MaineJayhawk Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 God's Country back in the game. Mike will be happy come 4:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Well west... Can you come online, Andrew? I think you get borderline warning snows with this or more. My graphics stink for old eyes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 i guess I'm staying for the EURO Same here! What's another 3 hours...that's why they invented coffee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I have been assured by a certain somebody that this track isn't going to happen because the ridge axis is too far east everyone go to bed nothing to see here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I can't imagine it will occlude that fast either... I think we will see a bump in precip as we get closer to the event.. 2/2 tonight guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 What does the timing look like for the onset of precip into SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Thanks. How's the QPF? Boston, good. Faster timing on the digging energy. Qpf wise you do well, .75" boston to 1.25" out towards you, Sharp cuttoff west and the ENE jog from the benchmark leaves me with .25" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Is it worth staying up for the Euro now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Same here! What's another 3 hours...that's why they invented coffee. Wiz - just so you know, the world's record for number of hours staying awake is 264 (11 days). You can do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Is it worth staying up for the Euro now? yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millpondwx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 bombs very quicly with a good a good track but moving very fast which limits accumulations. 6-12" ORH to the Cape but maybe the 16" range if it slows a bit. Also, there's easily room for this to phase differently which would pull the track closer to coast. There seems to be an unnatural jog to the east from 72h to 78h at 500mb with the low closing off to the south of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 i guess I'm staying for the EURO GFS has kind of stuck with this general idea of a low hitting us pretty hard. It's really just crept west/stronger if you look back at the last several runs. The EC has shifted pretty wildly during that same time frame in terms of the overall solution although it's probably settling now. The GFS has done well enough, and the NAM has come along to the bomb idea far enough at this point that it's time to assume this is going to happen...even if the EC were to shift violently east. NAM is getting closer each run but I said it over an hour ago, toss it. RGEM/GGEM, UKMET too, all were horrific at this range with the last ocean storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I can't imagine it will occlude that fast either... I think we will see a bump in precip as we get closer to the event.. 2/2 tonight guys Well if it's bombing that rapidly and closing off that quickly it would certainly probably begin occluding much more quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Qpf wise you do well, .75" boston to 1.25" out towards you, Sharp cuttoff west and the ENE jog from the benchmark leaves me with .25" here You look to be solidly in the .5 category on NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 What's that at H114???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Is it worth staying up for the Euro now? FOR SURE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wiz - just so you know, the world's record for number of hours staying awake is 264 (11 days). You can do it! Wow...the most I ever did was something like 84 or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millpondwx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 What does the timing look like for the onset of precip into SNE? Well, there's been a pretty consistent signala of some ocean effect snow kicking up midday in southeast mass area by middday. The synoptic snows probably arrive on the south coast around 5pm moving up to BOS by 8pm. That's at least what the GFS is now showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 You look to be solidly in the .5 category on NCEP. and boston was over an inch and the cape over 1.5 and even I just nw of CON was over .5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GFS has kind of stuck with this general idea of a low hitting us pretty hard. It's really just crept west/stronger if you look back at the last several runs. The EC has shifted pretty wildly during that same time frame in terms of the overall solution although it's probably settling now. The GFS has done well enough, and the NAM has come along to the bomb idea far enough at this point that it's time to assume this is going to happen...even if the EC were to shift violently east. NAM is getting closer each run but I said it over an hour ago, toss it. RGEM/GGEM, UKMET too, all were horrific at this range with the last ocean storm. I agree, will be nice to see the Euro have a run similar to last nights and we are in business... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cja1987 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 As longs as the 850 temps are cold enough we shouldn't mix right? Or do I have to look at the lower levels as well? Too early to tell with this one but generally that statement is not correct. It is highly dependent on the surface-925mb winds as well. If you get enough low level WAA off the ocean, mixing can be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If this were to verify I can only imagine how incredibly ferocious this storm would be in terms of wind, precip, damage across the board. There's more energy diving down even at 90 out of E CA....BIrving post the 78 maps earlier....just amazing stuff. Still a long way to go but beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 bombs very quicly with a good a good track but moving very fast which limits accumulations. 6-12" ORH to the Cape but maybe the 16" range if it slows a bit. Also, there's easily room for this to phase differently which would pull the track closer to coast. There seems to be an unnatural jog to the east from 72h to 78h at 500mb with the low closing off to the south of SNE. is lengthening the duration of this storm significantly (not from OES) from a slower system off the table ? would getting the big atlantic low to sit and spin longer help and if so is this feasible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow - 500h progression was nearly perfect - very similar to 18z but a good 50 or more miles west when the nearly perfect phase occurred. Good to have this type of model output as we're heading closer to the event, gotta keep our fingers crossed. Boston gets absolutely crushed on this run, gotta see how strong the winds are on the capse. Weenie map!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 bombs very quicly with a good a good track but moving very fast which limits accumulations. 6-12" ORH to the Cape but maybe the 16" range if it slows a bit. Also, there's easily room for this to phase differently which would pull the track closer to coast. There seems to be an unnatural jog to the east from 72h to 78h at 500mb with the low closing off to the south of SNE. Yeah, I agree with you here, It should have more of a northerly component to it or a NNW movemnet with it bombing at this rate....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It's an issue with the 5H trof swinging down from Quebec that mucks it up and doesn't allow it to really wrap more N and W with the deformation. Of course we have 72 hours to change that configuration. Instead it gets booted.... But up to that point it certainly was quite a comeback for this thing. Qpf wise you do well, .75" boston to 1.25" out towards you, Sharp cuttoff west and the ENE jog from the benchmark leaves me with .25" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow...the most I ever did was something like 84 or something. Sleep deprivation is actually more deadly than food deprivation ... just sayin, people can quickly become delusional and occasionally psychotic if they stay up 84 hours... the brain literally needs sleep to survive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 114-138 is What to look for if the EURO jumps ship. At LEAST we have a fall back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Too early to tell with this one but generally that statement is not correct. It is highly dependent on the surface-925mb winds as well. If you get enough low level WAA off the ocean, mixing can be a problem. yeah verbatim...there's actually rain up into extreme se ma/cape etc for a time on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Unless the GFS is a crippling blizzard for all of New England, I'm not staying up for the Euro. I stayed up last night, and it was rewarding, but unfortunately any jubilation was smothered by the 12z NAM and the events that followed dang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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