Ginx snewx Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Rock and Roll kuchie koo? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 22 minutes ago, FXWX said: The road temp question is always misrepresented and not assessed correctly by many... rates always win-out. Even last night with glorified snow showers and patchy areas of steady light snow we had to send out trucks to treat high elevation roads here in Burlington, as solid coating occurred. The potential for big rates easily out-weighs any road temp concerns... Yeah...it's really even arithmetically simple too - I mean, water holds ~ 4 kilo-joules per KG degree K, and concrete and other pavement aggregates are ~ 1 ... ...thus, just on napkins water is 4 X's more so than most street materials. At a more complex conceptual level...yeah, we can get into differential cooling rates within the strata of the subtsrate, to actual contact surface of the road.. But that also means that at a given temperature of pavement, snow falling on the pavement will melt and the cold water will absorb more heat than the road can give at that same temperature... so the road surface falls at 4 times the rate of the cold water trying to raise its temperature. ... so if keeps snowing... the road will snow cover pretty fast - It's always been a sort of a canard that the ground is too warm to support snow. It doesn't make a lot of science sense when considering material physics. That may be so at first, but it slips really fast with that the specific heat content of water being so much higher that aggregate materials of the streets. The water wins by a factor of 4 ... such that, the temp of the concrete falls faster than the water gains heat, and that sucks the thermal momentum from the street ...etc..etc.. I've seen partly sunny 58 F early afternoons in April with snow cover on the street by 8pm that same evening - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro likes interior SNE I’ll take my 3-4” on the euro. Get the seasonal totals up into the mid 50’s, not a bad winter by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: But it will be 60 next week... That illustrates my thoughts well, at least qualitatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 16 minutes ago, FXWX said: The road temp question is always misrepresented and not assessed correctly by many... rates always win-out. Even last night with glorified snow showers and patchy areas of steady light snow we had to send out trucks to treat high elevation roads here in Burlington, as solid coating occurred. The potential for big rates easily out-weighs any road temp concerns... But Many pro METS don’t seem to get this..especially at NWS? What gives? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 17, 2021 Author Share Posted March 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Rock and Roll kuchie koo? Multiple buns for throwing up a kuckie in this set-up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 I like from the ORH hills points NE for the best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That illustrates my thoughts well, at least qualitatively. Wouldn’t that be “Quantitatively?” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That illustrates my thoughts well, at least qualitatively. That is a bit on the high end IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Wouldn’t that be “Quantitatively?” No. I like the placement of the higher amounts, thus qualitatively....I think the amounts may be a but high, which is a quantitative issue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Definitely a NW of 84 type deal which is pretty typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Definitely a NW of 84 type deal which is pretty typical. Not this season lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Gah... ah well That matches the NAM fronto stuff decently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not this season lol I was gonna' say... lol If I get 4" it probably bumps me from a C- to a C for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Gah... ah well That matches the NAM fronto stuff decently First time you and I have ever rooted against snow. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: I was gonna' say... lol If I get 4" it probably bumps me from a C- to a C for the year. Still C- for me...I would need like a ten-spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 So ...frankly I am a bit surprised the Euro came in that robust - It is interesting that the Euro and NAM have been sort of yawing NW then back SE ..in tandem across these last last 5 model cycles. That seems to suggest the variance is not so much being attributable to specific model bias' ( although they got them..), but perhaps more so with initialization/data ingest as more likely the culprit. The NAM spent some part of the overnight with nothing - let us not forget that. And the Euro also struggled to hold onto its earlier 12z, 4-6" advisory -type result, too. So, yeah...movement en masse suggest the cause is broadly systemic - That said, this really occurs to me upon deeper reflection .. it just simply comes down to rate of decay of the southern stream as it arrives. Everything I mentioned earlier in the day when I was struggling to troll and failing - I guess they're on to me ...hm - is