The Post Christmas storm threat is still vey real

[mahk_webstah]

I think so but I can't compare like to like. 12Z was WAAAAY OTS

in the main forum thread it was said the UK was way west of its last run but still a miss

[leesun]

LOL Lets not forget the JMA. They had this trend before the GFS

Let's be honest...there's only one more op model tonight that matters and it comes out at 1 AM. We'll look at the UKMET and the GGEM out of formality, but I doubt anyone gives a damn about them.

[DomNH]

LOL Lets not forget the JMA. They had this trend before the GFS

I can't tell if this is a serious post or a joke. I hope it's the latter.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

For those who are interested, here's the forecast qpf for the last three runs of the GFS:

Right now, I'm cautiously optimistic that the westward trend that commenced on the 18z GFS may be a real trend. It was confirmed, at least to some extent, by the 0z NAM's slight improvement over its 18z run and now the 0z GFS. It will be interesting to see the ensembles and the other models (GGEM, UKMET, and ECMWF) that will run over the next few hours.

Thanks Don. Like you I'm hopeful. I will say hte Uk/GGEM are irrelevant in my mind at this point based on recent performance. The EC is more important so long as it stays close but I think we'd have to expect it won't deviate much. As the GFS moves towards the earlier EC bombs I do wonder if it will trend back towards that but up near us...a low stalled under an upper low.

not sure what you are trying to tell me.

All I'm saying is whether you hang by your feet like a bat while looking at the EC, it won't change what happens Monday. I think the EC ens have been pretty consistent, the GFS and its ensembles too. It's close enough that we can have as much confidence as we can at this range with a track around the BM. We're still at 84 hours so the details will change but we're getting pretty much beyond the point where a model should do a major flop aside of coming into the fold. I hope!

Well we got much more digging/amplification of the trough this run and ticked it a bit west. I'm not sure we can go much more west than this.

I could see it getting a little further north to get NH/ME better with the GFS depiction. But barring a change at 5h it can only get so far as you said.

There's little doubt in my mind now that the Euro is going to at the very least hold serve tonight. I think this may finally be the one.

Oh sh(t, I'm getting invested.

I'd agree. If it doesn't I'm not sure I'd care much anyway, the OP EC has been far from stable.

UKMET has the storm pretty far east but at 72 hours about to wrap it up. Might make a pass but too far out. And frankly I have no concern about the crazy uncle.

UKMET was terrible with that last one I know you were following it too

[weathafella]

The end of the run is VERY cold!

[leesun]

It's a joke, but the JMA did have this similar solution at 12z

I can't tell if this is a serious post or a joke. I hope it's the latter.

[dendrite]

Can someone tell me why the GFS jogs right between hr 84 and 90?

Eventually the vort steers the sfc low northward and then it's "pulled" a bit nw as the ull captures it. then another piece of energy drops in from the higher latitudes ahead of the advancing ridge and interacts with the occluded system and kicks in more eastward.

[DomNH]

It's a joke, but the JMA did have this similar solution at 12z

Lol, ok. I gotcha.

[dendrite]

I could see it getting a little further north to get NH/ME better with the GFS depiction. But barring a change at 5h it can only get so far as you said.

Right. I'll agree with that. Slam it right into Eastport.

[SnowMan]

Well, I will stay up - just hope I can sleep well after the Euro comes out...

[OKpowdah]

Can someone tell me why the GFS jogs right between hr 84 and 90?

It's the stupid Quebec trough. Makes this a very progressive storm. It's also a reason why we can't see much more westward movement.

This is my dream:

[H2Otown_WX]

The end of the run is VERY cold!

That is serious cold. -30C 2M temps. in the Plains.

[MarkO]

Eventually the vort steers the sfc low northward and then it's "pulled" a bit nw as the ull captures it. then another piece of energy drops in from the higher latitudes ahead of the advancing ridge and interacts with the occluded system and kicks in more eastward.

Appreciated!

[weatherwiz]

Some nice VV's out across the Cape

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

I will gladly take a mix of rain/snow especially if this can become the monster the EURO had a few days ago, especially if the 18z GFS would be right with the intensity of the SLP.

[weatherwiz]

Pretty sick pressure gradient and sfc pressure down to 962mb...just sick.

[snowNH]

It's the stupid Quebec trough. Makes this a very progressive storm. It's also a reason why we can't see much more westward movement.

This is my dream:

I don't see why we can't get that far west still?

[Boston-winter08]

surprise, surprise GGEM OTS

[skierinvermont]

The ggem is OTS still but an improvement. Don't really care though.

[Boston-winter08]

surprise, surprise GGEM OTS

though it does shift west about 100 miles

[weatherwiz]

We'll probably continue to see some wiggles west/east with regards to the storm track but I doubt we see anything extreme...looks like that doesn't look all that different than the euro or the ens?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Some nice VV's out across the Cape

The 22's are literally right over my house.

GGEM is a total whiff still. Barely budged.

Only thing that does concern me is the EC was showing similar solutions - bombing epic low before it folded on that solution to our south in favor of a solution that progressed up the coast. It's getting to the point now where it's hard to see that occuring again but it wouldn't be the first time.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

GGEM, UKMET, and NOGAPS models are absolutely no use to me, they stink, until I am proven otherwise they stink.

[bmj16725]

According to NYC thread, GFS ens. are east of OP.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

GGEM, UKMET, and NOGAPS models are absolutely no use to me, they stink, until I am proven otherwise they stink.

NOGAPs woke up from a long slumber at 0z. Came hundreds of miles west. Precip barely/just off the coast. The trend with the GGEM/Nogaps back to the west is very encouraging for support sake.

[snowNH]

According to NYC thread, GFS ens. are east of OP.

as expected

[SC48]

The Nogaps has a SE bias. Always had and always will. Ukmet has a similar bias but to a lesser extent. Tha GGEM I'm not sure about. But I think it's trying to catch up.

[DomNH]

There's no way I'm staying up for the Euro...in fact I suggest you all get good night sleeps so you can have merry Christmas Eves and look at the good news in the morning. Best of both worlds.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

Ensemble means are further east then the operational, normally this is the case with most modeled storms. Need some sleep.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

According to NYC thread, GFS ens. are east of OP.

I think they're pretty far east. I wouldn't really change anything based on tonights GFS. Even looking at the vv's wiz posted, IMO, it's still a SE NE highest threat along the lines of Harv's map.