pour into the eastern Great Lakes behind this system, with scattered snow showers developing. 850 mb temperatures as cold as -12c will develop lake effect snow showers southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Wednesday night with some additional accumulation likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Kbgm has mainly a rain event as of now.. KSYR Tuesday Night Showers likely, mainly after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Wednesday Showers. High near 44. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Wednesday Night Rain and snow showers likely, becoming all snow after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Rgem 10-1 and Kuchera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 1.25" for max QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 Icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: 3mb stronger and west...hmm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 GFS was stronger with more QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 1.82" max over Alleghany county, 19" Kuchera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 Going to be close for winter storm watches on this one. I think if 18z runs show similar totals you kind of have to go watches. The storm starts around midnight tomorrow night. We will be within 30 hours of start time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 I'm off Wednesday this week so I'll be chasing this if GFS is right with those totals SE of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 20" bomb on Kuchera 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 42 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Going to be close for winter storm watches on this one. I think if 18z runs show similar totals you kind of have to go watches. The storm starts around midnight tomorrow night. We will be within 30 hours of start time. 6” of true paste on these limbs could be bad. There are many more trees than I thought that have good foliage on them. No it’s not full but it’s definitely more weight than completely bare winter time limbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: 6” of true paste on these limbs could be bad. There are many more trees than I thought that have good foliage on them. No it’s not full but it’s definitely more weight than completely bare winter time limbs. Yeah quite a few in partial bloom here. Probably about 20-25% right now. The smaller trees are near 75% bloom. Going to mow the lawn after work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: 6” of true paste on these limbs could be bad. There are many more trees than I thought that have good foliage on them. No it’s not full but it’s definitely more weight than completely bare winter time limbs. For sure...especially since foliage out waaaaaay earlier than usual. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: 6” of true paste on these limbs could be bad. There are many more trees than I thought that have good foliage on them. No it’s not full but it’s definitely more weight than completely bare winter time limbs. Yea this is going to be impactful if those amounts shown on the models are to be correct surprised no watches are issued in advance for this storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Just now, ayuud11 said: Yea this is going to be impactful if those amounts shown on the models are to be correct surprised no watches are issued in advance for this storm. I'm not surprised...mostly because of how things have changed in the last 24 hours before events this year. Plus, it's the end of April, so they're probably being cautiously realistic. I imagine things will start being hoisted tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Ukmet a little east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 Seems like high res are furthest NW, Hrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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