Bostonseminole Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 114-138 is What to look for if the EURO jumps ship. At LEAST we have a fall back. I don't see anything.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 lol, i hate talking about TV mets but Pete just said: To be honest with you, I'm getting sick of following this storm. We thought we had it under control with the storm passing well offshore, but now one of the better weather maps just came out and smacks us with a foot plus of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 dang lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I agree, will be nice to see the Euro have a run similar to last nights and we are in business... Won't change whether the storm is coming or not and there's nothing that it can show for you that will be much better than a gigantic low pressure passing near the BM. The cone narrows. I could see the low still getting a little further NW particularly for ME/NH, but unless the 5h adjusts it can only get so far NW. I really hope it slams the ski areas, could care less about the Cape this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 its not done coming west get your shovel polish out and you bet your bottom dollar its not done coming west yet out for the night see you in the AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 people can quickly become delusional and occasionally psychotic if they stay up 84 hours... Same thing seems to happen when people view computer models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 yeah verbatim...there's actually rain up into extreme se ma/cape etc for a time on this run. The bombing low moving due north should at least help keep a decent northerly ageostrophic component...but yeah, it may not matter verbatim this run to keep it all snow for the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 While it appears the ridge axis is a bit further east...slightly it's also oriented more SW to NE ish than S to N...seems like this extra little tilt allows for the trough to dig back west a little bit into part of the gulf-coast States this could help to hold back the southern stream energy a bit more allowing it to potentially take on a negative tilt earlier which looks to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I don't see anything.. NCEP page is screwed up. From hour 90 and on it shows 2 nights ago's run. Weird. Very weird. I saw an ocean storm at that range an thought it was was another. It was just this 2 days ago haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 For those who are interested, here's the forecast qpf for the last three runs of the GFS: Right now, I'm cautiously optimistic that the westward trend that commenced on the 18z GFS may be a real trend. It was confirmed, at least to some extent, by the 0z NAM's slight improvement over its 18z run and now the 0z GFS. It will be interesting to see the ensembles and the other models (GGEM, UKMET, and ECMWF) that will run over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It's an issue with the 5H trof swinging down from Quebec that mucks it up and doesn't allow it to really wrap more N and W with the deformation. Of course we have 72 hours to change that configuration. Instead it gets booted.... But up to that point it certainly was quite a comeback for this thing. It has been a problem from the get go, And don't know if we move it quick enough to allow this vort to come NW, I need it to hook into the GOM then we are in biz.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Won't change whether the storm is coming or not and there's nothing that it can show for you that will be much better than a gigantic low pressure passing near the BM. not sure what you are trying to tell me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Well we got much more digging/amplification of the trough this run and ticked it a bit west. I'm not sure we can go much more west than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This run might get the attention of the MA folks just a little bit, especially if the ensembles move west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Well we got much more digging/amplification of the trough this run and ticked it a bit west. I'm not sure we can go much more west than this. Agreed...I'd be very shocked if we started seeing anything further west than what is being shown here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 There's little doubt in my mind now that the Euro is going to at the very least hold serve tonight. I think this may finally be the one. Oh sh(t, I'm getting invested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 UKMET has the storm pretty far east but at 72 hours about to wrap it up. Might make a pass but too far out. And frankly I have no concern about the crazy uncle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 UKMET has the storm pretty far east but at 72 hours about to wrap it up. Might make a pass but too far out. And frankly I have no concern about the crazy uncle. Is it any west of the 12z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 UKMET has the storm pretty far east but at 72 hours about to wrap it up. Might make a pass but too far out. And frankly I have no concern about the crazy uncle. Let's be honest...there's only one more op model tonight that matters and it comes out at 1 AM. We'll look at the UKMET and the GGEM out of formality, but I doubt anyone gives a damn about them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The bombing low moving due north should at least help keep a decent northerly ageostrophic component...but yeah, it may not matter verbatim this run to keep it all snow for the Cape. yeah i'm not overly concerned...plus...it'll do what it wants to do. in the end, my issue is getting it right. the soundings definitely are warm down my way for about 6 hours or so on that run despite screaming NNE flow. the one plus is the low is so remarkably deep the warm look to the soundings is offset a bit by the fact that the column is shallow because the low is so ridiculously deep. it's all a matter of miles really. won't know any of that kind of stuff until we are much closer in (assuming this doesn't make a giant leap one way or the other). one signal that remains in tact is some ferocious wind along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 There's little doubt in my mind now that the Euro is going to at the very least hold serve tonight. I think this may finally be the one. Oh sh(t, I'm getting invested. Let the Euro remove your clothing one article at a time and then dive in. I'll hopefully be naked in the a.m. ... can't stay up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Right now IMO it can tick a couple or so nautical miles nw but as of now being closer to a consensus we shouldn't see huge flip flops in the low position at the BM. But remember, you have to start to talk abut precip type issues if it does go a couple or so nautical miles NW from it current predicted position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Heavy heavy Bermuda high on the long range GFS. Let's hope this one pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Let's be honest...there's only one more op model tonight that matters and it comes out at 1 AM. We'll look at the UKMET and the GGEM out of formality, but I doubt anyone gives a damn about them. Well it certainly would've been nice if the Ukie was at least any bit west of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Well we got much more digging/amplification of the trough this run and ticked it a bit west. I'm not sure we can go much more west than this. yeah but is there something that can be done about that quick cut ene as it is bombing near the benchmark? The overall track maybe can't go more west but could it come a little further north...then we get 12 instead of 6-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Is it any west of the 12z run? I think so but I can't compare like to like. 12Z was WAAAAY OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Well it certainly would've been nice if the Ukie was at least any bit west of 12z. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 well...i'm out. if this thing really does get close to a good hit in the next few days, there will be reason to stay up sat and sun nights. not tonight for me. good luck and keep your emotions in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I think so but I can't compare like to like. 12Z was WAAAAY OTS Well as long as it's a tick west...better than a tick east Although given how far OTS the Ukie was at 12z I find it hard to imagine it could have gone any more east than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Can someone tell me why the GFS jogs right between hr 84 and 90? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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