jaxjagman Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Should be worth a thread Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected Wednesday into Wednesday night across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into Alabama. Widespread severe storms capable of producing tornadoes (several of which may be intense), very large hail and intense damaging wind gusts are expected. More than one round of severe storms are possible across parts of Mississippi into Alabama during the afternoon into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A compact and intense upper low over the southern Plains will eject eastward to the Ozark Plateau/lower MS Valley on Wednesday. A surface low centered over northeast OK will develop east/northeast in tandem with the upper system. At the beginning of the period, a cold front will extend southward from the low across eastern OK into eastern TX before arcing southwest into south TX. A warm front draped northwest to southeast from near the MO/AR border into northern AL will gradually lift northward through the period. There is some uncertainty in how far north this boundary will lift across northern GA/eastern TN given strong cold air damming across the Carolinas until very late in the period. The cold front should push eastward to Middle TN/central AL and the western FL Panhandle. Across the broad warm sector, dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s are expected beneath steepening lapse rates and intense vertical shear, resulting in an environment capable of supporting a widespread severe weather outbreak. ...Southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley... Convection will be ongoing Wednesday morning near the surface low, southward along the cold front, and eastward along the northward retreating warm front from central AR into northern MS/AL. Any convection north of the warm front will be elevated and pose a threat mainly for large hail. However, shear profiles will improve through the morning and surface-based storms near the triple point and along the warm front are possible and will increase the risk for damaging gusts and a few tornadoes. Further south along the cold front across eastern OK into eastern TX, convection will move into an increasing unstable and moist environment. A line of supercells and line segments is expected to develop as convection moves into AR and approaches the Sabine Valley. All severe hazards are expected with this activity from Wednesday morning into the afternoon. ...Lower MS Valley into AL/GA... Multiple rounds of intense, severe convection will be possible, mainly across MS/AL on Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours. Convection will intensify along the eastward progressing cold front across central and eastern AR/LA during the late morning/afternoon as it encounters effective shear greater than 60 kt, MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg and midlevel lapse rates around 7-8 C/km. Fast storm motion, with 925-700 mb flow greater than 40 kt will support widespread damaging gusts with some gusts greater than 65 kt expected. Large hail (some greater than 2 inch in diameter, especially from the AR/MO border into northern LA, southwest TN and northern/central MS) is also expected with this activity. Further east across northeast LA into MS and AL a more concerning scenario appears possible. Most forecast guidance agrees that a round of afternoon thunderstorms are expected. This activity is expected to develop in weaker ascent, driven by heating and low level warm advection. Strong 0-3 km shear near 30-40 kt will already be in place with enlarged low level hodographs evident. Given weaker forcing, this activity will have an opportunity to remain more discrete and any cell will quickly become a supercell capable of producing strong tornadoes. As a 40-50 kt low level jet increases around 00-03z, intense supercells are expected to advance eastward along with the cold front across MS and into AL overnight. This will bring a second round of significant severe storms capable of intense tornadoes, large hail and intense damaging winds across much of MS/AL. If these trends are maintained, an upgrade to a High risk could be necessary with the initial Day 1 Convective Outlook at 06z tonight. ..Leitman.. 03/16/2021 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 16, 2021 Author Share Posted March 16, 2021 Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM GEORGIA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS... CORRECTED TO INCLUDE SIG AREA IN PROB GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from southern Virginia southward into Florida, and westward into portions of eastern Kentucky/eastern Tennessee Thursday. Along with potential for hail and locally damaging winds, several tornadoes -- a couple of them possibly strong -- are anticipated. ...Synopsis... A vigorous upper low initially progged over eastern portions of the Ozarks, is expected to continue steady eastward progression through the period, weakening gradually as it crosses the Appalachians and reaches Virginia/the Carolinas by the end of the period. In the wake of this feature, ridging will expand to encompass much of the country, as an eastern Pacific trough nears the Pacific Northwest Coast late. As the upper system advances, a surface low just ahead of cyclone aloft will likewise progress eastward, crossing the mountains during the evening before redeveloping offshore through the end of the period. A trailing cold front will cross the southern Appalachians through the first half of the period, before moving offshore overnight. A