Upstate/Eastern New York

[MJO812]

Enjoy

[BuffaloWeather]

WRF models

[wolfie09]

[wolfie09]

[wolfie09]

Morning discussion..WPC

On Tuesday night, a band of 850-700 mb frontogenesis will help promote enhanced ascent and dynamically cool the column and lead to snowfall rates that result in snow accumulations over northern Indiana and the northwest Ohio, possibly into adjacent lower Michigan. The strengthening area of low pressure and associated precipitation is then forecast to move northeast and into the Interior New York and northern New England by D3/Wednesday. Snow will remain possible along the axis of strongest frontogenesis and to the northwest of the low pressure system, but there remains moderate uncertainty regarding the precip type and resultant snow in western to northern New York and northern VT. The 00z GFS remains the most progressive solution and thus the farthest east with the heavy snow axis in NH/western ME, while the 00z ECMWF, NAM, and other guidance continues to be highlighting snow further west in the NY Adirondacks and further west in western NY State. WPC probabilities have low chances for greater than 4 inches of snow from western to northern New York State on Wed.

[BuffaloWeather]

Some of the higher res have some nice banding as the storm strengthens

[Syrmax]

48 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I'm not surprised...mostly because of how things have changed in the last 24 hours before events this year. Plus, it's the end of April, so they're probably being cautiously realistic. I  imagine things will start being hoisted tonight.

I'm thinking 2-3" of slush for us lowlanders. The hills should see a real snow event, 6" or so.  The LES afterwards could be of more impact, if it materializes.  

[TugHillMatt]

16 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

I'm thinking 2-3" of slush for us lowlanders. The hills should see a real snow event, 6" or so.  The LES afterwards could be of more impact, if it materializes.  

Good call. Could maximum amounts on a cold car top that was in the shade all week. 

[Syrmax]

Just now, TugHillMatt said:

Good call. Could maximum amounts on a cold car top that was in the shade all week. 

I need 3.6" to reach 80" and about a foot to get to last season's paltry totals.  If this thing gets us to 80" I'd consider going from D- to D for the winter.  I had to drop a half grade based on the April Fools Fake storm but I'm open to late remedial assignments...

[TugHillMatt]

Just now, Syrmax said:

I need 3.6" to reach 80" and about a foot to get to last season's paltry totals.  If this thing gets us to 80" I'd consider going from D- to D for the winter.  I had to drop a half grade based on the April Fools Fake storm but I'm open to late remedial assignments...

If it happens, make sure you measure using the Rochester method so you can reach 80.

Also, this crap winter is over. The snow should affect your grade for this Spring...not winter. Which means your grade for Spring will go down, down, doooooown....

[BuffaloWeather]

Euro slightly SE of last run

[BuffaloWeather]

Euro is not as strong with the low, less QPF. Highest is .95"

[Syrmax]

11 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

If it happens, make sure you measure using the Rochester method so you can reach 80.

Also, this crap winter is over. The snow should affect your grade for this Spring...not winter. Which means your grade for Spring will go down, down, doooooown....

I lump it all together since mid Dec to mid Jan is like Spring Break here lately!

My CNY Spring grade assumes an F! Nowhere to go but F-?

[BuffaloWeather]

Perfect spring day out, right around 60 and sunny with little wind. 

[lakeeffectkid383]

13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Euro is not as strong with the low, less QPF. Highest is .95"

3-6” max for lower elevations. 6-10” for highest elevations. Advisory for everywhere but S Erie (higher elevations not you or I), Catt, Allegany and Wyoming Counties. I’m expecting 2-3” at most at my location on elevated surfaces. Maybe an inch on the driveway come Wednesday morning. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, lakeeffectkid383 said:

3-6” max for lower elevations. 6-10” for highest elevations. Advisory for everywhere but S Erie (higher elevations not you or I), Catt, Allegany and Wyoming Counties. I’m expecting 2-3” at most at my location on elevated surfaces. Maybe an inch on the driveway come Wednesday morning. 

I'd go with a similar call, want to see tonights runs first. 

[wolfie09]

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Low pressure will pass south of the region late Tuesday night and
Wednesday, spreading widespread accumulating snow across our region.
There still remains some uncertainty with the exact track of this
system and location of heaviest snowfall.

The snowfall will likely be heavy enough to impact travel later
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with the worst travel conditions likely
occuring during the Wednesday morning commute. This will be a heavy,
wet snow, and may result in isolated power outages and downed tree
limbs.

[rochesterdave]

Everything falling into place here. The models actually showing a little bit more of an energized low. It’ll be important for it to be gaining strength as opposed to limping along (as yesterday’s models showed). I’m still very reluctant as it’s another anafrontal system and we’ve seen what these do in the last 24 hours. 
Could be interesting. I’m with Wolfie, if it pans out and drops 6”- I’ll consider raising my grade from a D-

[Thinksnow18]

I’m shocked they didn’t stop a WSW on us

[wolfie09]

Syracuse, N.Y. -- Another round of spring snow looks likely this week in Upstate New York, and it could be enough to plow and shovel in Western New York.

The National Weather Service office in Buffalo has issued a hazardous weather outlook for Western New York and all the counties along Lake Ontario. The weather service predicts that much of Western New York, including Buffalo and Niagara Falls, could get 2 to 5 inches of snow Tuesday and Wednesday from a low pressure system.

