The Post Christmas storm threat is still vey real

[weatherwiz]

There's no way I'm staying up for the Euro...in fact I suggest you all get good night sleeps so you can have merry Christmas Eves and look at the good news in the morning. Best of both worlds.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Well, well would you look at that,

GFS hits it home for me. I need confirmation from the Euro but this has been a pleasant trend since 12z. Looks like we are back to 06z yesterday.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

You can see the shift in the GFS Ensembles in the last 12 hours, they've gone east it appears.

New:

and the old one from 12z

[Clinch Leatherwood]

One more map posted on the other thread, the 21z SREF tracks.

Not commenting one way or the other, figured this will provide us with a reference years from now.

[SC48]

Those means don't make any sense. the GFS would not have taken that drastic of a step if those means are that far east. it almost looks like what the GFs had a 6Z or 12z thursday.

[weathafella]

Those means don't make any sense. the GFS would not have taken that drastic of a step if those means are that far east. it almost looks like what the GFs had a 6Z or 12z thursday.

If you look at qpf means on higher res maps, you can see tugging of totals westward indicating some serious spread...continues to be a work in progress.

[dendrite]

Those means don't make any sense. the GFS would not have taken that drastic of a step if those means are that far east. it almost looks like what the GFs had a 6Z or 12z thursday.

The operational GFS can do whatever it wants.

Keep in mind the GEFS are run at a much lower resolution than the operational models. I'd wait for the EC/EC ens before believing the op GFS.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I get several texts telling me there was a 968 over the BM, yet nothing has changed...only in 2010.

[weathafella]

I get several texts telling me there was a 968 over the BM, yet nothing has changed...only in 2010.

GFS MOS has you 8+ (BED).

[Baroclinic Zone]

For those who are interested, here's the forecast qpf for the last three runs of the GFS:

Right now, I'm cautiously optimistic that the westward trend that commenced on the 18z GFS may be a real trend. It was confirmed, at least to some extent, by the 0z NAM's slight improvement over its 18z run and now the 0z GFS. It will be interesting to see the ensembles and the other models (GGEM, UKMET, and ECMWF) that will run over the next few hours.

I get several texts telling me there was a 968 over the BM, yet nothing has changed...only in 2010.

GFS MOS has you 8+ (BED).

I think Don S post should shed some light on what the GFS has been doing the past 3 runs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

GFS MOS has you 8+ (BED).

Cool.

I'm gonna remain at 3-8" pending the EURO.....this is still on the extreme side of everything.

[ROOSTA]

GFS MOS has you 8+ (BED).

That puts me at 10" and you at 1'

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think Don S post should shed some light on what the GFS has been doing the past 3 runs.

Thx, Bob....I should have thoroughly investigated things before rattling off....had a few lol

[weathafella]

That puts me at 10" and you at 1'

Well 8 is the highest # they use for snow...it means 8+. And ironically you may be among the maxes on your hill and other hilly close in to the coast areas.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Thx, Bob....I should have thoroughly investigated things before rattling off....had a few lol

Just waiting for the Euro for agreement here and we may be back onto a pretty good event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well 8 is the highest # they use for snow...it means 8+. And ironically you may be among the maxes on your hill and other hilly close in to the coast areas.

I'd be weary of getting too amped up; the GFS is still on the extreme end of the envelope and may converge toward other guidance to a degree, in future runs.

EURO is huge.

[dendrite]

this is still on the extreme side of everything.

00z JMA may be slightly west of the GFS now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

00z JMA may be slightly west of the GFS now.

Even it prob downslopes you.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Wow, classic hook-and-latter event depicted on the GFS.....looked like a whiff at the surface around hr 72, then up she went!

NAM is trying to do that, but not there, yet.

[Baroclinic Zone]

00z JMA may be slightly west of the GFS now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

My EURO call is a hair west of 12z....pretty in line the the GFS: confidence "8" on a scale of 1-10.

[Boston-winter08]

that GEFS mean is disturbingly east

[isnice]

My EURO call is a hair west of 12z....pretty in line the the GFS: confidence "8" on a scale of 1-10.

BOLD...care to bet?

[weathafella]

I think we have good consistency (today) between GFS and Euro but we really can't lock this until tomorrow night.

[40/70 Benchmark]

that GEFS mean is disturbingly east

The GEFS are disturbingly retarded; they still had a I-95 with a HECS up until like hr 24, prior to VD 2007.

[Boston-winter08]

Doesn't the storm currently over MN look stronger than what the models are forecasting....compare the band going through IL with projected 00z GFS QPF...something doesn't match up and i'm not sure if that's good or bad for us

[40/70 Benchmark]

BOLD...care to bet?

What would you like to wager; I'm in the process of handing cpickett his azz...care to join the frey.....

[weathafella]

Euro's running...and I"m up.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Verbatim, it looks as though I would be having Blizzard conditions at 84h per the GFS.

Station ID: KTAN Lat: 41.87 Long: 71.02

GFS Model Run: 0Z 24DEC 2010

HR Valid 2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX Low Middle High Max Min Sfc

Deg F Deg F deg kt in. in. Thk GPH Tmp Tmp mb % TEXT Clouds Clouds Clouds Tmp Tmp Vis

84 12/27 12Z 29 28 350 32 0.63 0.00 530 515 -6.6 -23.9 980.5 100 SN 000OVC107 107OVC192 218BKN271 32 29 0.0

[40/70 Benchmark]

1031-964mb gradient on the 00z GFS

Regardless of how much snow falls, I'm not sure folks understand the ramifications of that; holy sh**.

3 mb more potent than Feb 1978...3.5 day range......that's cute at day 5-7, but it's sobering within day 4.