The Post Christmas storm threat is still vey real

[SnowGoose69]

I thought H5 was much improved on the 0z ECM and came in line with the GFS mostly, showing a much sharper trough with more northern stream involvement. It looks as if the trough starts to go negative in time to jerk the surface low a bit west, and I actually believe the SLP would be 50 miles or so closer to the Mid-Atlantic coastline than what the Euro prints out verbatim. I thought this solution was a serious improvement and pretty much guarantees the eastern parts of SNE a moderate snowfall.

I doubt NYC would only get 1-2" with this track....we've got a bombing 989mb low just east of the benchmark. I tend to think models generally expand QPF fields as we approach a snowstorm while simultaneously reducing extreme QPF jackpots. I also think the H5 depiction suggests a surface low a bit west of what the ECM shows, which would mean more like 3-6" for NYC metro, with potential for warning criteria snowfall on Long Island. If the H5 trough were to go negative more quickly, we'd have a decent shot at a blizzard here given the explosion of the low into the 960s causing strong winds and the potential for powdery, high-ratio snow that can drift around and wreak havoc on travel. I think the NWS will be particularly bullish on issuing watches/warnings due to the fact it's one of the busiest travel periods of the year.

The reason NYC only sees 1-2 is because the system approaches from an angle offshore as opposed to a normal typical SW-NE path...the semi left hook the storm takes from 48-72 results in the storm taking a heading of maybe 340-360 for a time....thats the reason even though it appears to be near the benchmark the end result is worse than your normal just east of the BM track.

[skierinvermont]

I thought H5 was much improved on the 0z ECM and came in line with the GFS mostly, showing a much sharper trough with more northern stream involvement. It looks as if the trough starts to go negative in time to jerk the surface low a bit west, and I actually believe the SLP would be 50 miles or so closer to the Mid-Atlantic coastline than what the Euro prints out verbatim. I thought this solution was a serious improvement and pretty much guarantees the eastern parts of SNE a moderate snowfall.

I doubt NYC would only get 1-2" with this track....we've got a bombing 989mb low just east of the benchmark. I tend to think models generally expand QPF fields as we approach a snowstorm while simultaneously reducing extreme QPF jackpots. I also think the H5 depiction suggests a surface low a bit west of what the ECM shows, which would mean more like 3-6" for NYC metro, with potential for warning criteria snowfall on Long Island. If the H5 trough were to go negative more quickly, we'd have a decent shot at a blizzard here given the explosion of the low into the 960s causing strong winds and the potential for powdery, high-ratio snow that can drift around and wreak havoc on travel. I think the NWS will be particularly bullish on issuing watches/warnings due to the fact it's one of the busiest travel periods of the year.

weenie post

There are good reasons at H5 why the surface low is escaping east. It matches up as one would expect. H5 is far inferior to the extreme 00z gfs. I had this discussion with Ryan the other day and he agreed the whole argument that "the surface low would be farther west given H5" is complete weenie nonsense. Models don't have major discrepancies between H5 and the surface.. that would be a major problem in model physics and they would not even be able to get a 6hr forecast correct if they couldn't even properly generate surface lows relative to the upper level features.

Anyways, none of this matters because " the ridge axis is too far east for a SNE snowstorm. It will probably just trend east of the 12z runs.."

No matter what happens though I'm sure it will be a great success for your thoughts though, so here is a preemptive congratulations

[weatherwiz]

I thought H5 was much improved on the 0z ECM and came in line with the GFS mostly, showing a much sharper trough with more northern stream involvement. It looks as if the trough starts to go negative in time to jerk the surface low a bit west, and I actually believe the SLP would be 50 miles or so closer to the Mid-Atlantic coastline than what the Euro prints out verbatim. I thought this solution was a serious improvement and pretty much guarantees the eastern parts of SNE a moderate snowfall.

It did come more in line with the GFS? Interesting. When the trough starts to go negatively tilted as well will also have huge implications as to where the sfc low tracks, I would like to to start doing so around GA or so.