second day of fairly widespread -- and possibly locally substantial -- severe risk is anticipated. ...Parts of the Mid and Southern Atlantic Coast states, and westward into eastern parts of KY/TN... Showers and thunderstorms -- and some attendant severe weather risk -- will be ongoing Thursday morning, particularly over the southern Appalachians region. With associated clouds streaming northeastward across the middle and southern Atlantic Coast states, hindered heating -- and thus tempered diurnal destabilization -- is expected. Still, with northward advection of higher theta-e air east of the mountains ahead of the advancing surface system causing a rapid retreat of the remnant damming front, sufficient CAPE should evolve to support vigorous storms -- with intensity of the updrafts aided by strongly veering/increasing flow with height. Storms should increase through midday west of the mountains across parts of eastern Kentucky/eastern Tennessee ahead of the synoptic system. Relatively low-topped storms -- and local risk for all-hazards severe weather -- will likely evolve. Meanwhile, storms are expected to spread across Georgia and into the Carolinas ahead of the advancing cold front, along with some pre-frontal cellular development within a zone of strong warm advection east of the mountains. Given ample instability and a very favorably sheared environment, relatively widespread and locally substantial severe weather potential is indicated -- including risk for a few strong tornadoes. Potential is expected to expand northward toward/into southern Virginia with time as the front retreats into the evening, before convection begins to end from west to east as the cold front moves toward -- and eventually off -- the Atlantic Coast. ..Goss.. 03/16/2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 16, 2021 Author Share Posted March 16, 2021 National Weather Service Nashville TN 218 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 ...Severe Weather is Likely in Middle TN on Wednesday... .DISCUSSION... Clouds have really hung tough across the southeastern half today. This has kept temperatures down for this area, but the sun is out in all its glory everywhere else across the mid-state and temperatures are responding with low to mid 70s at forecast time. I guess you could call today `the calm before the storm` because tomorrow and tomorrow night are going to be a different story. If you`ve been hiding under a rock (which is uncomfortable, by the way) for the last few days, we`ve been touting the idea that severe weather is on the way tomorrow and nothing has really changed that thought process. An upper level system taking shape over the southwestern U.S. right now will continue to intensify and push this direction overnight. As it does, a warm front will pull northward through our region providing ample moisture for storms to feed on. ** This is where part of the narrative has changed ** We`ve been questioning whether the warm front would pull far enough north to provide severe weather to most of Middle TN and it looks like this is going to happen. What this means is we`ll be dealing with three seperate time frames of concern: First, showers and thunderstorms will pull through the mid-state during the morning hours tomorrow. A few of these morning storms are going to be worth watching. There will be plenty of shear and just south of whereever the warm front is could see some decent storms. Second, this warm front will pull north into KY, leaving Middle TN in a moist, warm sector during the afternoon. Latest CAM guidance is suggesting it will be quiet and the environment will have an opportunity to warm and destabilize further for the evening activity. Let`s not get ahead of ourselves here. The afternoon is going to carry with it the potential for discrete supercell development. The bulk of this *should* remain southwest of Middle TN. However, there is the potential we could see some development or storms could develop to our southwest and move into our southwest counties (south of I-40 and west of I-65) during the afternoon. While confidence of this occurring is low, it does need to be monitored closely. Obviously, if this occurs, tornadoes, straight line winds and hail would be the main threat with any of these storms. Third, and this is the main show, storms along the cold front in the evening hours. Even if the afternoon stuff doesn`t occur, this is our best bet for severe weather for much of Middle TN -- and all modes: tornadoes, straight line winds, hail (less of a chance) and flash flooding. Main time frame is 7 pm until 2 am. Yes, 2 am. Latest guidance has slowed the approach of these storms, which could help things start later and linger later into the night for our eastern counties. Here`s the main takeaway from all of this: the bulk of this activity is at night, which means yet another nocturnal event in Middle TN. Please have multiple ways to get warnings (in case one way fails), have a plan in place to shelter in a hurry, if you go under a warning and third, you may even consider waiting until the storms pass you before going to bed Wednesday night. This might be more difficult east of I-65 as it`ll likely be later in the night before storms reach you, but it could be beneficial if pinched for time when you need to take shelter. The cold front associated with the overnight storms should have things off the Plateau before daybreak Thursday, however the rain is likely not to be over. The upper trough with this system could very well traverse Middle TN during the day on Thursday and provide an opportunity for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. I