wolfie09 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Well it's starting to look a little better for CNY... Forecast is for a few inches which is the right call given the time of year and all lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Considering time of year and leaves coming out on some trees a winter storm warning should be out for entire forecast area for 4 to 8 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Hrrr actually shows some really impressive lake snows after storm. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 On 4/20/2021 at 2:46 PM, tim123 said: Considering time of year and leaves coming out on some trees a winter storm warning should be out for entire forecast area for 4 to 8 inches. Expand Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 On 4/20/2021 at 2:46 PM, tim123 said: Considering time of year and leaves coming out on some trees a winter storm warning should be out for entire forecast area for 4 to 8 inches. Expand There’s a solid possibility this ends up being 1-2” of slush in the grass. I’m still thinking that’s the likeliest scenario. Warnings aren’t justified. The trees are just beginning to bud. IDK. We shall see 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 There is alot of smaller trees with fairly significant leave out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 On 4/20/2021 at 3:07 PM, rochesterdave said: There’s a solid possibility this ends up being 1-2” of slush in the grass. I’m still thinking that’s the likeliest scenario. Warnings aren’t justified. The trees are just beginning to bud. IDK. We shall see Expand 1-2” OTG no matter, 4 or 5” on the trees and limbs...problem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 Kansas city over performed with 2.7" and they added to it since 7 am. Their largest snowstorm of the year and largest late season storm on record. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 I predict they will expand WWA's further east. Not sure they have the gall to upgrade to warnings based on their last burn. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 On 4/20/2021 at 3:09 PM, tim123 said: There is alot of smaller trees with fairly significant leave out. Expand Yes and some of the larger sugar maples in the neighborhood are also leafing out. They’re small but definitive. It will only exacerbate the issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 Boston Hills are getting 6-10" out of this. They will be well below freezing. With 1-2" rates, a warm ground means nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 Some nice banding on RGEM Temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 The newest runs of the WRF models all show 6-8" at 1:10. I don't think we will see 1:10, more like 1:8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 I think we should create a separate thread for this event, pretty memorable one for so late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Rgem has 5 to 7 at 8 to one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 On 4/20/2021 at 3:07 PM, rochesterdave said: There’s a solid possibility this ends up being 1-2” of slush in the grass. I’m still thinking that’s the likeliest scenario. Warnings aren’t justified. The trees are just beginning to bud. IDK. We shall see Expand Not here in Sizzlercuse. Many of the trees have small leaves on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Agreed. The RGEM actually has the LP strengthening from 1006 to 998 as it goes by... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 12z RGEM through 57hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/54815-upstateeastern-new-york/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 On 4/20/2021 at 3:19 PM, vortmax said: Agreed. The RGEM actually has the LP strengthening from 1006 to 998 as it goes by... Expand Which is big. You need these to be strengthening. All winter they’ve fizzled or strengthened and gone west. I don’t trust it one bit. Same storm over and over but this one might just do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 3k NAM or bust. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 For you guys itching for a little warmth.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/04/21/weather/climate-change-new-us-normals-noaa/index.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 22, 2021 Author Share Posted April 22, 2021 On 4/20/2021 at 8:47 PM, wolfie09 said: For you guys itching for a little warmth.. Expand I'm so ready for summer. This morning walking outside to the cold air sucked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 22, 2021 Author Share Posted April 22, 2021 warm up coming! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Wednesday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 40%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 Gfs 12z for Wed, Thursday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 On 4/23/2021 at 5:34 PM, wolfie09 said: Gfs 12z for Wed, Thursday.. Expand Thank god it's short lived warmth before cool weather returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 Roller coaster month which will obviously continue lol Nice day today, 54° and sunny, bit breezy at times.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 It will generally be a warm pattern, but it now appears possible that a wave of low pressure passing to the north will nudge the frontal boundary southward on Wednesday which may lead to cooler temperatures depending on how far south the front makes it. For now forecast leans toward continuity which is supported by the GFS, but the 12Z ECMWF/GGEM suggest highs on Wednesday could be much colder (60s rather than upper 70s to lower 80s). The front is likely to nudge back northward Wednesday night and Thursday, although it will still be close. Then good model agreement that a cold front will move through late Thursday or Friday. This front will usher in cooler (but still near normal) weather for Friday. Otherwise, there will be a persistent chance of showers during the period due to the frontal boundaries. A few thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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