As of right now though I think I'll take the more conservative side of things for CT at least, until we see something that screams otherwise this will probably have a much more chance of verifying than going towards a moderate or even significant snowfall.

I agree about eastern parts looking very good for a mod snowfall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

weenie post

There are good reasons at H5 why the surface low is escaping east. It matches up as one would expect. I had this discussion with Ryan the other day and he agreed the whole argument that "the surface low would be farther west given H5" is complete weenie nonsense. Models don't have major discrepancies between H5 and the surface.. that would be a major problem in model physics and they would not even be able to get a 6hr forecast correct if they couldn't even properly generate surface lows relative to the upper level features.

Why won't his socks escape east

[weatherwiz]

Well I am finally off to bed...42 HR's is long enough lol. Another fun day of model watching ahead

[nzucker]

There are good reasons at H5 why the surface low is escaping east. It matches up as one would expect. I had this discussion with Ryan the other day and he agreed the whole argument that "the surface low would be farther west given H5" is complete weenie nonsense. Models don't have major discrepancies between H5 and the surface.. that would be a major problem in model physics and they would not even be able to get a 6hr forecast correct if they couldn't even properly generate surface lows relative to the upper level features.

Here is Day 3 on the ECM...you can clearly see that the H5 trough has closed off at 526dm and is starting to acquire a negative tilt with the vorticity wrapping back towards NYC. H5 winds are fairly south to north with strong ridging developing ahead of the storm, so the solution should be farther west than what the ECM shows. The 0z GFS is about 50 miles further west at 72, with the surface low being inside the longitude of Cape Cod instead of outside of it. Also, the QPF field seems a bit paltry on the GFS with a 989mb low over the benchmark, should probably be like .25" QPF for NYC, not .1" as the 0z ECM shows. This 500mb map looks pretty good to me:

It's not complete nonsense to forecast using H5 depictions and ignore what the model says about the surface verbatim. Models are much better at predicting the upper atmosphere than the surface where we live; for example, GFS 850mb temperatures tend to be more accurate than the 2m temperatures. I believe it is similar with the SLP; sometimes the models have a good grasp of the flow of the jet stream but just misplace the surface low for whatever reason, whether it's a misunderstanding of climatology for following a baroclinic zone naturally aligned with the coast, or just a well-known bias like the GFS consistently being SE despite showing a favorable 500mb set-up. And I am not talking about a big adjustment for this system: I think the ECM should be about 50 miles farther west, which is not a large shift for 3 days out in terms of model error but makes a huge impact when you have an explosive, tightly wound low. It just seems you are always trying to argue with me about everything I post...enough is enough, we both have our own forecasting philosophies and there is nothing wrong with that.

[skierinvermont]

H5 is inferior to GFS clearly... everything is east at H5.. the surface is 50 miles east. Makes perfect sense. The surface low is right where you'd expect given H5.. learn to read upper air charts. This has nothing to do with "forecasting philosophies" or other such nonsense

Anyways.. "it doesn't matter the ridge axis is too far east for SNE snowstorm, it will be east of the 12z runs."

[nzucker]

H5 is inferior to GFS clearly... everything is east at H5.. the surface is 50 miles east. Makes perfect sense. The surface low is right where you'd expect given H5.. learn to read upper air charts.

Dude stop being so arrogant, you always try to prove you are better at meteorology than I in front of everyone in the forum; it is an attempt to embarrass me but actually ends up embarrassing you as basically everyone thinks you are way too conceited for your own good on here. I know how to read an H5 chart, and I think the ECM should be a bit farther west than it is. I also think the QPF should be more expansive giving you and me a significant snowfall with this depiction. It's well-known that the ECM sucks on QPF in the moderate range and tends to be stingy; I tend to use the GFS QPF in this time range because it seems to have a better handle on the expansiveness of the precip fields in a large system with a well-defined CCB. Many meteorologists would agree with this, that the ECM is not a good model for QPF in East Coast storms.