“There remains a great deal of uncertainty with respect to the track of this low, and where the heaviest snow will fall, but it is possible that a late-season, impactful snowfall may occur,” the weather service said.

Tug Hill and the Adirondacks could get several inches, too. The hills south of Syracuse are likely to get an inch or two, while lower-lying Syracuse will likely get no more than an inch or two.

It all starts Tuesday as a storm system brings rain. As temperatures drop overnight, the rain could turn to slushy snow, especially at higher elevations, which tend to be several degrees colder than valleys.

“Warm, wet ground will likely limit any slushy light accumulations to grassy areas/elevated surfaces,” the weather service’s Binghamton office said.

Snow and rain taper off Wednesday, but a cold front then barrels in during the day, dropping temperatures to freezing overnight amid strong west winds. Those winds could generate some light lake effect snow through late Thursday morning.

https://www.syracuse.com/weather/2021/04/more-april-snow-possible-for-upstate-ny.html?outputType=amp

[BuffaloWeather]

13 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I’m shocked they didn’t stop a WSW on us

Still alot of uncertainty. If they do it will be later tonight after 18z runs. 

[wolfie09]

A late season accumulating snowfall event continues to appear more
and more likely later Tuesday night through Wednesday across most of
the region. A mid level trough will dig and sharpen into the upper
Midwest late Tuesday, then reach the central Great Lakes Wednesday.
DPVA and flow adjustments downstream of the digging trough will
force a strong baroclinic wave to develop along a stalled frontal
zone over the Ohio Valley, with the resulting surface low tracking
from the Ohio Valley Tuesday night to southern New England by
Wednesday afternoon. A shield of widespread precipitation will be
forced by strong frontogenesis and differential temperature
advection to the north of the low track, with an added boost of
strong DPVA ahead of the digging trough. Model guidance continues to
converge on a common solution, but there are still enough
differences in low track and frontal position to yield some
uncertainty with the forecast. The NAM remains on the northern edge
of the guidance envelope, with the GFS/ECMWF farther south.

Tuesday evening will start dry, then light precipitation will
develop from southwest to northeast from late evening through the
early overnight. Colder air will still be in the process of
filtering into the region on low level northerly flow, so this
initial light precipitation may be a rain/snow mix. Late Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning frontogenesis will intensify as the
baroclinic wave reaches our longitude, resulting in a period of
moderate or even marginally heavy precipitation. The combination of
ongoing cold advection, cooling from melting processes, and wet
bulbing of the column will cool the atmosphere sufficiently to
change all the precipitation to snow. Forecast soundings continue to
suggest there may be a narrow zone of freezing rain/sleet near the
rain/snow transition line, but if the farther south model solutions
verify this may end up just south of the NY/PA border.

The ground is warm in the second half of April, so that will
initially inhibit snow accumulation. Snowfall rate is the key to
accumulation at this time of year, if it snows hard enough the snow
can overcome the warm surface and cover the ground. Once the ground
is covered, the warm ground becomes irrelevant with an insulating
layer of snow between the ground and new snow accumulation on top.
Given the strong forcing in this case, we expect the warm ground to
be overcome for a window from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning when snowfall rates are greatest.

Initial first guess accumulations are 2-5" for lower elevations and
4-6" for higher terrain. These numbers may change with future
changes in model guidance. The expected accumulation is below
watch/warning criteria, but nonetheless this may have a notable
impact to travel, especially around the Wednesday morning commute.
The heavy/wet nature of the snow may also result in a few isolated
power outages and a few downed tree limbs.

The widespread snow will taper off quickly from west to east
Wednesday afternoon, to be replaced by a few snow showers as cold
air pours into the eastern Great Lakes in the afternoon. Lake effect
and upslope snow showers will become more widespread Wednesday night
through Thursday morning as the pool of coldest air aloft crosses
the region. Northwest flow will direct most of this into the western
Southern Tier off Lake Erie, and from Orleans County eastward across
Rochester to Oswego County and down into the Finger Lakes off Lake
Ontario. Upslope flow will also keep more widespread snow showers
going across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. All of this
may produce localized additional accumulations of 1-3" Wednesday
night through Thursday morning in the most persistent bands. The
snow showers will become more scattered in nature and focused over
the land by Thursday afternoon before finally ending later Thursday
night as high pressure starts to build towards the eastern Great
Lakes.

[wolfie09]

Gfs vs NAM Wed morning..

 

[Thinksnow18]

5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Gfs vs NAM Wed morning..

 

Nam would be a crush job for the Niagara Frontier, but alas, it’s the NAM so carry on...

[wolfie09]

Yeah pretty much worse case scenario for CNY.. But it wouldn't take much to bring those heavier snows south lol

Nam is about 4-5 mb stronger Wed morning compared to most guidance..

[tim123]

Nam almost always plays catch up to globals. This looks like globals did 2 days ago

[wolfie09]

18z 3k and rgem at 10-1..

[rochesterdave]

Snow looks to fall during the worst diurnal period. Mid day on Wednesday. Climatologically, it is going to be a bear to overcome all the things opposing accumulations. 
If I were creating a forecast map I’d be leaning very conservative. I’m talking an inch or less in Buf and Roc. Hope I’m wrong. But heck, getting an inch during daylight hours, at this time of year, is pretty remarkable. 
Bristol/ Boston/ Wyoming hills might do much better. 

[wolfie09]

Gfs 1 mb stronger, little north..

[wolfie09]

Fwiw best run yet verbatim..