TugHillMatt Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 45 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: You’re complaining about nice weather this time of year? I went for a couple walks today and enjoyed the fresh air. I am still boggled by Syracuse's ability to outwarm and overwarm compared to the rest of New York state. As a cold weenie, I don't want my community to be the warmest day in and day out. Hence, looking for a mountain top. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Ehhh. LP is not as strong as it was forecast a couple cycles ago. I smell another lemon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 0z Rgem and NAM fwiw.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Icon a bit east at 0Z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 Temps during highest rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 It gets really cold weds night even some LES 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 GFS goes a little further SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 This was 12Z so a little east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 NAM is farther NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: RGEM Looks like a decent consensus for now. Don’t see this as a waning event with warm antecedent ground temps this seems more like an advisory for 3-6” max. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: NAM is farther NW This is beginning to look like a flush hit Tuesday night Wednesday morning. Couldn’t be worse timing as there will be no help from diurnal effects. Concerned that many trees have begun to bud and that much extra weight could cause widespread power outages. If we reach 6 “ that could be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Just now, lakeeffectkid383 said: Looks like a decent consensus for now. Don’t see this as a waning event with warm antecedent ground temps this seems more like an advisory for 3-6” max. It’s a warning event because it’s out of season. This isn’t so much about what’s on the ground as much as it will cause to all the flowering trees ( cherry mainly) that could get wiped out of their crop this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Looks like a decent consensus for now. Don’t see this as a waning event with warm antecedent ground temps this seems more like an advisory for 3-6” max. I thought it was long gone? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: This is beginning to look like a flush hit Tuesday night Wednesday morning. Couldn’t be worse timing as there will be no help from diurnal effects. Concerned that many trees have begun to bud and that much extra weight could cause widespread power outages. If we reach 6 “ that could be the case. Yeah, temps are actually plenty cold enough to stick with 28 degrees during heaviest rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I thought it was long gone? Wish it was. This isn’t a huge event. More of a nuisance than anything. Trees have only begun budding, not even close to full leaf out. Would take 6”+ of 5:1 paste to bring em down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah, temps are actually plenty cold enough to stick with 28 degrees during heaviest rates. Isn’t going to stick to ground much. Elevated surfaces for the most part. That ground is warm from weeks of 60-80 degrees. Could see a slushy inch or two on the road before the sun comes up but once the sun is up it should melt pretty quickly. NWS this morning “A late season SNOWFALL looks likely Tuesday night and Wednesday. Though a bit early to pinpoint amounts this graphic shows the chances of seeing 2" or more of snow. Snow will stick to mainly grassy and elevated surfaces, but a slushy accumulation is likely on some roads. ” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Decent spread between expected and High end.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Channel 4 forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Kbgm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 26 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Isn’t going to stick to ground much. Elevated surfaces for the most part. That ground is warm from weeks of 60-80 degrees. Could see a slushy inch or two on the road before the sun comes up but once the sun is up it should melt pretty quickly. NWS this morning “A late season SNOWFALL looks likely Tuesday night and Wednesday. Though a bit early to pinpoint amounts this graphic shows the chances of seeing 2" or more of snow. Snow will stick to mainly grassy and elevated surfaces, but a slushy accumulation is likely on some roads. ” A late April snowstorm is pretty rare, its the only reason im interested in it. Average temps are in the high 50s right now. This storm is extremely rare. Temps in the upper 20s for the main part of the storm. It's like a once in 25-30 year interval airmass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 6z gfs still liking more of an eastern solution.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 With the rates forecasted and temps in high 20s the snow will have no problem accumulating very early weds morning. As we get into the afternoon it definitely will be an issue. Either way its likely gone within a day. Going to be a fun 12 hours though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: A late April snowstorm is pretty rare, its the only reason im interested in it. Average temps are in the high 50s right now. This storm is extremely rare. Temps in the upper 20s for the main part of the storm. It's like a once in 25-30 year interval airmass. The main part of the storm is overnight into Wednesday morning. Average low is 38 so it’s not like it’s going to be crazy cold. Talking a 8-10 degree departure. Will probably be up to 40 by Wednesday afternoon and most of the snow will be gone by Noon Thursday. Is it impressive ? Sure. Extremely rare, I don’t think so, IMO. I believe it was April 2011 there was a storm that dropped a few inches over the lower elevations but some of the higher elevations in the Southern Tier got 12-18”+. Now to me that’s a once in a generation storm. There’s nothing being modeled right now that shows this being anymore than a once in an every few year event. Hell parts of SNE just got a foot of snow 3 days ago and they’re close to the Atlantic Ocean with with average temps 5-7 degrees higher than that of here. They also had a 3-6” event in mid April last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 17 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: The main part of the storm is overnight into Wednesday morning. Average low is 38 so it’s not like it’s going to be crazy cold. Talking a 8-10 degree departure. Will probably be up to 40 by Wednesday afternoon and most of the snow will be gone by Noon Thursday. Is it impressive ? Sure. Extremely rare, I don’t think so, IMO. I believe it was April 2011 there was a storm that dropped a few inches over the lower elevations but some of the higher elevations in the Southern Tier got 12-18”+. Now to me that’s a once in a generation storm. There’s nothing being modeled right now that shows this being anymore than a once in an every few year event. Hell parts of SNE just got a foot of snow 3 days ago and they’re close to the Atlantic Ocean with with average temps 5-7 degrees higher than that of here. They also had a 3-6” event in mid April last year. It's pretty rare, From Indiana NWS. SPC UPPER AIR SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, CIPS ANALOGS AND GEFS M-CLIMATE RETURN INTERVAL ALL SUPPORT AN EVENT THAT MAY POSSIBLY BE CLASSIFIED AS A 50 YEAR OR 100 YEAR EVENT. A VERY STRONG ANOMALOUS SIGNAL WILL SET UP TUESDAY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It's pretty rare, From Indiana NWS. SPC UPPER AIR SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, CIPS ANALOGS AND GEFS M-CLIMATE RETURN INTERVAL ALL SUPPORT AN EVENT THAT MAY POSSIBLY BE CLASSIFIED AS A 50 YEAR OR 100 YEAR EVENT. A VERY STRONG ANOMALOUS SIGNAL WILL SET UP TUESDAY. We’ll have to see how it all shakes out. Just my personal unprofessional opinion that this is going to be nothing more than a nuisance event for this area. Not sure how it can be a one in a 50-100 year storm when I can remember more impressive events in the last 10 years than this but maybe it is for that part of the country. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 Just now, lakeeffectkid383 said: We’ll have to see how it all shakes out. Just my personal unprofessional opinion that this is going to be nothing more than a nuisance event. Not sure how it can be a one in a 50-100 year storm when I can remember more impressive events in the last 10 years than this but maybe it is for that part of the country. I'm just talking about the cold air coming, not the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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