sferic Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 HRRR at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 The models fooled us and the NWS again..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: The models fooled us and the NWS again..... So where will the NYS sweet spot be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 20 minutes ago, sferic said: So where will the NYS sweet spot be? Probably high terrain of the Adirondacks. Might even be a dud there too at this rate though, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 34 minutes ago, sferic said: So where will the NYS sweet spot be? Dacks, if not some random high terrain near Gilboa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Dacks, if not some random high terrain near Gilboa Are Delaware and Sullivan still good for 1-2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 31, 2021 Author Share Posted March 31, 2021 We really wanted this thing to merge with the trough instead of get shunted off to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 48 minutes ago, sferic said: Are Delaware and Sullivan still good for 1-2? Its possible but this isn't anything but a nuisance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 31, 2021 Author Share Posted March 31, 2021 Looks like we're getting another top 10 warmest month on record. I think we get one nearly every other month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 Expect a lull in the precipitation across Western New York late this afternoon into this evening, with rain showers only occurring mainly east of Rochester. In the upper levels, sharpening mid-level trough over western Great Lakes takes on negative tilt as it slides across lower Great Lakes on Thu. As this occurs, sfc low pressure wave over southeast US this afternoon will close off and deepen as it lifts along the Mid Atlantic coast late tonight, then further as it tracks along the New Enland coast on Thu. System is trending farther east, so have lowered QPF and resultant snow amounts, as now appears that secondary wave of precip that is just developing now and that lifts across the region late tonight will mainly impact Finger Lakes to eastern Lake Ontario. Even here though, amounts have trended down. As far as headlines, kept things status quo for now. Certainly marginal snow amounts expected later tonight Genesee valley with higher amounts east of there. If trends continue, then could see far western tier of current headlines being dropped, at least from the synoptic snow alone tonight. However, behind the system on Thu there will still be lake enhanced snow based on soundings which show moisture to H85-H7 and H85 temps dropping to -10C to -12C and Lake Ontario water temps 41F/+5C. There is also a hint of re-inforcing trough coming through during the day. Snow showers on Thu will likely be not as widespread in coverage, but will still have potential for result in reduced visibility at times. Whether if the snow misses tonight, the lake enhancement on Thu would be enough to keep the headline up for Genesee valley is debatable, but will let later shifts make that call since the synoptic surge of precip/snow is only just starting to form with the echoes seen in CONUS radar over southern IL and IN associated with sharp shortwave rounding the base of the larger scale trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Its possible but this isn't anything but a nuisance. Not complaining; my first full winter up here was pretty good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 Out of all the epic fails this winter, this one might take the cake. It’s actually an appropriate end to a frustrating season. Lots of lessons learned. As BUF weather stated, you simply cannot trust a storm until it’s within 24 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 31, 2021 Author Share Posted March 31, 2021 Welcome to the worst month of the year around here. Hopefully we can get some 60s and sun for the majority of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks like we're getting another top 10 warmest month on record. I think we get one nearly every other month. Not from upstate NY, but we have the same old story in Pittsburgh these days. But people fail to recognize that there’s a problem, as evidenced by the fact that if we get an unseasonably cold day, even if it comes after 17 days in a row of above normal temperatures, the self-professed comedians are all over the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page cracking stale and unfunny (and misinformed) “jokes” about global warming. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 Buf just cancelled all headlines outside of Lewis County, and dropped Lewis to a WWA. The modeling really does suck these days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 21 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Buf just cancelled all headlines outside of Lewis County, and dropped Lewis to a WWA. The modeling really does suck these days. Don’t know if I’ve ever seen a winter storm watch upgraded to a warning then just fully dropped with 12 hours. ohhh do we have another looker in the works? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 14 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Don’t know if I’ve ever seen a winter storm watch upgraded to a warning then just fully dropped with 12 hours. ohhh do we have another looker in the works? this looks so wrong for so many reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 Oswego county went from a WSW to nothing, RLMAO, and KSYR are still under WWA. Live by the models, die by to hw models!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 HRRR showing lake effect/enhanced band near ROC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 Blizzard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 Probably near .25/hr rate at the moment. This band is motoring so probably an inch maybe 2 tops if we can get into some of the yellow stuff for a bit. Temp is 34 and falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 That one incoming band means business although it will be short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 0.2 inch on my deck, next to nothing on the grass. The ultimate April Fools joke on us. I hope this is it for snow this season. Today is opening day for all MLB teams! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 Ended up with 2 inches on the grass. Pavement is just wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 Heavy coating in Amsterdam, drove down to Albany for work, mangled flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 1"-1.5" in Delhi in the valley, nothing on the roads. Judging by my camera, about 3" at home in the hills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 Not even wet outside. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 Just a coating on the deck this morning, starting to get a little wrap around moisture, mixing with some graupel.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 It’s funny. Folks in Rochester are a little bemused by the lack of snow. Some are even a tad pissed at the forecast. We all knew this was belly up a long time ago. The public takes a long time to absorb that snow is no longer expected but very little time to react to a WSW. The NWS should of never hoisted that watch for Monroe county. I think the trends are what need to be watched. The trend was not good for the last 72-84 hours. By 48 hours ago- the writing was on the wall and still, NWS slow walked it back to preserve ‘continuity’. IDK. I’m a big fan and think they’re the best forecast in town, but they blew this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankees102110 Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 Not even a dusting here in Mayfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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