vortmax Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Enjoy the sunny and 70 day today boys...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 30, 2021 Author Share Posted March 30, 2021 Long range still looks warm for April. When was our last above normal April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Long range still looks warm for April. When was our last above normal April? 1849ish? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Nam a little east and drier.. Nice looking track though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Long range still looks warm for April. When was our last above normal April? My place, last one was April 2017. Way above the norm that year. Not sure if thats a good representation of other parts of the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Rochester almost out of the game. Will we get that last minute westward push? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Rochester almost out of the game. Will we get that last minute westward push? IF it follows the winter trend then yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 1 hour ago, vortmax said: Enjoy the sunny and 70 day today boys...lol It will be back in a few days. Daffodils in full bloom, forsythia blooming, and trees budding down here at my parents' house in the Upper Susquehanna valley area of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Here comes that late game shift lol Not much but makes a difference.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 GFS and CMC FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Really tight consensus. NAM 3k is alone. Looks like the finger lakes through the Tug might get a watch. Still a ways to go. BTW, NWS has been struggling with system gremlins. The 7 day wasn’t pulling up for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Just now, rochesterdave said: Really tight consensus. NAM 3k is alone. Looks like the finger lakes through the Tug might get a watch. Still a ways to go. BTW, NWS has been struggling with system gremlins. The 7 day wasn’t pulling up for me. That is actually a pretty sizable nationwide outage. The SPC had to post the day 2 severe outlooks in the form of a picture taken of one of the meterologist's phones. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Latest run of the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Really tight consensus. NAM 3k is alone. Looks like the finger lakes through the Tug might get a watch. Still a ways to go. BTW, NWS has been struggling with system gremlins. The 7 day wasn’t pulling up for me. I kind of hope this busts. I'd hate to think that one of the very few snowstorms to affect the Syr area, and actually delivers the goods, occurs while i'm away. I may lower my grade for this season from D to D- if that happens. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 New map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Euro and Ukmet maybe a little east but relatively steady.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Man I’d love to see this storm crush us. It would be the biggest April storm that I can remember if we get more than 4-5 inches. As always with this winter, We are right on the cusp and im mentally preparing to be majorly disappointed. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: Man I’d love to see this storm crush us. It would be the biggest April storm that I can remember if we get more than 4-5 inches. As always with this winter, We are right on the cusp and im mentally preparing to be majorly disappointed. Ugh. Everytime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 WSW hoisted for CNY...how long till it becomes a WWA? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Watches issued 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: Watches issued Really surprised they included Monroe. Cool! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Late season snow for parts of the region Wed night into Thu... Upper trough from western Great Lakes to central Mississipi river Valley approaches late Wed. Associated front now looks quicker to cross. Result is when next surge of widespread precip returns to the region from the southwest Wed evening on nose of upper level jet and in deformation zone to west of developing coastal low, it will be cold enough for snow from the start. Models still have differences with intensity of the widespread surge of mainly snow Wed night. Given the strength of approaching negative tiltled trough and deepening sfc-H85 low along New England coast, like the higher QPF of Canadian, though could not go completely to that solution as it did differ by 0.10-0.20 compared to NAM and recent available runs of the GFS and ECMWF. Net result was an increase in snow from Southern Tier to especially the western and northern Finger Lakes on Wed night. Still appears that far western NY will be on the far western fringe of this system. Headlines will likely eventually be in place across much of our forecast area except maybe far western NY, but main issue is where to place a winter storm watch for the potential for heaviest snow. Greatest certainty for that currently is east of Lake Ontario closer to track of coastal low and with added boost from upslope and lake enhanced snow on Thu. Seeming likely that higher terrain areas by late Thu night will see over 10 inches with lower terrain areas seeing at least 7 inches, if not more. Also will include Allegany, Livingston, Monroe, Ontario, Wayne and northern Cayuga counties given synoptic snow on Wed night followed by lake enhanced snow on Thu into Thu evening given a favorable sharp cyclonic cold and moist flow to the west of departing low and within the upper level trough axis and as H85 temps drop to -10 to -12c in the afternoon. Though daytime disruptive effects with higher sun angle could limit widespread snow coverage, expect pockets of those area to see moderate to heavy snow at times on Thu. Lake enhanced snow and upslope forced snow gradually diminishes through Thu night into Fri, but did increase pops for higher terrain of Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario all the way through Fri as sufficient low-level moisture and more than sufficiently cold temps persist as upper low only slowly pulls away from the region while upstream ridge is still barely entering the western Great Lakes. Overall once the snow starts off, it will not end until later Friday or Friday evening, so a late season and long duration event it appears. Otherwise, other than snow, will be chilly and blustery early Spring period with highs on Thu in the upper 20s to lower 30s, nearly 20F below normal, with highs on Fri still in the 30s for most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Binghamton map . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Good luck up there everyone, hoping for at least 10 flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Pretty apparent eastward shift on 18z. Probably a little less of amplification too. This one is sailing for Rochester. Still looks good for points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Yup lol Nam pushes west, gfs goes east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Either way it would seem WWAs would be needed for the rest of BGM/BUF WFOs probably by midday tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 30, 2021 Author Share Posted March 30, 2021 Hit 73 here today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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