The Post Christmas storm threat is still vey real

[Ginx snewx]

I must have missed it ginx what was your call for our area?

Still thinking this looks good said yesterday this ends up being a typical Noreaster only more intense with wind. I stand by that and so lets say 3-6 West of Ct River cept for Berks 8, 6-10 from HVN to ORH 8-12+ Taunton Bob to Ray, Maine guys 6-10 , interior NH 3-6.

I see an expansive inflow still. My call for now although too early you asked for it. East trend over ticks back west, still room for the extreme bombogenesis slow mover.

[skierinvermont]

SREF mean is a good bit west.. .5 line to the cape .25 to BOS... getting there

[nzucker]

I think there are worse insults about every 5 minutes on here.. not being able to read an H5 chart is not the worst thing in the world. If you didn't take things so seriously perhaps you wouldn't be so offended and derail the thread

I wasn't trying to derail the thread, I just made an educated post analyzing the models and you got all aggressive and nasty. Just apologize for your "colorful" (read:rude) language and move on, Andrew. You don't need to tell people they don't understand H5 charts; I think I'm one of the most reasonable and detailed posters among the amateurs on this board. I don't claim to be an expert at meteorology but I feel I contribute a lot of knowledge and analysis to the boards, and you should try to respect and acknowledge that instead of just slamming me. It isn't just this one post, it is constantly that you engage in this derogatory behavior.

[Akeem the African Dream]

Oh you will blow your load at the casino as far as snow goes. SE CT 4-7 looks good with ferocious winds all subject to Change which you will have none of. Enjoy

This is better than a 4 handed Asian massage.

You guys have a good forum in SNE. I really appreciate you uys giving me my weenie update while I am home with family over the holidays. I am on your side here.

[skierinvermont]

4-8

I agree .. good call at this point I think.. I'm still afraid of a whiff but am hoping for more.

[skierinvermont]

I wasn't trying to derail the thread, I just made an educated post analyzing the models and you got all aggressive and nasty. Just apologize for your "colorful" (read:rude) language and move on, Andrew. You don't need to tell people they don't understand H5 charts; I think I'm one of the most reasonable and detailed posters among the amateurs on this board. I don't claim to be an expert at meteorology but I feel I contribute a lot of knowledge and analysis to the boards, and you should try to respect and acknowledge that instead of just slamming me. It isn't just this one post, it is constantly that you engage in this derogatory behavior.

You read the H5 chart wrong (IMO). Deal with it. It is not the biggest insult in the world. If you have a problem why don't we discuss it privately because Will is going to have a heart attack when he reads all the BS for the past 2 pages.

[Ginx snewx]

I wasn't trying to derail the thread, I just made an educated post analyzing the models and you got all aggressive and nasty. Just apologize for your "colorful" (read:rude) language and move on, Andrew. You don't need to tell people they don't understand H5 charts; I think I'm one of the most reasonable and detailed posters among the amateurs on this board. I don't claim to be an expert at meteorology but I feel I contribute a lot of knowledge and analysis to the boards, and you should try to respect and acknowledge that instead of just slamming me. It isn't just this one post, it is constantly that you engage in this derogatory behavior.

Ok ok the public baby momma drama save it for Facebook, my space. Hey maybe a phone call,

[Ginx snewx]

This is better than a 4 handed Asian massage.

You guys have a good forum in SNE. I really appreciate you uys giving me my weenie update while I am home with family over the holidays. I am on your side here.

Which Casino?

[Akeem the African Dream]

Which Casino?

Sands in Bethelehm PA.

I am driving to Old Lyme Xmas morning from Allentown PA. I am in The Lehigh Valley with my parents for the holiday and going to the fiance's parents on Xmas Day. I had more time off than her and was able to come north earlier.

I just would like to move this precip up by about 6 hours (wishcast). What does BDL look like compared to coastal areas with this type of system? I believe this system is oing to have a sharp cutoff on the western end if I am not mistaken.

