40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: It's not totally elevation. Because the temps 850-700 get to be like a SWFE...warmer to the south. So maybe elevation matters to a point, but so will latitude. I was going to say that, but it would sound better coming from you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: It's not totally elevation. Because the temps 850-700 get to be like a SWFE...warmer to the south. So maybe elevation matters to a point, but so will latitude. Are you saying h85 above 0 won’t allow Kevin at 975 to snow? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s going to be much more significant with elevation . These events always are . Not gonna matter once it flips. Everyone transitions safely below freezing to accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Just now, dendrite said: Not gonna matter once it flips. Everyone transitions safely below freezing to accumulate. Yes. Elevation doesn’t look like a significant factor. It’s who has the hardest and most precip left after the flip. More than one model is painting out a scooter to northern Plymouth county as a potential max area, which kind of makes sense, further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: LOL, ..that's an easy question - Anyone wanna win a nobel prize for Science in deterministic weather forecasting ? No, but it's like a negative integral, one happening in fluid time... there is a rate of cyclogenic factoring/decay ... and at some point along that curve the structures becoming gradually more ANA ... everything paralleling boundaries. There's no real way to tell exactly 'when' it becomes critically lost to what location. Thanks that's what I figured, just checking if I was missing something. Looking at 850 wind barbs, how cyclonic vs. just parallel to the frontal boundary. And relatedly, how bent back vs. flat are the temp contours. At least on 0z Euro and 12z NAM, the cyclonic character looks best at 6z-9z and then starts to squash out by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's not totally elevation. Because the temps 850-700 get to be like a SWFE...warmer to the south. So maybe elevation matters to a point, but so will latitude. I meant more for better accumulations .. or easier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 42 minutes ago, weathafella said: Regarding the dearth of rain to snow in late season.....I would argue that late season is when it’s most favored. Many of our biggest late season snows started as rain. Some of the discussions in here have me baffled. I mean in recent ( under 5 years) we have had serious rain to snow storms in March, multiple rain to snow Anafrontal accumulating snow storms. If the lift is there it will bomb snow. I also read in an AFD about the roads being too warm to accumulate. Its baffling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 46 minutes ago, dendrite said: The snow maps seem a little overboard imo. I'm looking in NE MA and it's still rain on the v15 at 39hr with 2m around 40F. Then it's snow at 42hr with 3hr QPF of 0.30-0.40" but a 6hr snow of 3-4". So it's taking that entire 3hr period as 10:1 snow when really it's starting as rain, transitioning, and then falling as snow onto initially warm/wet ground. You have to be more careful with the clowns than usual with the transitioning ptype. It looks impactful for the commute regardless, but I'd definitely shave some inches off of those Pivotal maps in spots. Thank you for bringing this up .. the clown maps have been driving me crazy the past couple days for this reason haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I meant more for better accumulations .. or easier Temp drops rapidly. Maybe ORH airport briefly accumulates better than lower spots, but to me..the biggest issue is how far north or south does the 850-700 temps get and where is the H7 warm front. Where that briefly pivots and stalls, will be where the jack is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Some of the discussions in here have me baffled. I mean in recent ( under 5 years) we have had serious rain to snow storms in March, multiple rain to snow Anafrontal accumulating snow storms. If the lift is there it will bomb snow. I also read in an AFD about the roads being too warm to accumulate. Its baffling Makes you wonder sometimes where some of these supposed pros got their education from? And if they even have any real world experience? Sad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Temp drops rapidly. Maybe ORH airport briefly accumulates better than lower spots, but to me..the biggest issue is how far north or south does the 850-700 temps get and where is the H7 warm front. Where that briefly pivots and stalls, will be where the jack is. Basically pure deformation at H85 here. Axis of dilatation right through MA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Basically pure deformation at H85 here. Axis of dilatation right through MA. That will leave a mark, but it will be 60 Sunday so it can't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 55 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was going to say that, but it would sound better coming from you. Just say “We at eastern MaWx feel this isn’t totally elevation dependent.” He loves to hear it coming from that source. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Basically pure deformation at H85 here. Axis of dilatation right through MA. Put up 700 for the people at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: That will leave a mark, but it will be 60 Sunday so it can't happen Yup..winter, she done. She let us out. Ovah. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Put up 700 for the people at home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Put up 700 for the people at home. Here's 700 at 06z Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Here's 700 at 06z Friday Given that and where the DGZ is, that is congrats nrn MA and SNH IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Of course that is assuming GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Of course that is assuming GFS is right. Nammy...but yeah that does look like NH/MA border. DGZ was looking a little dry when I was looking at soundings in NE MA though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Of course that is assuming GFS is right. That was the NAM actually. It does collapse it SE...here is 09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 I don't think I have ever not rooted for snow... yet here we are 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That was the NAM actually. It does collapse it SE...here is 09z. Might be when it starts to weaken as it becomes more CAA at 700 vs getting the good convergence east of the low with some WAA and strong fronto like at 6z. Anyways, that's not always the end game (see 3/4/19 haha), but something to watch. Every model places it a little different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Given that and where the DGZ is, that is congrats nrn MA and SNH IMO. Yes....EURO, as well. My point all along. Believe me, if I thought I was porked, I would not hesitate to admit that. Would it surprise me if it did end up like shit here, not at all, but I like the look of guidance at present. Forget the QPF gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Might be when it starts to weaken as it becomes more CAA at 700 vs getting the good convergence east of the low with some WAA and strong fronto like at 6z. Anyways, that's not always the end game (see 3/4/19 haha), but something to watch. Every model places it a little different. Seems to me the system intensifies at the last moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 56 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Some of the discussions in here have me baffled. I mean in recent ( under 5 years) we have had serious rain to snow storms in March, multiple rain to snow Anafrontal accumulating snow storms. If the lift is there it will bomb snow. I also read in an AFD about the roads being too warm to accumulate. Its baffling The road temp question is always misrepresented and not assessed correctly by many... rates always win-out. Even last night with glorified snow showers and patchy areas of steady light snow we had to send out trucks to treat high elevation roads here in Burlington, as solid coating occurred. The potential for big rates easily out-weighs any road temp concerns... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Just now, FXWX said: The road temp question is always misrepresented and not assessed correctly by many... rates always win-out. Even last night with glorified snow showers and patchy areas of steady light snow we had to send out trucks to treat high elevation roads here in Burlington, as solid coating occurred. The potential for big rates easily out-weighs any road temp concerns... In Methuen they send the trucks out even if there is the slightest risk of snow....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, FXWX said: The road temp question is always misrepresented and not assessed correctly by many... rates always win-out. Even last night with glorified snow showers and patchy areas of steady light snow we had to send out trucks to treat high elevation roads here in Burlington, as solid coating occurred. The potential for big rates easily out-weighs any road temp concerns... Yep multiple accidents last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Euro likes interior SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Euro likes interior SNE But it will be 60 next week... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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