Logan11 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Just in general this whole pattern has been garbage for 90% of the east coast. All along it has been obvious that the trough axis was a little east of optimum. We need a Euro type bomb to put us in the game because things start off so far south/east. But I wouldn't waste much breath on a 72-84 hour NAM when the GFS will be out in 30 minutes. Yeah... it's also so much further east with the trough axis and where it drops down the PV that I'm concerned. I've always thought that would be a potential issue with this... the flow would remain too flat down south and we'd have a hard time getting it north fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm more concerned about the thread's title than about the NAM lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Exactly. Remember last week at about this time, it was the 18z NAM that first showed the last big threat as a whiff. That came right on the heels of two euphoria-inducing Euro runs, so everyone just short of shrugged it off. But in retrospect it was the beginning of the end. Wasn't last night's NAM a big shift west, though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I don't care if it's the KMA....having any piece of guidance trendin in this manner so close in is bad news. I would like to see the GFS/Euro sort of trend this way when their runs come out to really start seeing this as a concern. Still at a crazy hour for the NAM and just look how different it was than the 0z NAM...the NAM has been all over. At least the GFS/Euro/ens have been on the consistent side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Just in general this whole pattern has been garbage for 90% of the east coast. All along it has been obvious that the trough axis was a little east of optimum. We need a Euro type bomb to put us in the game because things start off so far south/east. But I wouldn't waste much breath on a 72-84 hour NAM when the GFS will be out in 30 minutes. Yup, agreed Rick. The trough axis has been a thorn in this one's side. It's also taken the far west ptype problem off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 12 hr NAM isn't really any different from the 06hr.... both were showing a miss. The thing that concerns me is the latest run wasa bit faster and slightly farther east. If the GFS is quicker too we'll probably see it east as well. That's not a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It was a big player in the outcome of last night's Euro and the 06z GFS yes it was it was plain to see even on the crappy euro maps even an amateur like myself could see it the way you explained it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wokeupthisam Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I don't care if it's the KMA....having any piece of guidance trendin in this manner so close in is bad news. Thurs am for an event scheduled sunday night/monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 man....board is struggling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Thurs am for an event scheduled sunday night/monday? Well, when would you like to take trends seriously, day 1....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 man....board is struggling I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The NAM at 42 hours doesn't look bad How the tables turn, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If only we could see an earlier closed look at 500mb...this run we don't start seeing it until the 84th HR and it starts to do so over NJ, if that can happen earlier and further SW that would really help with digging that trough a bit more and a bit further west. While this run doesn't look great I think it's relatively close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Just announced to the office it's all over. Half groans, half cheers. I'm heading for my gun safe. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Alright, the suicide posts are getting pretty ridiculous. It's one run of the NAM. It's bad, yes, but the last couple pages look like something we'd see on the main page *gasp* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wokeupthisam Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well, when would you like to take trends seriously, day 1....lol In this pattern, that might not be such a wacky idea. Seriously, I'll raise an eyebrow to the NAM at this range and wait to see what the GFS and EC do in their next run before both eyebrows go up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Alright, the suicide posts are getting pretty ridiculous. It's one run of the NAM. It's bad, yes, but the last couple pages look like something we'd see on the main page *gasp* as long as the disco is just an analysis of the run and not the weenie implications it's fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 "One positive trend from my marriage: The wife has lost 50 lbs but she slept with the neighbor and divorced me". Just trying to take an objective look at the run. Just because it's a whiff, doesn't mean everything is bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 In this pattern, that might not be such a wacky idea. Seriously, I'll raise an eyebrow to the NAM at this range and wait to see what the GFS and EC do in their next run before both eyebrows go up I'll raise an eyebrow, but can easily urinate on it as well. Lots of variables, but unfortunately people get sucked in when they see 2-3' of snow modeled at 5-6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 In this pattern, that might not be such a wacky idea. Seriously, I'll raise an eyebrow to the NAM at this range and wait to see what the GFS and EC do in their next run before both eyebrows go up Obviously dismiss it if the EURO and GFS hold serve, but I'd like to see it start coming around soon, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Alright, the suicide posts are getting pretty ridiculous. It's one run of the NAM. It's bad, yes, but the last couple pages look like something we'd see on the main page *gasp* Yes, agreed. If this is what is really going on in the thread on the main side than something needs to be done b/c it's just causing more issues for the server. Not sure why people have to live and dry with every single panel and every single model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It's but one model. To think it's decided is as foolish as believing the Ec lock stock and barrel. The ggem and ukie have been misses the gfs a hit, let's see what all three do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Alright, the suicide posts are getting pretty ridiculous. It's one run of the NAM. It's bad, yes, but the last couple pages look like something we'd see on the main page *gasp* Yeah i know. I've contemplated posting the CPC 8-14 day temp maps just to push the edge dwellers over and clear some space on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RICoastalMan Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Only those who have no measurable snowfall so far this season can threaten suicide............hard to believe the ground is still going to be green through next week too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'll raise an eyebrow, but can easily urinate on it as well. Lots of variables, but unfortunately people get sucked in when they see 2-3' of snow modeled at 5-6 days out. I agree Scott. and considering many of the past couple of years of events haven't really been "decided" until 72 hours or even less before onset its sort of crazy for this to occur to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah i know. I've contemplated posting the CPC 8-14 day temp maps just to push the edge dwellers over and clear some space on the board. That beats cold and dry. This week has been nice, but before this blew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Alright, the suicide posts are getting pretty ridiculous. It's one run of the NAM. It's bad, yes, but the last couple pages look like something we'd see on the main page *gasp* Thank you! I said that a couple pages ago, too. It sucked in some of the best. Sanity to be restored momentarily by the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If the 12z Euro/GFS and the ensembles continue to hold serve or be similar to what they've been showing than I will be very happy and continue to feel good about the potential despite what we saw from the NAM today and despite what the Ukie is showing...I'd feel good with continued consistency from the Euro/GFS over something like the Ukie/NAM where you've had some inconsistencies on the Ukie and just the NAM being awful at this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I agree Scott. and considering many of the past couple of years of events haven't really been "decided" until 72 hours or even less before onset its sort of crazy for this to occur to begin with. When the TANDY started printing some ugly looking FOUS numbers I was worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Thank you! I said that a couple pages ago, too. It sucked in some of the best. Sanity to be restored momentarily by the GFS. I hope the GFS shows a hit if only to get the pearl-clutchers to stand down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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