[Ginx snewx]

Still at 964 on the Euro as it passes us, holy crap, man CC is going to get smoked with winds, wow talking 74 mb gradient wow, easilyCat 1 gusts high trop sustained yow!

[nzucker]

SREF mean is a good bit west.. .5 line to the cape .25 to BOS... getting there

Yeah even .2" back towards NYC. Starting to get the feeling this is a moderate snowfall here in the neighborhood of 3-6" with solid warning amounts on Long Island. I hope the NWS alerts people to the potential very quickly with this last-minute west trend because I've heard a lot of talk around here about the storm being a miss. There'll be a lot of cars on the road so definitely a time to be careful with snowfall.

You read the H5 chart wrong (IMO). Deal with it. It is not the biggest insult in the world. If you have a problem why don't we discuss it privately because Will is going to have a heart attack when he reads all the BS for the past 2 pages.

Just be polite when you disagree; I've told you many times that you are great at debating but need to keep away from personal insults and attacks. You're plenty intelligent enough to respond to my post with maps showing the differences between the GFS and ECM, analogs for storms that took a certain track with said H5 depiction, other models etc. No reason to suggest I'm incapable of understanding a fundamental aspect of meteorology. You just become a monster behind the keyboard sometimes, not at all representative of your real life personality. Just be respectful of me, and anyone else, that you disagree with...bottom line is respect. Let's not discuss this anymore.

[skierinvermont]

Sands in Bethelehm PA.

I am driving to Old Lyme Xmas morning from Allentown PA. I am in The Lehigh Valley with my parents for the holiday and going to the fiance's parents on Xmas Day. I had more time off than her and was able to come north earlier.

Oh I think we both assumed you were going to the Mohegan Sun or Foxwoods. I remember talking to you a few months back about coming to OL for X-mas and how the A&P closed. You picked a good time to come.. I am hoping for a foot still. Hopefully we really cash in

[Ginx snewx]

Sands in Bethelehm PA.

I am driving to Old Lyme Xmas morning from Allentown PA. I am in The Lehigh Valley with my parents for the holiday and going to the fiance's parents on Xmas Day. I had more time off than her and was able to come north earlier.

I just would like to move this precip up by about 6 hours (wishcast). What does BDL look like compared to coastal areas with this type of system? I believe this system is oing to have a sharp cutoff on the western end if I am not mistaken.

Oh thought you were in my neck of the Foxwoods. Enjoy the snow it's definitely the only snow you got.

[skierinvermont]

Yeah even .2" back towards NYC. Starting to get the feeling this is a moderate snowfall here in the neighborhood of 3-6" with solid warning amounts on Long Island. I hope the NWS alerts people to the potential very quickly with this last-minute west trend because I've heard a lot of talk around here about the storm being a miss. There'll be a lot of cars on the road so definitely a time to be careful with snowfall.

Just be polite when you disagree; I've told you many times that you are great at debating but need to keep away from personal insults and attacks. You're plenty intelligent enough to respond to my post with maps showing the differences between the GFS and ECM, analogs for storms that took a certain track with said H5 depiction, other models etc. No reason to suggest I'm incapable of understanding a fundamental aspect of meteorology. You just become a monster behind the keyboard sometimes, not at all representative of your real life personality. Just be respectful of me, and anyone else, that you disagree with...bottom line is respect. Let's not discuss this anymore.

thanks mommy

take the drama offline. I'm done here

[Akeem the African Dream]

Oh I think we both assumed you were going to the Mohegan Sun or Foxwoods. I remember talking to you a few months back about coming to OL for X-mas and how the A&P closed. You picked a good time to come.. I am hoping for a foot still. Hopefully we really cash in

Oh yes, the A&P. My other half was impressed that I was so in tune with what is happening in Old Lyme.