don`t expect anything severe, but with the cold core of the upper low overhead on Thursday, some hail associated with these storms is not out of the question, especially east of I-65. By Friday, things will quiet down for awhile. The weekend will be dry and decent, but if you`re fan of the GFS, yet another system could be on tap this time next week (the Euro holds off until later in the week). It is March and we are in severe weather season, so if you haven`t done so already, take a minute this evening and visit ready.gov/plan. You can get some pointers on how to prepare yourself and your family BEFORE the storms get to you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 16, 2021 Author Share Posted March 16, 2021 National Weather Service Memphis TN 344 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 .DISCUSSION... The upper-low near the Four Corners continues to move east this afternoon with a well-defined baroclinic leaf downstream over the south-central CONUS. Pressure falls over the Southern Plains suggest surface cyclogenesis. This is verified by surface obs with a surface low and attendant triple point in northwest OK and a quasi-stationary front extending across AR into the TN Valley. Temperatures have overperformed by a few degrees with Memphis recording it`s first 80F reading of 2021 (last time was Nov 8). However, dewpoints have fallen into the 40s north of the stationary front resulting in a very pleasant afternoon. A few storms continue in the Starkville area, just south of the CWA, but we do expect this activity to gradually lift north along the warm front overnight. This convection is most likely after midnight. Strong shear and elevated instability may be sufficient to support a few weak, elevated supercells. With these storms being elevated, the primary risks will be hail up to the size of quarters and locally heavy rainfall. This convection will continue to lift north throughout the morning hours and is expected to reach the I-40 corridor after sunrise. Large scale forcing for ascent will be overspreading the CWA, steepening mid- level lapse rates and enhancing lift provided by warm advection and improving jet dynamics. Most of the convection by midday is expected to be in east AR or west TN with the warm sector across north MS likely seeing a bit of a lull. This lull will be important for destabilization. If we see a sufficient dry period, SBCAPE should be able to increase to 1500-2000 J/kg south of the warm front, whereas areas that remain in the muck will be see much more limited buoyancy. Shear will be quite strong with 0-6 km bulk wind difference near 60 kts. A few supercell structures are possible within the AM gunk, but will be more probable during the afternoon and evening hours where instability is stronger. If low-level warm advection and large scale ascent is sufficient to erode the cap, discrete supercells will be possible in the warm sector ahead of the cold front. This is the time for the greatest risk for strong (EF2+) tornadoes and sig hail (2+ inches). The cold front will approach the MS River after 00z, but storms are expected to develop along a pre-frontal trough during the mid/late afternoon hours. Strong line-normal shear will promote upscale growth, eventually forming into a QLCS. This QLCS will remain in a favorable environment for tornadoes and damaging wind as the low-level jet begins to intensify, but the large hail threat will begin to decrease. Several CAMs are representing 0-1 km storm relative helicity at or above 250 m2/s2 with Significant Tornado Parameter values of 1-3. As the line moves into west TN and north MS, we`ll maintain the risk for QLCS tornadoes and mesovortices. These tornadoes can develop quickly and it can be difficult to provide much lead time, especially far from the radar. Given the potential for nocturnal tornadoes, it is important to plan ahead and ensure you are capable of receiving timely weather alerts. In addition to the severe weather threat, locally heavy rainfall is possible. We`re looking at widespread 1-2" with localized higher amounts. This activity will largely end by 06z, but there may be some lingering showers and thunderstorms during the early morning hours. As the upper-low moves across the region on Thursday, expect scattered rain showers, mainly north of a Jonesboro- Savannah line. QPF with this precipitation should remain under 1/4 inch. Cooler and drier air will accompany Wednesday night`s cold front and will be ushered in by strong west winds. Wind gusts on Thursday may exceed 30 mph at times. Expect dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures on Friday with highs in the low/mid 50s. Given the dry air and clear skies, it`s possible that some areas will experience a frost Saturday morning. We`ll continue to monitor these trends for the weekend. Otherwise, temperatures will moderate over the weekend with dry conditions continuing through Sunday. Rain chances return next week. More details on that system as it approaches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 16, 2021 Author Share Posted March 16, 2021 National Weather Service Birmingham AL 308 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 0308 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021/ Through Wednesday morning. A wedge front is causing some chilly temperatures across the northeast counties this afternoon, with a milder and more humid air mass southwest of it. An effective warm front/low-level confluence axis across our southern counties is causing some training showers and storms there, aided by ripples in the southwest flow aloft. This