40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 You have 72 hours for even a 30 mile shift in longitude which may increase your snowfall by 6". Right...if not, 3"...if so, 8". Accounted for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 People that don't live down near that water don't get it! Ct rain lol on accums. I'm going to wait for the 12z but I'm thinking I'm going to have to shift the thoughts ive had for days 20 or so miles east maybe with the sharp .5 towards ktan? But will reserve judgement for a bit. Convergence on a course outside the bm by 10-20 miles seems to be occurring. Was talking to a silent pro on this board, wants to know how we can talk so much without getting to the heart of the matter/making predictions! I think making predictions is great but who cares? I mean I threw out numbers but seriously nobody gives a rats arse what I think. Tell your silent Pro we depend on them for accuracy and for making plans. I can go on and on about some Pros forecasts, model huggers abound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 You have 72 hours for even a 30 mile shift in longitude which may increase your snowfall by 6". Tis true, but the Murphy's Law model run out of Ryan's basement has been cruel lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The NAM has a ton of energy digging on the backside of this trough at hr 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Every time I drive down 84, I look in the distance for mighty Mt. Tolland. Never found it...maybe today is the day. You missed the turnoff.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 You missed the turnoff.. Lol, it's even got the weenie flag flying high on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Tis true, but the Murphy's Law model run out of Ryan's basement has been cruel lately. Yes it has, but knowing how quickly the snowfall will increase with longitude, I wouldn't totally write off a more favorable shift. His 3-8 is good for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 So if the 12 Z GFS goes back to the 0 Z position your thoughts will change again. I think this will come down to one thing, forward speed. As long as this is not hauling ass, dynamics will be off the hook and the CCB will be further NW than modeled, just look at the 6 Z, it really is not much different than0Z , just where the QPF alignment is. This might be a nowcast storm for KeV and me, do not rule out banding to the NW And in that case, Kevin gets his beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Yes it has, but knowing how quickly the snowfall will increase with longitude, I wouldn't totally write off a more favorable shift. His 3-8 is good for now. It's no impossible....just not likely. Gotta wk.....kp me updated plz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I think making predictions is great but who cares? I mean I threw out numbers but seriously nobody gives a rats arse what I think. Tell your silent Pro we depend on them for accuracy and for making plans. I can go on and on about some Pros forecasts, model huggers abound. I think some don't understand how we can have 100 page threads on storms without getting to the heart of it. I don't think they fully understand the enthusiasm or the addiction that this all becomes. The new NAM looks very good I think, very encouraging to see. Changes for the worse probably cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow what a change on the NAM. Digging energy is much further west, s/w in the gulf is stronger, going to be a nice line of storms saturday morning across the gulf. I'd think the NAM is going to look better on this run/left some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Digging down to the florida pan handle low forming off of GA......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 the nam really only had one way it could go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Yeah left......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 is that little low near the benchmark around 42 hours gonna kill the chance of a more nw solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 Srefs really nailed Monday's event at this range. I'm glad you agree 3-6 is a good call for NE CT..Esp 3 days out. Unusual that we agree on anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 the nam really only had one way it could go LOL, yeah I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'm glad you agree 3-6 is a good call for NE CT..Esp 3 days out. Unusual that we agree on anything But I thought he hasn't gotten 1 storm right in the last 2 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'm glad you agree 3-6 is a good call for NE CT..Esp 3 days out. Unusual that we agree on anything I'm pretty sure the SREFs were terrible at this range with the snowstorm in EMA, on the low side. NAM will likely be much more towards the GFS/EC if not even ramped up EDIT....at the witching hour for it though...48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I hope the NAM doesn't take away the 1-2" it's had for me for the last many runs. It's been very consisten with that , while the GFS has gone from mountains to zilch to in-between. At least with 2" I won't need to break out the snowblower; 3+ is my threshold for that (though I even find that kinda wimpy of me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 But I thought he hasn't gotten 1 storm right in the last 2 years? When you come down 84 today..look to your right after you pass exit 68..really between 68 and 67..and there's a tower way up on the hill there ..That's the highest point in town..1100 feet.It's weenie hill where I brought Will,Scooter and GAY..and GAY and Scooter made out there...My hill is the next one over from that tower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow what a change on the NAM. Digging energy is much further west, s/w in the gulf is stronger, going to be a nice line of storms saturday morning across the gulf. I'd think the NAM is going to look better on this run/left some. Make sure not to mention this in the MA threads, you'll get 20 jan 2000's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The NAM is maybe a hair west at hr 54 with the surface low, but the qpf shield is broader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 NAM still wants to hit BOS with some OES enhancement . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Make sure not to mention this in the MA threads, you'll get 20 jan 2000's I feel really bad for them down there. Energetic group, cruel the way this played out - but they also got two historic storms last winter so it is kind of our turn. I'm pulling for ski country on this one but not quite getting the love from the NAM yet. Looking better each run but the changes dampen out as the run goes along which is kind of typical. As they are finding down in the M/A often it ends up just being mild moves in one direction or another gradually over many runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 accumulating snow boston to pvd SE, lighter snow over almost all of SNE by 54. Nice! Lol, I don't know if "nice" is the word I'd use to describe this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 Tubing down Butternut Sunday with snow falling it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 You can see what the NAM does from 54h and beyond..it focuses the low center near an area of convection. Likely not right...iy affects the 5h field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 accum snow boston to pvd at 54, lighter snows over the rest of SNE. By 57 it gets away, and we're left with the other stuff. Disturbing that usually one of our most wound up models hasn't come to the global solution yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I feel really bad for them down there. Energetic group, cruel the way this played out - but they also got two historic storms last winter so it is kind of our turn. Three. They had three 20" storms last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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