She asked how I knew about A&P and I told her EasternUSWX. She then went to check it and the site was dead. :devilsmiley:

[Akeem the African Dream]

Oh thought you were in my neck of the Foxwoods. Enjoy the snow it's definitely the only snow you got.

but it looks good? Odd's are better than 50/50 for an accumulating snowfall to happen? right?

[Ginx snewx]

but it looks good? Odd's are better than 50/50 for an accumulating snowfall to happen? right?

Yep pretty much right now good odds, much better than the casino, LOL the only reason I am up is my son just came in from DC to surprise Mom for Christmas, love the holidays, we have 26 stockings up for the kids and Grandkids and four dogs .

[skierinvermont]

6z NAM trending to the GFS/Euro might not quite make it though

[Akeem the African Dream]

Yep pretty much right now good odds, much better than the casino, LOL the only reason I am up is my son just came in from DC to surprise Mom for Christmas, love the holidays, we have 26 stockings up for the kids and Grandkids and four dogs .

All good news. I am going to go and play at the Sands now and I am going to come back with more money than I left with and even better trends on the 06z model suite.

[Ginx snewx]

So Euro from what I read, 964 SW of BM pretty identical to 12 Z cept slower, Cape gets 1.5 Taunton Bob 1 Will. 25 BDL.1

[Ginx snewx]

6 Z NAM is coming further west than previous NAM runs, hr 66 looks Right but interesting hook pattern to precip field.

[skierinvermont]

Interesting it still manages to get qpf back to SNE even though the SL is well east.. sort of reassuring almost all the models give us at least something now

[Ginx snewx]

Interesting it still manages to get qpf back to SNE even though the SL is well east.. sort of reassuring almost all the models give us at least something now

Amazing it's not nearly as strong as globals, getting better every run, see this as 24 hour tool anyway .

[baroclinic_instability]

You NE guys look to be in a good spot. NAM has an awful height field orientation compared to the 0z GFS and it still ends up where it is. Can get a lot better than the 6Z NAM still.

[skierinvermont]

Incredibly deep trough modeled in terms of how far south it gets... 1993 and 1972 are the only two KUs I see that get the 540 line near FL that I can see. Stayed up this late.. might as well see the 6z GFS.

[nzucker]

Incredibly deep trough modeled in terms of how far south it gets... 1993 and 1972 are the only two KUs I see that get the 540 line near FL that I can see. Stayed up this late.. might as well see the 6z GFS.

What KU was there in 1972?

[skierinvermont]

What KU was there in 1972?

Feb 19th.. looks quite similar in evolution to this one except shift everything slightly west. There's also only a few KUs that got sub 516dm

6z GFS is looking quite good through 36. Slows SS down even more in the GOM.. heights higher along the EC.

[nzucker]

At 36 hours, the 6z GFS has higher heights on the East Coast than the 0z GFS at 42 hours...note how the 540dm contour moved from NYC at 0z to Poughkeepsie area at 6z:

0z GFS:

6z GFS:

[nzucker]

Feb 19th.. looks quite similar in evolution to this one except shift everything slightly west.

6z GFS is looking quite good through 36. Slows SS down even more in the GOM.. heights higher along the EC.

I think that was one of the storms that the suburbs of NYC did way better in than the City itself...I seem to remember Will describing 71-72 as a suburbs winter for NYC metro....Central Park was slightly below average on snowfall but Westchester did well. Who did the storm hit hardest though?

[skierinvermont]

I think that was one of the storms that the suburbs of NYC did way better in than the City itself...I seem to remember Will describing 71-72 as a suburbs winter for NYC metro....Central Park was slightly below average on snowfall but Westchester did well. Who did the storm hit hardest though?

north central PA jackpotted with 30".. 6" nyc 11" northern suburbs 13" POU .. 6" BOS 15" ORH... heavy snows 10"+ for most of PA, NY, VT, NH, ME, stripe of 20+ in PA and upstate NY