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The Post Christmas storm threat is still vey real


Damage In Tolland

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lol.. Last year was the year of the block... this year is the year of the day 5 threat. I'm glad I don't have to spend Xmas looking at models now actually.

It sucks we missed this one but I guess it was never meant to be.

The euro will def come back east again at 12z and exactly like last storm it is another epic euro fail at day 4-5

What?

Do you know how premature this is? Just b/c models aren't showing some insane perfect solution does not mean this is done. This is virtually about timing/phasing...do you know how close really the GFS and even the NAM are to really capturing this and bringing it westward? It's definitely doable. It's not like were talking about a 6 HR+ difference.

This jumping has really got to stop.

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I really don't think this looks all that badly, I know it shows the storm a bit off to the east but this continues to be really close, all we need is some phasing to occur a hair earlier...aloft this has a much better look than the NAM does. It doesn't have to be perfect this far out, it's all about timing/phasing and as long as models continue to show the potential of this occurring this definitely isn't over. This doesn't really look anything like the NAM either I don't think.

I agree with you here, I don't think this far out we are looking that bad, I think the stall scenario off of DC is by the boards now, But we have an earlier capture and this gets tugged back NW, Its still not that far from a significant storm up here.........

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As I said yesterday... Elephant in the room, there has never been a KU in a strong Nina. And everyone bashed me yesterday for saying it lol

Elephant in the room...no one can understand why you're not banned. And that statement suggests we've never been buried in a strong Nina...and it's blatantly wrong....you're no sage brother.

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I agree with you here, I don't think this far out we are looking that bad, I think the stall scenario off of DC is by the boards now, But we have an earlier capture and this gets tugged back NW, Its still not that far from a significant storm up here.........

This is still about 3.5-4 days away...still far enough out to where these small differences can be made up phasing/timing wise. If this was Saturday AM than I'd definitely be worried.

As I said yesterday... Elephant in the room, there has never been a KU in a strong Nina. And everyone bashed me yesterday for saying it lol

Dude, there are only 7-9 years worth of data on this, sample size is way too small to make this sort of statement.

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Elephant in the room...no one can understand why you're not banned. And that statement suggests we've never been buried in a strong Nina...and it's blatantly wrong....you're no sage brother.

I'm sorry. I will ban myself from posting and start lurking.

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I'm sure it isn't over for Eastern NE yet... You guys stick out so far east. It may be over here (if it ever began).

But if you set your sights on a 20" blizzard and you get 8" and can't be happy with it ...... then sorry about that.

Put on Christmas music, look outside at the snow on the ground, and take deep breaths. Jesus.

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For God's sake it's Christmas and the holiday season. Enjoy family and friends. It's 4 days out, but if it turns out to be a messenger OES event, that's everyone's fault for acting like a 144hr prog is gospel. Pull the weenies...out when the rest of the suite comes in,.

Scott!!!

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lol.. Last year was the year of the block... this year is the year of the day 5 threat. I'm glad I don't have to spend Xmas looking at models now actually.

It sucks we missed this one but I guess it was never meant to be.

The euro will def come back east again at 12z and exactly like last storm it is another epic euro fail at day 4-5

You seem to flip around quite a bit with the models - if we see a hit in 12 hours I'd be willing to bet you'd lead the charge back on board the train. Everyone seems to be calling this storm off when we haven't gotten a full picture of the overall guidance for the 12z suite (including of course the euro and it's ens aka the most accurate in this range). Not only that it seems clear to me that a smidgen of difference in how the evolution plays out would generate a major hit for the coast.

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Its funny just following these threads and not actually posting. Everyone was happy and cheerful yesterday because of a few good model runs. Now today everyone is ready to put their fist through their monitor because of some bad model runs. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if tomorrow its the complete opposite again.

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As I said yesterday... Elephant in the room, there has never been a KU in a strong Nina. And everyone bashed me yesterday for saying it lol

Dude...I was a member at Eastern for years, but pretty much just a lurker there. I liked listening to the what the "experts" had to offer on the board. However, your consistent whining, negativity, and self-rightousness is getting rather annoying. I'm with Weathafella about you being banned too!

Put a weenie in your mouth and call it a day.

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Dude...I was a member at Eastern for years, but pretty much just a lurker there. I liked listening to the what the "experts" had to offer on the board. However, your consistent whining, negativity, and self-rightousness is getting rather annoying. I'm with Weathafella about you being banned too!

Put a weenie in your mouth and call it a day.

Thats not what I think he should put in his mouth

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