activity will continue to cause locally heavy rainfall amounts across the south. Low streamflow values will mitigate the flooding threat somewhat, but some isolated flash flooding will be possible mainly in urban areas or if additional heavy rainfall moves into areas of our southwest counties that have already received 3 to 4 inches of rainfall. Effective shear values around 50 kts have resulted in a few rotating storms across our south this afternoon which could produce localized hail or damaging winds. Low-level SRH is marginal until you get further north to the wedge front, so while the threat for a brief tornado is non-zero, it is low. Further north, clouds are limiting instability. Severe potential further to the north seems fairly low, but will leave it in for the afternoon for now with some clearing occurring in our northwest counties. May get a lull in activity tonight with the loss in daytime heating before activity increases after midnight as the effective warm front lifts northward and another weak shortwave moves through. Most of the activity will be along and north of the warm front, with elevated instability and shear supportive of some hail and gusty winds. But if a storm is able to be rooted near the surface along the warm front, there will be a low but non-zero threat of an isolated tornado across the north early Wednesday morning. With a more significant threat later in the day on Wednesday, won`t be including this on our messaging at this time but will continue to monitor. 32/Davis .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0308 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021/ **Significant severe weather outbreak expected Wednesday and Wednesday night** Overall little change to the forecast thinking, with a relatively long duration and significant severe threat for all modes of severe weather. A potent and compact low-amplitude trough will move from the Southern Plains on Wednesday to the Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night, preceded by a 60-80kt mid-level speed max and a 40-50kt LLJ. A 998mb surface low will track from Oklahoma to Illinois with a broad warm sector with mid to upper 60s dew points in advance of a cold front. Shortwave ridging/anti-cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to develop Wednesday morning which should allow the early morning showers/storms to move out of the area. This will allow for heating and ample destabilization. CAPE values will increase to 2000 to 3000 J/kg across much of the area by afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate the air mass across the warm front will be uncapped across the warm sector by afternoon, and CAMs are in fairly good agreement on scattered to perhaps numerous supercells developing in the 1 to 4 PM timeframe. Low- level SRH is less than 200 m2/s2 initially during the afternoon, so large, potentially significant hail may be the main threat initially with 50 to 60kt of 0-6km shear aiding updraft rotation, but a couple isolated tornadoes will still be possible. For simplicity, will start the threat time at 2 PM everywhere to account for this activity. After 4 PM, the 850mb jet and associated SRH begins to really ramp up across West Alabama, and across the rest of the area by 6 to 7 PM. This is when concern for strong, potentially long track tornadoes will begin to ramp up with any semi-discrete supercells still present. We will also be monitoring mesoscale trends closely for the possibility of a violent tornado. It`s hard to find too many limiting factors for this event, but if I had to mention one it might be if too many storms get going too early before the low-level shear increases. However with the strong low-level jet and activity remaining cellular I don`t see this being much of a limiting factor. Will also need to monitor the northward movement of the wedge front. It could limit the afternoon threat across some of our far northeast counties, but also serve as an additional source of helicity for storms near the warm side of it. I do expect the wedge front to exit the area prior to the overnight activity. During the late evening and overnight hours, another strong line of storms will move in from the west ahead of the cold front. Shear vector orientation has a component normal to the line and the magnitude is strong as well. This will be favorable for embedded supercells in the line or a semi-broken line of supercells, therefore this activity will also be a concern for strong to intense long-track tornadoes, not just weak QLCS spin- ups. Additionally, any bowing segments will have a significant wind threat as well. Outside of storms, gradient winds near 35 mph will be possible, and will monitor for the possible need for a wind advisory. Activity will remain fairly progressive and antecedent conditions still fairly dry, limiting the overall flooding threat, but some minor flooding in poor drainage areas is possible, and some rivers are forecast to be near or above flood stage. The rest of the previous long term discussion remains valid. 32/Davis Previous long-term discussion: /Updated at 0311 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021/ Thursday through Sunday. Storms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across east Alabama, but should be in a weakening trend. Should see some clearing skies during the day Thursday as drier low level air moves in behind exiting cold front. However, strong cold air advection will also bring low clouds back into the area Thursday afternoon, starting in the west and spreading eastward. A much colder air mass Thursday night and into weekend with temperatures back closer to normal values. May not see much sunshine Friday as cyclonic circulation keeps low level moisture in the area. A few sprinkles not out of the question on Friday as an upper level vort lobe pushes down from the north. Partly cloudy over the weekend with a gradual warming trend. 