Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 On 3/17/2021 at 6:42 PM, CoastalWx said: So am I to guess this includes your backyard? Expand On the southern edge I guess . I don’t think I Jack if that’s what your’re asking. I just think the “best” axis is roughly that triangle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 My pick is ORH This looks good. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 On 3/17/2021 at 6:30 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: People are neglecting the fact that there is also northern assist reviving the southern decay late in the game. Expand I'm not sure I see where the N/stream helps ... it appears to be in negative interference overall... It's not 'phasing' - it's compressing the flow ( negative ) and that is speeding up factor and the wind max/jet structures of the S/stream end up absorbed into it and lose identity. That is way the deeper layer ( 500mb ) evolution shows it sloping back SW positive in rotation like this, The cyclone in OH becomes a cold front SE of Nova Scotia - Contrasting if the N/stream was late arriving assist - that would be stem wound low and not just a cold front escaping across the N Atl. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 I like the Euro and NAM depiction. I think the mid levels argue for north of the pike IMO. I also think the maps south of the pike are going to be more overdone vs north of the pike. 2-4" more like 1 to maybe 2". Maybe you cut off 25% near NH border? I think you have cooler mid levels and potentially better SG, so the 10:1 maps there aren't as egregious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 On 3/17/2021 at 6:39 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Agree. Expand It’s just how this season has gone. Persistence tends to win more often than not. There’s no SE ridge really do there’s no real reason why this doesn’t do the Messenger shuffle like most have this winter. Especially with that strong Dry HP nosing down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 On 3/17/2021 at 6:53 PM, Damage In Tolland said: It’s just how this season has gone. Persistence tends to win more often than not. There’s no SE ridge really do there’s no real reason why this doesn’t do the Messenger shuffle like most have this winter. Especially with that strong Dry HP nosing down Expand That could happen. I'm open to that. I'm just going by gut and how it looks as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 On 3/17/2021 at 6:49 PM, Typhoon Tip said: I'm not sure I see where the N/stream helps ... it appears to be in negative interference overall... It's not 'phasing' - it's compressing the flow ( negative ) and that is speeding up factor and the wind max/jet structures of the S/stream end up absorbed into it and lose identity. That is way the deeper layer ( 500mb ) evolution shows it sloping back SW positive in rotation like this, The cyclone in OH becomes a cold front SE of Nova Scotia - Contrasting if the N/stream was late arriving assist - that would be stem wound low and not just a cold front escaping across the N Atl. Expand What causes this rejuvination in the precip field? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 On 3/17/2021 at 6:50 PM, CoastalWx said: I like the Euro an NAM depiction. I think the mid levels argue for north of the pike IMO. I also think the maps south of the pike are going to be more overdone vs north of the pike. 2-4" more like 1 to maybe 2". Maybe you cut off 25% near NH border? I think you have cooler mid levels and potentially better SG, so the 10:1 maps there aren't as egregious. Expand Agree, for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 I jacked on the last 2 storms, so I'm pulling for the hat trick on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 On 3/17/2021 at 6:34 PM, weathafella said: Let’s get Kbos over 40 for respectability Expand I’m trying to get over 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 On 3/17/2021 at 6:38 PM, Damage In Tolland said: My guess is beat axis is from about DXR on Ne thru WBY up to ORH over to Hollis by Will. SE of that will struggle with BL and nw of that will have less qpf Expand What is WBY? Will's Back Yard International Airport? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 On 3/17/2021 at 7:06 PM, 78Blizzard said: I jacked on the last 2 storms, so I'm pulling for the hat trick on this one. Expand Jack Mehoff? I know him well. 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 On 3/17/2021 at 7:18 PM, Cold Miser said: What is WBY? Will's Back Yard International Airport? Expand Lol. It’s Waterbury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 On 3/17/2021 at 7:18 PM, Cold Miser said: What is WBY? Will's Back Yard International Airport? Expand Waterbury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 On 3/17/2021 at 7:18 PM, Cold Miser said: What is WBY? Will's Back Yard International Airport? Expand believe he means waterbury...wtby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Fish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 On 3/17/2021 at 7:29 PM, tavwtby said: believe he means waterbury...wtby Expand Well cities and towns only use 3 letter abbreviations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 On 3/17/2021 at 6:49 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: My pick is ORH This looks good. Expand That looks reasonable to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 On 3/17/2021 at 7:30 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Fish Expand That’s what I would go with with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 On 3/17/2021 at 6:49 PM, Typhoon Tip said: I'm not sure I see where the N/stream helps ... it appears to be in negative interference overall... It's not 'phasing' - it's compressing the flow ( negative ) and that is speeding up factor and the wind max/jet structures of the S/stream end up absorbed into it and lose identity. That is way the deeper layer ( 500mb ) evolution shows it sloping back SW positive in rotation like this, The cyclone in OH becomes a cold front SE of Nova Scotia - Contrasting if the N/stream was late arriving assist - that would be stem wound low and not just a cold front escaping across the N Atl. Expand Northern stream is not phasing but it looks close to me on the models. As is, I wouldn’t expect more than a slushy inch or two but this has a lot of upside if it moves toward a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 I feel like I would show a bit more latitude variation than a widespread 2-5" but given the uncertainty, I can't disagree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 On 3/17/2021 at 7:31 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: That looks reasonable to me Expand I'll take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 NAM cut back qpf by a third or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 On 3/17/2021 at 8:15 PM, 78Blizzard said: NAM cut back qpf by a third or more. Expand 3 km looks fairly similar to 12 z and has been more consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 On 3/17/2021 at 6:49 PM, Typhoon Tip said: I'm not sure I see where the N/stream helps ... it appears to be in negative interference overall... It's not 'phasing' - it's compressing the flow ( negative ) and that is speeding up factor and the wind max/jet structures of the S/stream end up absorbed into it and lose identity. That is way the deeper layer ( 500mb ) evolution shows it sloping back SW positive in rotation like this, The cyclone in OH becomes a cold front SE of Nova Scotia - Contrasting if the N/stream was late arriving assist - that would be stem wound low and not just a cold front escaping across the N Atl. Expand I'm betting on another "euro fail" with a good 50-60 mile south adjustment at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 On 3/17/2021 at 8:19 PM, CT Valley Snowman said: 3 km looks fairly similar to 12 z and has been more consistent Expand Yeah, it gives my hood 5" for about 6 hours of snow. Decent rate. I'll be sleeping through most of it, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vtrap90 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 The severe aspect of this storm system right now in the south is sobering. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 On 3/17/2021 at 8:29 PM, vtrap90 said: The severe aspect of this storm system right now in the south is sobering. Expand Tuscaloosa getting hit again tornado on the ground! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Congrats Scott on the 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 17, 2021 Author Share Posted March 17, 2021 Interesting qpf distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now