Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: So am I to guess this includes your backyard? On the southern edge I guess . I don’t think I Jack if that’s what your’re asking. I just think the “best” axis is roughly that triangle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 My pick is ORH This looks good. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: People are neglecting the fact that there is also northern assist reviving the southern decay late in the game. I'm not sure I see where the N/stream helps ... it appears to be in negative interference overall... It's not 'phasing' - it's compressing the flow ( negative ) and that is speeding up factor and the wind max/jet structures of the S/stream end up absorbed into it and lose identity. That is way the deeper layer ( 500mb ) evolution shows it sloping back SW positive in rotation like this, The cyclone in OH becomes a cold front SE of Nova Scotia - Contrasting if the N/stream was late arriving assist - that would be stem wound low and not just a cold front escaping across the N Atl. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 I like the Euro and NAM depiction. I think the mid levels argue for north of the pike IMO. I also think the maps south of the pike are going to be more overdone vs north of the pike. 2-4" more like 1 to maybe 2". Maybe you cut off 25% near NH border? I think you have cooler mid levels and potentially better SG, so the 10:1 maps there aren't as egregious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Agree. It’s just how this season has gone. Persistence tends to win more often than not. There’s no SE ridge really do there’s no real reason why this doesn’t do the Messenger shuffle like most have this winter. Especially with that strong Dry HP nosing down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s just how this season has gone. Persistence tends to win more often than not. There’s no SE ridge really do there’s no real reason why this doesn’t do the Messenger shuffle like most have this winter. Especially with that strong Dry HP nosing down That could happen. I'm open to that. I'm just going by gut and how it looks as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm not sure I see where the N/stream helps ... it appears to be in negative interference overall... It's not 'phasing' - it's compressing the flow ( negative ) and that is speeding up factor and the wind max/jet structures of the S/stream end up absorbed into it and lose identity. That is way the deeper layer ( 500mb ) evolution shows it sloping back SW positive in rotation like this, The cyclone in OH becomes a cold front SE of Nova Scotia - Contrasting if the N/stream was late arriving assist - that would be stem wound low and not just a cold front escaping across the N Atl. What causes this rejuvination in the precip field? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I like the Euro an NAM depiction. I think the mid levels argue for north of the pike IMO. I also think the maps south of the pike are going to be more overdone vs north of the pike. 2-4" more like 1 to maybe 2". Maybe you cut off 25% near NH border? I think you have cooler mid levels and potentially better SG, so the 10:1 maps there aren't as egregious. Agree, for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 I jacked on the last 2 storms, so I'm pulling for the hat trick on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 39 minutes ago, weathafella said: Let’s get Kbos over 40 for respectability I’m trying to get over 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: My guess is beat axis is from about DXR on Ne thru WBY up to ORH over to Hollis by Will. SE of that will struggle with BL and nw of that will have less qpf What is WBY? Will's Back Yard International Airport? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: I jacked on the last 2 storms, so I'm pulling for the hat trick on this one. Jack Mehoff? I know him well. 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: What is WBY? Will's Back Yard International Airport? Lol. It’s Waterbury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: What is WBY? Will's Back Yard International Airport? Waterbury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: What is WBY? Will's Back Yard International Airport? believe he means waterbury...wtby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Fish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Just now, tavwtby said: believe he means waterbury...wtby Well cities and towns only use 3 letter abbreviations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My pick is ORH This looks good. That looks reasonable to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Fish That’s what I would go with with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 41 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm not sure I see where the N/stream helps ... it appears to be in negative interference overall... It's not 'phasing' - it's compressing the flow ( negative ) and that is speeding up factor and the wind max/jet structures of the S/stream end up absorbed into it and lose identity. That is way the deeper layer ( 500mb ) evolution shows it sloping back SW positive in rotation like this, The cyclone in OH becomes a cold front SE of Nova Scotia - Contrasting if the N/stream was late arriving assist - that would be stem wound low and not just a cold front escaping across the N Atl. Northern stream is not phasing but it looks close to me on the models. As is, I wouldn’t expect more than a slushy inch or two but this has a lot of upside if it moves toward a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 I feel like I would show a bit more latitude variation than a widespread 2-5" but given the uncertainty, I can't disagree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 24 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: That looks reasonable to me I'll take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 NAM cut back qpf by a third or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: NAM cut back qpf by a third or more. 3 km looks fairly similar to 12 z and has been more consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm not sure I see where the N/stream helps ... it appears to be in negative interference overall... It's not 'phasing' - it's compressing the flow ( negative ) and that is speeding up factor and the wind max/jet structures of the S/stream end up absorbed into it and lose identity. That is way the deeper layer ( 500mb ) evolution shows it sloping back SW positive in rotation like this, The cyclone in OH becomes a cold front SE of Nova Scotia - Contrasting if the N/stream was late arriving assist - that would be stem wound low and not just a cold front escaping across the N Atl. I'm betting on another "euro fail" with a good 50-60 mile south adjustment at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Just now, CT Valley Snowman said: 3 km looks fairly similar to 12 z and has been more consistent Yeah, it gives my hood 5" for about 6 hours of snow. Decent rate. I'll be sleeping through most of it, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vtrap90 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 The severe aspect of this storm system right now in the south is sobering. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, vtrap90 said: The severe aspect of this storm system right now in the south is sobering. Tuscaloosa getting hit again tornado on the ground! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Congrats Scott on the 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 17, 2021 Author Share Posted March 17, 2021 Interesting qpf distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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