58/rose 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VOLtage Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 SPC saying they may upgrade to a high risk for the Day 1 outlook late tonight. Hope everyone in the path of this system stays safe! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Folks in SE TN shouldn't sleep on this system..while nowhere near as robust as AL/MS, there is a potential for a lower end tornado across that area..excellent write up from MRX. Confidence has increased a bit for severe convection over the S half of the CWA Wed night, but uncertainty still exists regarding both how far N and how quickly the warm front will advance into our region which determines where the surface instability gradient will be. The mid/upper closed low and surface low complex will lift toward S IL Wed night with the surface low deepening to about 995 mb. As this occurs, the upper jet rounding the E side of the system will strengthen to 100-110 kts and shift over the TN Valley and S Appalachians causing the LLJ to strengthen to 50-70 kts. This will support strong WAA and moisture transport, as well as strong frontogentic forcing along and north of a northward advancing warm front. The last few runs of the NAM are outliers in keeping the warm front S of our region, whereas the RAP, HRRR, and deterministic GFS, ECMWF, and CMC lift the front and associated theta e/dew point into the S Plateau and SE TN in the 06-12Z timeframe. This front is the wild card. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be ongoing across AL and GA early Wed night as this front lifts N, as well as a squall line farther W near the eastward advancing cold front. Strong deep layer shear of 50-70 kts+, 0-1 Km shear of 40-50 kts, and strongly veered wind profiles N of the warm front characterized by 0- 1 Km SRH of 400-600 M2/S2 and curved hodographs support a potentially volatile environment that could support tornadoes as well as large hail and damaging winds. However, areas N of the warm front will not have any surface instability (all elevated) and the LCL heights will be too high N of the warm front. This means that tornado potential is limited to areas where the warm front can make it to (likely the S Plateau into SE TN) where areas farther N will only see elevated convection with pockets of hail and damaging winds. In terms of timing, the severe weather threat should generally be 06-09Z over the S Plateau and S Valley (W of I-75) and 07Z-11Z over the rest of SE TN and SW NC. Overall, confidence is high that we will see pockets of damaging winds and hail, but the confidence on tornadoes is low. Repeated rounds of convection could start to cause localized flooding issues by late Wed night, especially over the S half of the region where total rainfall of 1-2 inches is possible. Finally, the strong 50-70 kt LLJ Wed night will lead to high winds in the E TN mountains and foothills. Issued a High Wind Watch for this potential (see product for details). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Oh just wonderful! Reads like the Midnight Easter 2020 Chattanooga just-in-time instability, with ridiculous deep layer shear, and ludicrous low level shear tornado. In March the warm front should have less of a chance of making it into southeast Tennessee overnight, compared with in April. However Wednesday night is a dynamic system bringing in plenty of warm advection. Biggest concern is Alabama strong tornadoes deep into the overnight hours Wednesday night, perhaps well past Midnight. More tomorrow about Daytime locations such as the Delta and Mid-South. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Warm front looks pretty healthy this AM: High Risk in effect now: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Already a Watch through 1 PM Central and a warned cell in west central MS: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Warm front looks pretty healthy this AM: High Risk in effect now: That WF is moving faster than I expected. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Does the SPC outlook go into the overnight hours? I’ve heard a variety of answers but I feel like this forum will have the best answers. TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 42 minutes ago, Scottie16 said: Does the SPC outlook go into the overnight hours? I’ve heard a variety of answers but I feel like this forum will have the best answers. TIA. Yes. It goes from 12z to 12z if I remember correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 17, 2021 Author Share Posted March 17, 2021 42 minutes ago, Scottie16 said: Does the SPC outlook go into the overnight hours? I’ve heard a variety of answers but I feel like this forum will have the best answers. TIA. Generally yes,until midnight CST,then the next day takes over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch upcoming for central Mississippi and Central Alabama! Rapid destabilization in progress. Shear is already higher than progged, per observed soundings. Outflow boundary separated from warm front, south of cooler sector. Coastal theta E surge (and wind shift) is rushing north too. That's not one, but two boundaries to enhance low-level shear. This does not get Mississippi and Alabama out of the overnight threat. Atmosphere will still get even worse as the second line slams in tonight. Low level