I agree that the ECM H5 is not quite there compared to the GFS but still looks good to my eye. You can see that the 500mb chart and surface chart are disjointed on the freebie maps...the low is closing off over land but the surface low has already drifted like 300 miles east of NYC, unrealistic IF this 5H verifies:

Also, Andrew, I want to be treated with respect. You are free to disagree with me, but we are best friends and I don't think you should constantly be trying to prove my inferiority at meteorology. We can have a good discussion about this models without you saying "you can't read 5H" even though I've probably spent more time on studying this than you. There's a way to disagree and your way is not the right one. I could even hear on the phone today your disregard for my opinion even though I've generally been pretty accurate in forecasting for an amateur, especially on the bigger systems. You never put a forecast out or voice a real opinion, therefore you shouldn't be entitled to just constantly criticize since you never put yourself on line at all, dude.

[skierinvermont]

I give up. This has nothing to do with "proving you inferior." Lighten up and learn to have someone disagree with you without crying over it. The surface low is right where you'd expect given H5. H5 is east of the GFS.. so is the surface low. Go argue with a meteorologist about this.

I'm not conceited.. I know virtually nothing about this. That's why I don't claim to have a "forecasting philosophy." I'm not a forecaster.

[SnowGoose69]

This pattern at 240 hours on tonight's Euro is going to work out much better in the long run during a La Nina than the one we're in now....

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

[H2Otown_WX]

This pattern at 240 hours on tonight's Euro is going to work out much better in the long run during a La Nina than the one we're in now....

http://www.meteo.psu.../ecmwfloop.html

Is that a more traditional gradient type pattern SnowGoose?

[SnowGoose69]

Is that a more traditional gradient type pattern SnowGoose?

Its very 93-94 like conducive to overrunning.

[H2Otown_WX]

Its very 93-94 like conducive to overrunning.

Ah...music to my ears. Now to just have that depiction hold for the next 10 days.

[nzucker]

I give up. This has nothing to do with "proving you inferior." Lighten up and learn to have someone disagree with you without crying over it. The surface low is right where you'd expect given H5. H5 is east of the GFS.. so is the surface low. Go argue with a meteorologist about this.

I'm not conceited.. I know virtually nothing about this. That's why I don't claim to have a "forecasting philosophy." I'm not a forecaster.

Dude, you are being totally insulting and you just laugh about it. F*ck you.

"Learn how to read an upper air chart." That is just so demeaning and disgusting, I can't believe you would say that to me after all the time we've spent analyzing 500mb together. It is totally conceited, implying you have this superior understanding that I don't possess. Dude, most people on Eastern hated you for the same reason. I am not an expert at H5 maps but we are basically on equal footing, so don't use that language with me.

And you constantly try to prove me wrong on the forum, whether it's about NYC temperatures, Cape Cod snowfall, climate change, etc. You just search out posts to bash while never offering your own forecast that can be subject to verification. If you want to criticize someone else's forecast/predictions, put out your own forecast instead of just mocking me uselessly. It is pathetic dude.

[skierinvermont]

Dude, you are being totally insulting and you just laugh about it. F*ck you.

"Learn how to read an upper air chart." That is just so demeaning and disgusting, I can't believe you would say that to me after all the time we've spent analyzing 500mb together. It is totally conceited, implying you have this superior understanding that I don't possess. Dude, most people on Eastern hated you for the same reason. I am not an expert at H5 maps but we are basically on equal footing, so don't use that language with me.

And you constantly try to prove me wrong on the forum, whether it's about NYC temperatures, Cape Cod snowfall, climate change, etc. You just search out posts to bash while never offering your own forecast that can be subject to verification. If you want to criticize someone else's forecast/predictions, put out your own forecast instead of just mocking me uselessly. It is pathetic dude.

Ouch. Someone's having a meltdown. If you stopped thinking of forecasting as a competition that might help. I don't forecast things I don't know much about. You came into the SNE thread.. posted a weenie comment about the surface not matching H5 and I responded. Deal with it.

