Thinksnow18 Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs still showing flakes for Tues/wed.. Shoot that’s probably our 3rd best storm of the year if it actually happened... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 Ggem keeps most of the snow to our NW with a secondary potent SW delivering some snow like the GFS.. Little bit of a lake response as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 Ukmet Fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 haha this would be actual winter storm watch level for Southern Ontario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 European keeping everything west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 Vermont is putting up much bigger numbers than that first report from the NWS. This was the BASE of Killington as of 2pm. That's legit af! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 GeFS through it's entirety.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: GeFS through it's entirety.. I’ll take 9,10, or 13 please. If it’s gonna snow it might as well snow big. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 Still getting into some wrap around moisture.. Slowly adding up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: GeFS through it's entirety.. I've learned to ignore the ensembles. When the whole model is wrong, looking at various permutations of wrong doesn't mean much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 New update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 We haven't hit the timing on one of these all year and we have had many opportunities lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 Looks about right, similar to the european at this juncture.. I'm sure the timing will change some as we get closer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 Figures we are gonna end the season with another c tease storm. Just shoot it west and let’s get this over with. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 Who installed the LP magnet in WNY this season? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 Few members bring the front through quick enough but many are slower like the OP as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 17, 2021 Author Share Posted April 17, 2021 I'll never pass on a big dog, but pass on a dusting-3". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 Another anafrontal storm. Yeah...sure....sign me up...... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 All cold season storms this year.... East, east, east, east....oh, here comes one.... WEEEEEEST. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 NWS take, as of now.. Of concern in the upper levels next week is a closed low over the Hudson Bay, spanning its associated trough south across the mid- western states. This trough will allow an additional potent shortwave to pass through its base Tuesday night, which will help advance the trough east and pull the closed low south out of the Hudson Bay and into the Northern Great Lakes by Wednesday night. The closed low will continue to allow a few shortwaves to rotate through while it crosses overhead of the Great Lakes Thursday before heading northeast into the Canadian Maritimes. Upper level ridging will then ensue for the end of the work week. Thus, to start off the period on Tuesday, a shortwave passage through the aforementioned upper level trough to our west will have a well defined cold frontal boundary also placed to our west. While the next potent shortwave rounds the base of the upper level trough, this will not only slowly advance the cold front east Tuesday, but also induce a surface low to form over Missouri/Illinois. This low will then progress northeast overhead of NY state, and cross the state with the cold front late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Therefore, expect a dry start to the day on Tuesday with chances for some rain showers to increase late Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Ahead of the frontal passage Tuesday, some warm air advection will lie overhead, which will allow for some highs in the 50s and a few low 60s. These mild spring temperatures won`t last long due to the passages of the front. A much colder air mass will work its way across the region Wednesday, with nearly a 15 degree drop in temperature at 850mb. High temperatures Wednesday will likely occur early in the day before the frontal passage, with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. As the surface low departs northeast out of the area, only chances for a few snow showers will lie across the far eastern portions of the area Wednesday night. Yet another shortwave will pass through the now upper level closed low, which will interact with the leftover wrap around moisture Thursday to produce a few more early morning rain/snow showers before switching to all rain due to the addition of the sun for places across the Finger Lakes region and to its east. Cold air overhead will continue to support highs in the upper 40s and low 50s Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 17, 2021 Author Share Posted April 17, 2021 GFS came SE, that is a strengthening storm, cold temps too. If it hits at night it has a chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 Crazy temp contrast lol At 10-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 Canadian farther west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 Ukmet similar to 12z.. Comes down to timing as usual.. 100+ hours out, plenty of time for change lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 17, 2021 Author Share Posted April 17, 2021 4.8" to 100 lets get it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 European looks better for CNY for at least this run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 6 hours ago, wolfie09 said: European looks better for CNY for at least this run.. But doesn’t that indicate the main storm waaay west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 7 hours ago, wolfie09 said: European looks better for CNY for at least this run.. That's an obligatory snow graphic just to mock CNY right to the death of the season. :) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 2 hours ago, rochesterdave said: But doesn’t that indicate the main storm waaay west? Yeah Oz actually went just east of us, yesterday 12z went west of us so that's a start lol The snow comes from wrap around/enhancement verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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