The Post Christmas storm threat is still vey real

[weatherwiz]

Paul? Giving up? What?

It's really hard to not go against the GFS/Euro/ens...some sort of solution in the middle of these is probably the best way to go...this certainly is much more favorable for eastern sections than it is you and I. It's also becoming apparent that this will have a fairly sharp QPF gradient so unless we actually saw a track just like the 0z GFS I just don't feel all that great for us, I was really hoping to see the Euro be somewhat similar to the GFS.

I can sit and for the next few days and look at all the positive trends and little pieces that look positive but overall for us to see a westward shift were going to need to see sharper digging of the trough and virtually perfect timing phase wise, the position of the ridge/trough axis still worries me some.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Phineas.

As long as they've stopped comparing it to 1/25/00 I'm happy.

They did get screwed down that way though. In one swoop the storm timing changed and it was gone. Not even a tease down, from blizzard to utoh.

Well, looks good. 5-10 Boston to Providence to be safe, 6-12 SE MA including you and cape cod. Sharp cutoff to the serious snows as the 5h slides under. Conservative but plenty of time to go and for things to go one way or the other.

[weathafella]

This run gives me a little less qpf than 12z and less than half the GFS.....like .35".

Verbatim, it blows.

How can you see it that easily? I thought the 0.5 line was like 495 belt..

[40/70 Benchmark]

In the old days we'd make the excuse that Euro is a medium range model and shouldn't be used. But now we know better. Given GEFS and the Euro, this may well be very close to the solution we see.

Unfortuately, I agree.

Lower end of my range.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Between 0.75 and 1.

Not far off from the 00z GFS than for me. I has 1.12" on that so I fell pretty confident right now.

[snowNH]

This run gives me a little less qpf than 12z and less than half the GFS.....like .35".

Verbatim, it blows.

I agree.. I think we needed a coastal hugger.. because anymore east and were looking at cloudy with a chance of flurries.. fully expect shifts east tomorrow from gfs

[Bostonseminole]

In the old days we'd make the excuse that Euro is a medium range model and shouldn't be used. But now we know better. Given GEFS and the Euro, this may well be very close to the solution we see.

nooooooooooooooooooooo..................................................

[Clinch Leatherwood]

In the old days we'd make the excuse that Euro is a medium range model and shouldn't be used. But now we know better. Given GEFS and the Euro, this may well be very close to the solution we see.

How close is the track to the BM?

[weatherwiz]

I agree.. I think we needed a coastal hugger.. because anymore east and were looking at cloudy with a chance of flurries.. fully expect shifts east tomorrow from gfs

Big change from your thinking of the westward trend is not close to being done.

[40/70 Benchmark]

How can you see it that easily? I thought the 0.5 line was like 495 belt..

Dunno....I'm 30 and you're 65....lol

[Bostonseminole]

Dunn....I'm 30 and you're 65....lol

[H2Otown_WX]

It's really hard to not go against the GFS/Euro/ens...some sort of solution in the middle of these is probably the best way to go...this certainly is much more favorable for eastern sections than it is you and I. It's also becoming apparent that this will have a fairly sharp QPF gradient so unless we actually saw a track just like the 0z GFS I just don't feel all that great for us, I was really hoping to see the Euro be somewhat similar to the GFS.

I can sit and for the next few days and look at all the positive trends and little pieces that look positive but overall for us to see a westward shift were going to need to see sharper digging of the trough and virtually perfect timing phase wise, the position of the ridge/trough axis still worries me some.

There were definitely good trends at h5. That's about all you can say for this run. We still have a little time left..I know I was stupid and threw the towel in early but right now I still feel like we have a shot at a plowable snowstorm and that's really all one in our situation can ask for...totally screwed last winter and obviously jack squat this winter so even 1-3" at this point would be okay.

[weathafella]

12/26/04. Nothing more, nothing less. OES to start, synoptic snow to finish, a nice deep snow cover, then a warmup.

[weathafella]

Dunno....I'm 30 and you're 65....lol

Damn...I should have realized...

[H2Otown_WX]

12/26/04. Nothing more, nothing less. OES to start, synoptic snow to finish, a nice deep snow cover, then a warmup.

I got...3" from that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd give my left nut to shift this west by 75 miles, but it's likely locked on now.

Night.

[weatherwiz]

There were definitely good trends at h5. That's about all you can say for this run. We still have a little time left..I know I was stupid and threw the towel in early but right now I still feel like we have a shot at a plowable snowstorm and that's really all one in our situation can ask for...totally screwed last winter and obviously jack squat this winter so even 1-3" at this point would be okay.

We need to see alot more than just good trends IMO. You can see even with what looks to be a better look at H5 doesn't quite produce the same results at the sfc. I could certainly see some minor accumulations possible for parts of the state but as far as a mod event for CT I think the chances have drastically changed.

It is still Thursday night so I'll keep a sliver of hope alive but if we don't see any sort of drastic changes on 12z I'll throw my towel out towards the Cape.

[weathafella]

Bedtime. Disappointingly paltry but I'm ok with it. The issue is the low is too far east and hopefully it will come a degree or 2 west in the next few days. Not an unreasonable expectation but we'll see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

We need to see alot more than just good trends IMO. You can see even with what looks to be a better look at H5 doesn't quite produce the same results at the sfc. I could certainly see some minor accumulations possible for parts of the state but as far as a mod event for CT I think the chances have drastically changed.