still true. The total system is attenuating in that regard. But, correctly timing the rate of decay - that's bigger ball of wax; it seems that could be explained by runs getting 'that much' better ( or at least different..) data initialization. The impetus being...strong/> momentum gets the goods further N. The suppression is coming... but that may wait that much longer while a bigger stone rolls by in the stream underneath - metaphor... I don't believe over land is an assimilation issue ... that seems to be more a sensitivity that arises from whether small pixels of wind max are missing or sampled - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: So ...frankly I am a bit surprised the Euro came in that robust - It is interesting that the Euro and NAM have been sort of yawing NW then back SE ..in tandem across these last last 5 model cycles. That seems to suggest the variance is not so much being attributable to specific model bias' ( although they got them..), but perhaps more so with initialization/data ingest as more likely the culprit. The NAM spent some part of the overnight with nothing - let us not forget that. And the Euro struggled to hold on to the 12z's 4-6" advisory -type result in its 00z run, too. So, yeah...movement en masse suggest the cause is broadly systemic - That said, this really occurs to me upon deeper reflection to just simply come down to rate of decay of the southern stream as it arrives. Everything I mentioned earlier in the day when I was struggling to troll and failing - I guess they're on to me ...hm - is still true. The total system is attenuating in that regard. But, correctly timing the rate of decay - it seems that could be explained by runs getting 'that much' better ( or at least different..) data initialization. The impetus being...strong/> momentum gets the goods further N. The suppression is coming... but that may wait that much longer while a bigger stone rolls by in the stream underneath - metaphor... I don't believe over land is an assimilation issue ... that seems to be more a sensitivity that arises from whether small pixels of wind max are missing or sampled - People are neglecting the fact that there is also northern assist reviving the southern decay late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Still C- for me...I would need like a ten-spot. Well yeah, I need 8-10" to average out but a decent advisory event would at least improve my mood. Not that I really want it since I'm still dealing with a knee injury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Yeah I'd prob cut the Euro 10 to 1 map in half. Not sure why Kuchie went wild....but I also don't think 8" in 5-6 hours is happening. I could maybe see 4-6 though where it snows very heavily for 3 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 I’d take the euro 2-4” here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 yeah this is another example in why suspending the model initialization arm of operations at NCEP was a brilliant move ... heh, kind of like the dissolution of the pandemic arm of the CDC 15 months prior to needing the pandemic arm of the CDC - ...I mean, that scale and degree of boobery is what drive frustration to the brink of conspiracy belief system - my f'n god Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Let’s get Kbos over 40 for respectability 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'd prob cut the Euro 10 to 1 map in half. Not sure why Kuchie went wild....but I also don't think 8" in 5-6 hours is happening. I could maybe see 4-6 though where it snows very heavily for 3 hours. Completely agree...this is why I liked it qualitatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not this season lol True...but early/late season gradients typically straddle the highway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Completely agree. Assuming this doesn't all of the sudden get squashed SE ala 06z NAM, a good test will be to see where the snow line is around 03z tomorrow night...if it's already snowing around ORH up to your hood by 11pm, then it's prob game-on for at least solid advisory. But if we get to 1-2am and we're still screwing around with sleet/rain near the MA/NH border, then it's prob lower end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 My guess is beat axis is from about DXR on Ne thru WBY up to ORH over to Hollis by Will. SE of that will struggle with BL and nw of that will have less qpf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: My guess is beat axis is from about DXR on Ne thru WBY up to ORH over to Hollis by Will. SE of that will struggle with BL and nw of that will have less qpf Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: My guess is beat axis is from about DXR on Ne thru WBY up to ORH over to Hollis by Will. SE of that will struggle with BL and nw of that will have less qpf So am I to guess this includes your backyard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: My guess is beat axis is from about DXR on Ne thru WBY up to ORH over to Hollis by Will. SE of that will struggle with BL and nw of that will have less qpf That would fit the season, so it would not surprise me, but I think north of there....ORH through NE MA/SE NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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