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With a last gasp effort, winter 20-21 refuses to give up the ghost


moneypitmike
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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Notice he didn’t post the anomaly map. Think before you get nasty 

That wasn’t nasty Kev,  just an honest question is all.  I don’t feel it’s been AN this month either. We’ve had quite a bit of cold days...this whole week as been winter like.  So I’m thinking the same way he is...you’re idea of it being predominantly warm this month is lost on me too.  There were a few gorgeous days...but besides that, no. 

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https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=CF6&issuedby=BDL

 

By the numbers slightly below normal at BDL, however the number of negative departure days clearly outpaces AN days. .  Unless one has an agenda, it would be hard to get to this point in the month thinking that it's been mild or above normal with the exception of a few very beautiful days.  We will flip the script going forward now but we clearly wasted some temperatures that could have contributed to some late season snowfall to help us get closer to our averages.  

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The convective sequencing idea has merit as phenomenon in itself.

I'm not entirely sold it is primary in why this event did not snow more above NYC, along ALB to BOS. 

That region averaged .6 to .9" of rainfall... which is still 70 some-odd percentile of the QPF - however, I would point out that that could be explained without 'convection robbing'

For one thing ... convection explosions seed latent heat exhaust downstream. That tends to fix/correct heights higher immediately astride along the right side of the storm tracks. This can cause cyclones to track NW of guidance ... albeit more or less demonstratively so. I mean it can be subtle.

But here's the thing ... this was losing cyclogenic kinematics as it was moving E on whole ... devolving into an open baroclinic field.  There really was "less or even no cyclone to correct"   

So perhaps ... if there was no convection at all.. the ANA aspect would have lingered longer ?    yeah maybe... But that may be too difficult to parse out anyway. 

I would also point out that models typically over dose ANA QPF to the surface, too long and much - I wonder ... if there is a standard error ANA, and if this events 'missing' QPF ...I bet it closer to the model bias.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=CF6&issuedby=BDL

 

By the numbers slightly below normal at BDL, however the number of negative departure days clearly outpaces AN days. .  Unless one has an agenda, it would be hard to get to this point in the month thinking that it's been mild or above normal with the exception of a few very beautiful days.  We will flip the script going forward now but we clearly wasted some temperatures that could have contributed to some late season snowfall to help us get closer to our averages.  

He is unreal. Agenda driven narcissistic posts. 

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41 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

He is unreal. Agenda driven narcissistic posts. 

It gets to the point where it’s downright annoying.  I get the kidding around and stuff, but when the info is clearly false/wrong, and it’s being pushed as fact, it’s not cool.  And just plain misleading. 

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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It gets to the point where it’s downright annoying.  I get the kidding around and stuff, but when the info is clearly false/wrong, and it’s being pushed as fact, it’s not cool.  And just plain misleading. 

So so so much venom, hate and anger from a few of you. Sad to see it really 

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