It is still Thursday night so I'll keep a sliver of hope alive but if we don't see any sort of drastic changes on 12z I'll throw my towel out towards the Cape.

I hadn't noticed.

[weatherwiz]

Going to grab some food then get some sleep finally...aiming to wake up around 7 AM but wouldn't be surprised if I'm locked in bed until tomorrow evening

[bch2014]

Where can I find the euro qpf maps?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Where can I find the euro qpf maps?

In your wallet.....$$

[H2Otown_WX]

We need to see alot more than just good trends IMO. You can see even with what looks to be a better look at H5 doesn't quite produce the same results at the sfc. I could certainly see some minor accumulations possible for parts of the state but as far as a mod event for CT I think the chances have drastically changed.

It is still Thursday night so I'll keep a sliver of hope alive but if we don't see any sort of drastic changes on 12z I'll throw my towel out towards the Cape.

Yeah agreed...but the Euro ain't king either it hasn't been very steadfast. We'll see what 06z and 12z have to say. I see this is being compared to 12/26/04 I got 3" and BDL got 3". I know it isn't even close to what this could have been but hey..perfect phases don't always work out. We've seen it once already this winter last week.

[40/70 Benchmark]

What I do like is that I'm likely near the nw edge of the meaningful precip shield, which will often be where some of the most tenacious CSI bands will set up.

Nowcast issues.

[H2Otown_WX]

What I do like is that I'm likely near the nw edge of the meaningful precip shield, which will often be where some of the most tenacious CSI bands will set up.

Nowcast issues.

Good thing you didn't listen to me about changing your prelim. call.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Good thing you didn't listen to me about changing your prelim. call.

I told you that I wouldn't unless 00z yesterday held steady; as it turned out, the run before it blinked.

[weatherwiz]

Yeah agreed...but the Euro ain't king either it hasn't been very steadfast. We'll see what 06z and 12z have to say. I see this is being compared to 12/26/04 I got 3" and BDL got 3". I know it isn't even close to what this could have been but hey..perfect phases don't always work out. We've seen it once already this winter last week.

You're right in that perfect phases don't always work out but that's when you really have to depend on synoptics more. If we do see a perfect phase well then it's game on but 9/10 you're not going to get the perfect phase. The trough axis is just too far east so everything gets going just too far east and I think this is what will really hurt us here in CT. Once a phase does occur though it will be just in time to save the day for the Cape IMO.

[nzucker]

It's really hard to not go against the GFS/Euro/ens...some sort of solution in the middle of these is probably the best way to go...this certainly is much more favorable for eastern sections than it is you and I. It's also becoming apparent that this will have a fairly sharp QPF gradient so unless we actually saw a track just like the 0z GFS I just don't feel all that great for us, I was really hoping to see the Euro be somewhat similar to the GFS.

I can sit and for the next few days and look at all the positive trends and little pieces that look positive but overall for us to see a westward shift were going to need to see sharper digging of the trough and virtually perfect timing phase wise, the position of the ridge/trough axis still worries me some.

I thought H5 was much improved on the 0z ECM and came in line with the GFS mostly, showing a much sharper trough with more northern stream involvement. It looks as if the trough starts to go negative in time to jerk the surface low a bit west, and I actually believe the SLP would be 50 miles or so closer to the Mid-Atlantic coastline than what the Euro prints out verbatim. I thought this solution was a serious improvement and pretty much guarantees the eastern parts of SNE a moderate snowfall.

Man....NYC is an inch or 2 if lucky this run. I think it's a little paltry to the west on qpf.

I doubt NYC would only get 1-2" with this track....we've got a bombing 989mb low just east of the benchmark. I tend to think models generally expand QPF fields as we approach a snowstorm while simultaneously reducing extreme QPF jackpots. I also think the H5 depiction suggests a surface low a bit west of what the ECM shows, which would mean more like 3-6" for NYC metro, with potential for warning criteria snowfall on Long Island. If the H5 trough were to go negative more quickly, we'd have a decent shot at a blizzard here given the explosion of the low into the 960s causing strong winds and the potential for powdery, high-ratio snow that can drift around and wreak havoc on travel. I think the NWS will be particularly bullish on issuing watches/warnings due to the fact it's one of the busiest travel periods of the year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Get some sleep, guys.....I'll be wkn tmw, so merry xmas to all of you....even the EURO verbatim would be an absolute thrill to nowcast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I thought H5 was much improved on the 0z ECM and came in line with the GFS mostly, showing a much sharper trough with more northern stream involvement. It looks as if the trough starts to go negative in time to jerk the surface low a bit west, and I actually believe the SLP would be 50 miles or so closer to the Mid-Atlantic coastline than what the Euro prints out verbatim. I thought this solution was a serious improvement and pretty much guarantees the eastern parts of SNE a moderate snowfall.

I doubt NYC would only get 1-2" with this track....we've got a bombing 989mb low just east of the benchmark. I tend to think models generally expand QPF fields as we approach a snowstorm while simultaneously reducing extreme QPF jackpots. I also think the H5 depiction suggests a surface low a bit west of what the ECM shows, which would mean more like 3-6" for NYC metro, with potential for warning criteria snowfall on Long Island. If the H5 trough were to go negative more quickly, we'd have a decent shot at a blizzard here given the explosion of the low into the 960s causing strong winds and the potential for powdery, high-ratio snow that can drift around and wreak havoc on travel. I think the NWS will be particularly bullish on issuing watches/warnings due to the fact it's one of the busiest travel periods of the year.