[nzucker]

Ouch.

You deserve it. The way you debate is inappropriate; you constantly mock others' opinions if they don't match yours. I present my opinions honestly and respectfully on these forums. And I am your best friend...what gives with this constant "oneupsmanship"? Why do you feel the need to argue constantly with me in such a pejorative, aggressive manner, as if you need to be better than I?

Just chill dude. I don't mind your disagreement about 500mb maps but you don't need to call me an idiot and a crappy forecaster. It is a silly thing to have an argument about, whether the ECM's surface low should be 50 miles west or not. It won't matter anyway as the weather determines the weather not the ECM model.

Besides, people get way too upset about the weather on this forum. It's the weather folks, it's going to do what it wants regardless of what you forecast, what the models show, how much you argue a point, etc. We should just enjoy what Mother Nature provides us instead of getting overly obsessed with it...we are lucky to have such a beautiful atmosphere and live in an area with four dramatic, stunningly gorgeous seasons. I am getting sick of all the drama on this forum about nothing. No wonder everyone else thinks we're crazy, we are.

[skierinvermont]

You deserve it. The way you debate is inappropriate; you constantly mock others' opinions if they don't match yours. I present my opinions honestly and respectfully on these forums. And I am your best friend...what gives with this constant "oneupsmanship"? Why do you feel the need to argue constantly with me in such a pejorative, aggressive manner, as if you need to be better than I?

Just chill dude. I don't mind your disagreement about 500mb maps but you don't need to call me an idiot and a crappy forecaster. It is a silly thing to have an argument about, whether the ECM's surface low should be 50 miles west or not. It won't matter anyway as the weather determines the weather not the ECM model.

Besides, people get way too upset about the weather on this forum. It's the weather folks, it's going to do what it wants regardless of what you forecast, what the models show, how much you argue a point, etc. We should just enjoy what Mother Nature provides us instead of getting overly obsessed with it...we are lucky to have such a beautiful atmosphere and live in an area with four dramatic, stunningly gorgeous seasons. I am getting sick of all the drama on this forum about nothing. No wonder everyone else thinks we're crazy, we are.

You came in here posted a weenie comment about the surface not matching H5. I responded that it does match and I think you took my comments too seriously. it's all in your head.. nobody is trying to "oneup" you. I'm just saying in some colorful language H5 matches the surface. If you didn't take this quite so seriously you wouldn't be so offended and derail the thread

[Akeem the African Dream]

ok, I have been out drinking and am checking the snow potential before going to casino. Can someone give me the condensed version of where we stand for coastal CT? I hear trends have been good in our favor.

Help a Florida weenie out!!!

[nzucker]

Ouch. Someone's having a meltdown. If you stopped thinking of forecasting as a competition that might help. I don't forecast things I don't know much about. You came into the SNE thread.. posted a weenie comment about the surface not matching H5 and I responded. Deal with it.

I don't think of it as a competition; that's complete projection. I just said I thought the surface low should be farther west given the improvements shown by the models tonight at 500mb, which would be beneficial to many people living in western parts of SNE and back towards NYC. What is wrong with that? What is competitive about this basic analysis? Why do you need to be so upset about my posting a simple comment about the evolution of the system? If you think it's incorrect, you can just say it nicely, not "Learn how to read H5 charts" which sounds totally arrogant and disgusting. Do you understand what is wrong with the way you say things? Do you agree this isn't the friendliest way to word this debate/disagreement?

And I am not a weenie dude...I went with 19" of snow for NYC which is well below average, for the area I live in. I don't forecast snowfalls that aren't going to happen. I am not a Ji or anything like that. I am a realist and I understand my climatology and what a strong La Niña does to this. In fact, I'd say I've been among the biggest Debbie Downers this winter in terms of saying the pattern looks mediocre and that SNE/NYC metro aren't going to see a lot of significant snowstorms. How is that being a weenie?