jet strengthens over Alabama tonight, increasing shear even more. CAPE maintains positive. Yes @Scottie16 it goes through 6am Thursday morning. Make sure you have two LOUD ways to get notified overnight. Weather Radio AND a subscription App. Free usually notifies too slow. 52 minutes ago, Scottie16 said: Does the SPC outlook go into the overnight hours? REVISED from yesterday: I believe these boundaries in the free warm sector are the bigger daytime threat. Previously I considered the line out of Arkansas the main show. However that second line will be a dangerous problem for Mississippi this evening. Alabama faces a tornado threat all night, including strong long-track tornadoes through 3am. Any tornadoes are possible all the way until 6am Thursday. Tennessee is also at risk. Entire Mid South will explode this afternoon into southwest West Tenn. Middle Tennessee will probably get categorial upgrade (from where a certain location was before). Southeast Tennessee and North Georgia is in play tonight, unfortunately. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0200.html 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 17, 2021 Author Share Posted March 17, 2021 51 minutes ago, Scottie16 said: Does the SPC outlook go into the overnight hours? I’ve heard a variety of answers but I feel like this forum will have the best answers. TIA. Try this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 >95/90 on tornado probs with the PDS watch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 17, 2021 Author Share Posted March 17, 2021 28 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch upcoming for central Mississippi and Central Alabama! Rapid destabilization in progress. Shear is already higher than progged, per observed soundings. Outflow boundary separated from warm front, south of cold sector. Coastal theta E surge is rushing north too. This does not get Mississippi and Alabama out of the overnight threat. Atmosphere will still get even worse as the second line slams in tonight. Yes @Scottie16 it goes through 6am Thursday morning. Make sure you have two LOUD ways to get notified overnight. Weather Radio AND a subscription App. Free usually notifies too low. REVISED from yesterday: I believe these boundaries in the free warm sector are the bigger daytime threat. Previously I considered the line out of Arkansas the main show. However that second line will be a dangerous problem for Mississippi this evening. Alabama faces a tornado threat all night, including strong long-track tornadoes through 3am. Any tornadoes are possible all the way until 6am Thursday. Tennessee is also at risk. Entire Mid South will explode this afternoon into southwest West Tenn. Middle Tennessee will probably get categorial upgrade (from where a certain location was before). Southeast Tennessee is in play tonight, unfortunately. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0200.html That is a huge area for a PDS URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 29 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and central Alabama Central to eastern Mississippi * Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1135 AM until 700 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Numerous discrete supercells are expected to develop this afternoon capable of producing strong to intense tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles northwest of Gadsden AL to 35 miles southeast of Pine Belt MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Things are ramping in MS and AL fast. A second PDS Tornado Watch incoming for areas north and west of the current one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Warned storm near Selma looks rough on radar: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 I don't like the storm motion. They are all aimed straight up I-59 directly at SE TN. We really need that warm front to remain where it is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 17, 2021 Author Share Posted March 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Warned storm near Selma looks rough on radar: Yeah seems to be stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 17, 2021 Author Share Posted March 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Yeah seems to be stronger seems to be weakening some now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bamabonners Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: seems to be weakening some now What product is that and is it available to us as amateurs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 17, 2021 Author Share Posted March 17, 2021 grlevel2,yes you can get it but it is expensive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 This chaser is almost on the Selma/ Autauga county tornado: https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/brett.adair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 17, 2021 Author Share Posted March 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: This chaser is almost on the Selma/ Autauga county tornado: https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/brett.adair NE is Billingsley 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 17, 2021 Author Share Posted March 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: NE is Billingsley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Getting some sunshine here in Morgan County, now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Getting some sun here, too. I fear things may get dicey down this way after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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