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With a last gasp effort, winter 20-21 refuses to give up the ghost


moneypitmike
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Kevin's 3K a little more south. You see how delicate it is, but this does seem like oe of those events where 700-500 lift will dictate where the jack would be. Gonna need the DGZ to get smacked with VV to help flip that area over to snow. Look north of the H7 front IMO.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Kevin's 3K a little more south. You see how delicate it is, but this does seem like oe of those events where 700-500 lift will dictate where the jack would be. Gonna need the DGZ to get smacked with VV to help flip that area over to snow. Look north of the H7 front IMO.

Any gut thoughts on where it may snow?

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Yup ... I don't buy it...

I think this doesn't do shit in the cold air ... we'll see.   

I'll tell yah, the upshot is that it's still going to be 60+ from Sunday through at least Wednesday this next week.  So even if this overcame all that synoptic limation the model is fighting against to get to these looks to happen ... the ensuing days almost make it tolerable.

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup ... I don't buy it...

I think this doesn't do shit in the cold air ... we'll see.   

I'll tell yah, the upshot is that it's still going to be 60+ from Sunday through at least Wednesday this next week.  So even if this overcame all that synoptic limation the model is fighting against to get to these looks to happen ... the ensuing days almost make it tolerable.

I wouldn't be shocked...tough to ever trust these set ups, but you have to hedge against modeling pretty strongly to forecast nothing at this point.

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16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't be shocked...tough to ever trust these set ups, but you have to hedge against modeling pretty strongly to forecast nothing at this point.

Oh..well "NOTHING" as a distinction isn't really what I had in mind, either.   Pistol to head?  I think it cold rains more in CT/RI with sub-cat paw blats on the windshields, then some pingers start bouncing here and there...and then some mangle noodles then it ends... maybe a silver inch that turns diamond hard before disappearing Saturday...something snarky like that though.. .

I don't like exuberance using tactical avoidance ...refocusing on aspect that make the positive returns thus seem more plausible?

That is a delusional process, frankly. And although it is ultimately harmless in a random public internet social-media platform, such as this site and its ability to exert such a HUGE influence over a wide range of institutional policies ( LOL...), it's still toe-nail-curling to see. 

I know...I know.  Lighten up -  ...it may very well be the last chance for 7 months ( until the dependable October snow event next autumn ...) to tie off the bicep and slap the forearm veins.

 

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19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

have to go by history-how often has back end rain changing to snow worked out after 2 inches of rain has fallen?   I'll take almost never for $500 Alex

This, I admit...  is part of the doubt-canvas for me in all this, not just applicable as a general rule down around OKX's AD but should be applied everywhere. 

It looks like a cyclone that is attenuating and breaking down toward that kind of 'ANA' look - and that's a red flag for me.

Then, adding to that ... the 00z Euro was paltry and sub-pedestrian... in fact, a business meeting's distraction away from ever knowing there may have been snow falling look about it.  Heh. Then adding, having to rely upon a model that tends to be the the last model to give up a NW position ... Then, adding a bunch of other negatives ...like the whole structure is attenuating upon arrive in the deep layer mechanics; the N/stream is faux phasing and is really bringing suppression factor...

It could still just be a unique situation where it succeeds with no way of doing so ...haha

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This, I admit...  is part of the doubt-canvas for me in all this, not just applicable as a general rule down around OKX's AD but should be applied everywhere. 

It looks like a cyclone that is attenuating and breaking down toward that kind of 'ANA' look - and that's a red flag for me.

Then, adding to that ... the 00z Euro was paltry and sub-pedestrian... in fact, a business meeting's distraction away from ever knowing there may have been snow falling look about.  Heh. Then adding, having to rely upon a model that tends to be the the last model to give up a NW position ... Then, adding a bunch of other negatives ...like the whole structure is attenuating upon arrive in the deep layer mechanics.    

It could still just be a unique situation where it succeeds with no way of doing so ...haha

0Z Euro was very stout 

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28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh..well "NOTHING" as a distinction isn't really what I had in mind, either.   Pistol to head?  I think it cold rains more in CT/RI with sub-cat paw blats on the windshields, then some pingers start bouncing here and there...and then some mangle noodles then it ends... maybe a silver inch.

I don't like exuberance using tactical avoidance ...refocusing on aspect that make the positive returns thus seem more plausible?

That is a delusional process, frankly. And although it is ultimately harmless in a random public internet social-media platform like this site's ability to exert a HUGE influence over a wide range of institutional policies ( LOL...), it's still toe-nail-curling to see. 

I know...I know.  Lighten up -  ...it may very well be the last chance for 7 months ( until the dependable October snow event next autumn ...) to tie off the bicep and slap the forearm veins.

 

I'm not playing any mind games.....I think a few inches of snow is a plausible scenario given the pantheon of guidance at this time. That said, its tenuous and could certainly fail. I am the last person to ever bank on the anafront dynamic....

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