[H2Otown_WX]

ok, I have been out drinking and am checking the snow potential before going to casino. Can someone give me the condensed version of where we stand for coastal CT? I hear trends have been good in our favor.

Help a Florida weenie out!!!

Depends on your longitude...are you in SE CT?

[skierinvermont]

I don't think of it as a competition; that's complete projection. I just said I thought the surface low should be farther west given the improvements shown by the models tonight at 500mb, which would be beneficial to many people living in western parts of SNE and back towards NYC. What is wrong with that? What is competitive about this basic analysis? Why do you need to be so upset about my posting a simple comment about the evolution of the system? If you think it's incorrect, you can just say it nicely, not "Learn how to read H5 charts" which sounds totally arrogant and disgusting. Do you understand what is wrong with the way you say things? Do you agree this isn't the friendliest way to word this debate/disagreement?

And I am not a weenie dude...I went with 19" of snow for NYC which is well below average, for the area I live in. I don't forecast snowfalls that aren't going to happen. I am not a Ji or anything like that. I am a realist and I understand my climatology and what a strong La Niña does to this. In fact, I'd say I've been among the biggest Debbie Downers this winter in terms of saying the pattern looks mediocre and that SNE/NYC metro aren't going to see a lot of significant snowstorms. How is that being a weenie?

I think there are worse insults about every 5 minutes on here.. not being able to read an H5 chart is not the worst thing in the world. If you didn't take things so seriously perhaps you wouldn't be so offended and derail the thread

[Akeem the African Dream]

Depends on your longitude...are you in SE CT?

Will be in Coastal New London. Whats the timing looking like for onset of precip?

[H2Otown_WX]

Will be in Coastal New London. Whats the timing looking like for onset of precip?

Tough to say for sure...going by the latest GFS (since I can't see the Euro) you'd see snow break out in the late afternoon to early evening hours on Sunday.

[skierinvermont]

Will be in Coastal New London. Whats the timing looking like for onset of precip?

That's where I live.. which one are you going to?

[SnowGoose69]

Will be in Coastal New London. Whats the timing looking like for onset of precip?

I'd go with something like 2-4 for that area now but I'm probably being conservative to what most people would say...start time probably Sunday 1pm-4pm.

[Akeem the African Dream]

I'd go with something like 2-4 for that area now but I'm probably being conservative to what most people would say...start time probably Sunday 1pm-4pm.

This is all good news.

I will be in Old Lyme.

I need this storm. It does not snow in Orlando. I am all in on this one.

I am going to the casino to gamble. If I was to gamble on an accumlating snowfall for the area would you feel comfortable making the bet? Even Advisory criteria would cause me to blow a load.

[Ginx snewx]

I think there are worse insults about every 5 minutes on here. If you didn't take things so seriously perhaps you wouldn't be so offended

And so this is Christmas' A very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year let's hope it's a good one without any fear.......

Great GFS run and a good Euro run. Slower and still cranking deep,expect QPF to expand, stand by my original call.

[Akeem the African Dream]

Tough to say for sure...going by the latest GFS (since I can't see the Euro) you'd see snow break out in the late afternoon to early evening hours on Sunday.

Not asking for definites. Like in the tropics where most of my interest lies the trend is our friend.

I need an earlier onset to have hope of my flight being cancelled so I can ride this one out with you guys.

[skierinvermont]

And so this is Christmas' A very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year let's hope it's a good one without any fear.......

Great GFS run and a good Euro run. Slower and still cranking deep,expect QPF to expand, stand by my original call.

I must have missed it ginx what was your call for our area?

[Ginx snewx]

This is all good news.

I will be in Old Lyme.

I need this storm. It does not snow in Orlando. I am all in on this one.

I am going to the casino to gamble. If I was to gamble on an accumlating snowfall for the area would you feel comfortable making the bet? Even Advisory criteria would cause me to blow a load.

Oh you will blow your load at the casino as far as snow goes. SE CT 4-7 looks good with ferocious winds all subject to Change which you will have none of. Enjoy