George001 Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 21 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: People here were talking warning amounts....massive busts, biggest of the winter for many. Tried to tell em I left the door open for maybe a 5% chance at a monster ocean low if the storm fully phased but yeah without a phase we weren’t getting those warning amounts. The snow maps are garbage, the setup was always marginal and even if we got a late partial phase even the more aggressive models didn’t favor anything more than 2-4/3-6 (those 6+ amounts were bullshit due to marginal temps holding down ratios). Even I had (relatively) low expectations for this storm, which is not a good sign if your looking for a big storm, as im not exactly known as a conservative forecaster. I still busted high as many areas including mine didn’t get a flake, but at least in the short range this was one of my better forecasts. No phasing+marginal temps in late March screams lean low on snowfall amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 5 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I am in a little more rural area than you so spring is the time when I can experience nice weather and no bugs yet. Plus I don’t really like high heat. Agreed on all counts. And while this month is running slightly BN for temps (though soon to be AN), it's going to be the sunniest March by far of my 23 here. For 1999-2020 March has averaged 8.6 sunny days. Today is #12 this month and the most so far (14 in 2015) should be passed early next week. Hope this doesn't presage a pattern switch to cold mank for April-May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 Any more snow coming up ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Any more snow coming up ? Ginx said the 28th I believe. Scoots had the 30th thru Napril 4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Any more snow coming up ? 12z GFS says nothing thru 4/4. Couple of RA events late net week so at least something might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Any more snow coming up ? I thought you said it was over? Especially down in the concrete jungle where you are. I think everybody outside of extreme northern New England is finished for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 It's dead, Jim 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: It's dead, Jim It sure is Bones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Any more snow coming up ? November 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 Subtracting the Euro's coherent amplitude bath its suddenly applying to trough out of no where D7 into 8 ... the entire run otherwise really looks very spring-like here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 39 minutes ago, dendrite said: November Let's hope it's not October or we can sell next winter too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 49 minutes ago, dendrite said: November Lol, Please not another October snow........ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 7 hours ago, WinterWolf said: What the hell does he look at? He just makes sh*t up... I mean, doesn't he run everyday?? He's just too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 1 hour ago, codfishsnowman said: I mean, doesn't he run everyday?? He's just too much In shorts and a tee shirt tomorrow. Was all done with layers Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ginx said the 28th I believe. Scoots had the 30th thru Napril 4th Eh the model guidance has the polar vortex over the North Pole with above average temps during that time frame. If anything that favors 70s like we had earlier in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ginx said the 28th I believe. Scoots had the 30th thru Napril 4th Sell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 9 minutes ago, George001 said: Eh the model guidance has the polar vortex over the North Pole with above average temps during that time frame. If anything that favors 70s like we had earlier in the month. Say wut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 Seasonable cool shot ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: Sell Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 28 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Seasonable cool shot ^^ George says 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 I didn’t say snow? I said watch for that period and that was two days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Sell 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I didn’t say snow? I said watch for that period and that was two days ago. La la la lock it up. We mention watch and it turns into forecast. You know their games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 Man that would be epic. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: La la la lock it up. We mention watch and it turns into forecast. You know their games. wouldn't that be something ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: La la la lock it up. We mention watch and it turns into forecast. You know their games. Lol....Roy would have to be deleted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Man that would be epic. I’ll take my 17” and be satisfied. That would put an exclamation point on this season, and shoot it into an “A” status here for sure. April ‘82 esque.... but that was even more snow and anomalous. What a blast that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 6 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Man that would be epic. Gone on the 0z runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 8 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Say wut That’s gfs guidance. I don’t use the gfs at all when making my forecasts, often I won’t even look at it. I prefer a 80/20 European Canadian blend in the long range (still too far out for the Navy, that’s more of a mid range model). The European and Canadian guidance have the polar vortex parked over the North Pole. Even that if that gfs run was right the polar vortex is still parked over the North Pole in that image. When I see a polar vortex parked over the North Pole I will always go with the warmer guidance and even that might be underdone, as the pattern favors warmth. 70s would not be surprising at all, I would say based on the blend of models I look it we are likely going to see a solid week+ of 60s with a couple of days soaring well into the 70s. When there is a atmospheric driver in place like a polar vortex over the North Pole that tends to dominate the pattern, an ensemble mean will smooth that out in the long range and as we approach the target time period will likely correct warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 8 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: George says 70s Maybe 3rd week of Napril Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 2 hours ago, George001 said: That’s gfs guidance. I don’t use the gfs at all when making my forecasts, often I won’t even look at it. I prefer a 80/20 European Canadian blend in the long range (still too far out for the Navy, that’s more of a mid range model). The European and Canadian guidance have the polar vortex parked over the North Pole. Even that if that gfs run was right the polar vortex is still parked over the North Pole in that image. When I see a polar vortex parked over the North Pole I will always go with the warmer guidance and even that might be underdone, as the pattern favors warmth. 70s would not be surprising at all, I would say based on the blend of models I look it we are likely going to see a solid week+ of 60s with a couple of days soaring well into the 70s. When there is a atmospheric driver in place like a polar vortex over the North Pole that tends to dominate the pattern, an ensemble mean will smooth that out in the long range and as we approach the target time period will likely correct warmer. Where is the polar vortex again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now