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With a last gasp effort, winter 20-21 refuses to give up the ghost


moneypitmike
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18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not playing any mind games.....I think a few inches of snow is a plausible scenario given the pantheon of guidance at this time. That said, its tenuous and could certainly fail. I am the last person to ever bank on the anafront dynamic....

 

Okay, but that wasn't addressed to you specifically - it's to the tenor in general ...

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's a pretty sick band from the pike up into N MA border region.

I'm not sure I buy that ... it's almost smaller than the grid meshing of the 32 km ... but, they do run the model at 3km ..

You know what this reminds me of a little... Mike Ekster and I were leaning over a stairwell guard rail ..I think it was when Eastern did a gathering down in Providence.  We were ruminating the NAM as being "too finely meshed" for it's own good.

It's like it gets down into those discrete levels and it can't perfectly resolve ... so it starts to fractal its own noise, and then ... it caries that noise onward into those later frames ( beyond 36...48 hours..etc..).  Granted, that was 15 years ago - but, it's like the NAM tries to get cute with features like that. 

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So, I'll try to be less snarky and sarcastic here:

I do see synoptic limitations to this as being a bigger player... I think we can all agree that much.

But, to get this to a pedestrian even in a narrow corridor - can that still be achieved? 

Not sure... the deep layer is attenuating.   But, there is a narrow window of 700 mb to 500 mb wind acceleration up over the polarward side of the baroclinic wall ... that's really what that WAA/ weak wave signature is running along S of LI on the NAM ... but, that is in a race ...because that is losing that wind accelaration aloft, as well, just before the N/stream's arrival and subsequent compression/suppression. These latter two factors are arguing for shutting it off - but there could be moderate fall rates of big cold rain drops risking flip for 4 or so hours. It seems the NAM is really hitting that flip.

Will is right - tough forecast. Because for 4-6 hours prior to everything setting sights on next autumn as the next threat ... ( lol ), that window may get cold rain to flip..  I think the NAM is hitting that too hard...and I think the global numerical models have a tendency to overly smooth those kind of crack in the frame work opportunities.

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Ugh...GFS has me back in play for a couple too. I tend to believe the sharp N cutoff from the high press like the NAM twins have.

I think the cut off will be north of the MA/NH border bc there is some mid level deformation to the north...especially later in the game.

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8 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Tip or anyone... I know there's a continuum... at what levels do you assess degree of cyclonic mechanics within an anafrontal setup?

This particular system seems like a good case to appreciate this.

LOL, ..that's an easy question -

Anyone wanna win a nobel prize for Science in deterministic weather forecasting ? 

No, but it's like a negative integral, one happening in fluid time... there is a rate of cyclogenic factoring/decay ... and at some point along that curve the structures becoming gradually more ANA ... everything paralleling boundaries.

There's no real way to tell exactly 'when' it becomes critically lost to what location.  

 

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The snow maps seem a little overboard imo. I'm looking in NE MA and it's still rain on the v15 at 39hr with 2m around 40F. Then it's snow at 42hr with 3hr QPF of 0.30-0.40" but a 6hr snow of 3-4". So it's taking that entire 3hr period as 10:1 snow when really it's starting as rain, transitioning, and then falling as snow onto initially warm/wet ground. You have to be more careful with the clowns than usual with the transitioning ptype. It looks impactful for the commute regardless, but I'd definitely shave some inches off of those Pivotal maps in spots.

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Regarding the dearth of rain to snow in late season.....I would argue that late season is when it’s most favored.  Many of our biggest late season snows started as rain.

Yup..... April 1997 and March 2018...two of my larges events.

Dec 1992, also....though early season.

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Just now, dendrite said:

The snow maps seem a little overboard imo. I'm looking in NE MA and it's still rain on the v15 at 39hr with 2m around 40F. Then it's snow at 42hr with 3hr QPF of 0.30-0.40" but a 6hr snow of 3-4". So it's taking that entire 3hr period as 10:1 snow when really it's starting as rain, transitioning, and then falling as snow onto initially warm/wet ground. You have to be more careful with the clowns than usual with the transitioning ptype. It looks impactful for the commute regardless, but I'd definitely shave some inches off of those Pivotal maps in spots.

Yea, the 6"+ is fantasy.

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The snow maps seem a little overboard imo. I'm looking in NE MA and it's still rain on the v15 at 39hr with 2m around 40F. Then it's snow at 42hr with 3hr QPF of 0.30-0.40" but a 6hr snow of 3-4". So it's taking that entire 3hr period as 10:1 snow when really it's starting as rain, transitioning, and then falling as snow onto initially warm/wet ground. You have to be more careful with the clowns than usual with the transitioning ptype. It looks impactful for the commute regardless, but I'd definitely shave some inches off of those Pivotal maps in spots.

It’s going to be much more significant with elevation . These events always are . 

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Regarding the dearth of rain to snow in late season.....I would argue that late season is when it’s most favored.  Many of our biggest late season snows started as rain.

Absolutely.  Happens quite a bit this time of year. So saying how often does it go from significant rain and turn to snow and accumulate, and write it off  cuz of that is complete nonsense. As Ray just said  April 1, 1997, March 2018, and December 1992 are some memorable ones. 
 

And just saying...1888 started as rain...quite a bit of it too...then we know what happened. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s going to be much more significant with elevation . These events always are . 

It's not totally elevation. Because the temps 850-700 get to be like a SWFE...warmer to the south. So maybe elevation matters to a point, but so will latitude. 

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