The Post Christmas storm threat is still vey real

[weatherwiz]

Certainly a better look than the 18z/12z runs but still not quite enough

[snowNH]

00z NAM actually isn't too far from the 18z NAM IMO

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Very close to it, but the trough still looks too + too long on this run.

I don't know what to say but I do believe that we either need the energy digging from the upper MS to slow a few hours, or we need the SW s/w to speed up a few hours. The angle of the dangle is off as it approaches the east coast which causes the s/w to maintain get away.

It also has a very suspect s/w crashing into the ridge out west at 72-78 which seems ridiculous to me given the situation. I'm tossing it for now, will await the GFS.

[CoastalWx]

well what do you think about the shot for this coming NNE up the coast instead of the crap direction the 0z nam had.

I don't see how it won't take a similar "direction" that 18z runs had. That said, the key is where the low forms. If it phases a little sooner, the low forms right along the GA coast, and probably moves nne. This would bring the low closer to or inside the BM perhaps....IF it did develop like that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Gonna be a bomb

00z NAM actually isn't too far from the 18z NAM IMO

Sometimes I wish you'd negatively tilt and retrograde into the NYC subforum.

[cpickett79]

from don s pm

Cpickett79,

Yes, you can feel free to post my thoughts. I might post in the SNE forum later (probably during the 0z GFS run).

There are still issues, but a good phase is not impossible. Right now, I think Boston is at moderate risk for 4"-8" snow with higher amounts not too far to the east. Only a small shift in the track could make a difference between let's say a light 2"-4" event or a heavier 6"-12" one in the greater Boston area. Hopefully, the 0z guidance will add support to the improvement seen on the 18z GFS. I do worry somewhat about possible p-type issues/low ratios at least for a time on the Cape and Nantucket.

Best wishes,

Don then after i thanked him he says "hopefully the 0z gfs comes in better than the 0z nam or 18z gfs"

[CoastalWx]

18z had that too...inv trough with a little bonus OES. Shoot me now if that verifies.

I'm seeing signs somebody might pull a Dec '04 and Jan '05, perhaps with a few inches before any synoptic snow arrive.

BTW, even the euro ensembles gave you love. Luckily, as the low moves almost due north, the comma head expands nnw into srn NH. Just stop having ripping nnw winds..lol.

[CoastalWx]

Sometimes I wish you'd negatively title and retrograde into the NYC subforum.

[MaineJayhawk]

Good night, Scott.

[moneypitmike]

from don s pm

Cpickett79,

Yes, you can feel free to post my thoughts. I might post in the SNE forum later (probably during the 0z GFS run).

There are still issues, but a good phase is not impossible. Right now, I think Boston is at moderate risk for 4"-8" snow with higher amounts not too far to the east. Only a small shift in the track could make a difference between let's say a light 2"-4" event or a heavier 6"-12" one in the greater Boston area. Hopefully, the 0z guidance will add support to the improvement seen on the 18z GFS. I do worry somewhat about possible p-type issues/low ratios at least for a time on the Cape and Nantucket.

Best wishes,

Don then after i thanked him he says "hopefully the 0z gfs comes in better than the 0z nam or 18z gfs"

That would be classic. A powerful storm that doesn't might provide p-type issues on the Cape yet can't get heavier snows past Worcester. That would be pretty unusual I would think.

But, first things first. Let's get this to at least bring snow to some of our SNE brethren.

[CoastalWx]

Hold me tight, Scott.

I saw that look you gave me at the gtg.

[RICoastalMan]

My confidence is growing this one will not be a total miss for most of SNE, but it's also not growing that it will be a major storm. But with no measurable snowfall yet this season, I'll take what I can get.

[Bostonseminole]

Good night, Scott.

[shadow]

seems to be doing the normal flip flopping just like the last storms i just hope it doesn't miss ots like the last we should know friday

[dendrite]

Just stop having ripping nnw winds..lol.

I was able to see the moon through the clouds all night last night.

[dryslot]

Sometimes I wish you'd negatively title and retrograde into the NYC subforum.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I was able to see the moon through the clouds all night last night.

This is getting to you; I hardly ever see you unnerved, but you have been irritable of late. lol

[dryslot]

I saw that look you gave me at the gtg.

Did he wink, Thats a true sign........lol

[moneypitmike]

Okay--hopes to stay up for the gfs are shot. I'm out. I hope to come down at 4:30 and discover lots of good things.

Good luck--we're all counting on you.

[weatherwiz]

I guess if you wanted to see some sort of signs of a possible move west on the NAM this was a start...tried to dig the trough axis back east a bit and amplify things off the coast a bit...there still needs to be a ton of work done here.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Okay--hopes to stay up for the gfs are shot. I'm out. I hope to come down at 4:30 and discover lots of good things.

Good luck--we're all counting on you.

[shadow]

Okay--hopes to stay up for the gfs are shot. I'm out. I hope to come down at 4:30 and discover lots of good things.

Good luck--we're all counting on you.

yea i am out too work in the am good luck everybody hope it keeps trending west

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The naysayers will say that between 30-45 hours there is no way the gulf s/w will get squashed like that but it just happened a few days ago. We could question the w to e vorticity over MN now rotating down into the base of the trough and helping to shear out the gom s/w at 36 hours as the timing is just a tiny bit off. I'd question how at 66 hours we have side by side s/w's diving down the MS valley 100 miles apart at the moment the first two lead s/w's are in the process of phasing east of the M/A.

The thing is I'd say the NAM is totally out to lunch but as we're seeing even though a lot of details may change the general theme doesn't. IE, a scrape is a scrape, a miss is a miss.

It's one model, I think it looks a bit suspicious and it's clearly evident now there are so many pieces of energy coming down this is a disaster for the models to handle which is why they have been everywhere.

[Bostonseminole]

Henry M's facebook page seems weird.. talking about last nights euro

http://www.facebook.com/MeteoMadness

[SC48]

Take a look guys at the 84 hour total for the latest nam model. It looks actually good although I know at this range it is way under done with precip. This is actually a very positive step in the right direction. Now lets get some good heavy hitting model support.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I guess if you wanted to see some sort of signs of a possible move west on the NAM this was a start...tried to dig the trough axis back east a bit and amplify things off the coast a bit...there still needs to be a ton of work done here.

it's just slowly moving toward the model consensus at this point. given it's the NAM, it'll probably catch on in the next 18 to 24 hours or so...and then maybe even over-correct for a time and weenies in NYS will unnecessarily stand at attention.

[dendrite]

This is getting to you; I hardly ever see you unnerved, but you have been irritable of late. lol

It's a little frustrating. It pisses me off when precip moves right through here from Maine, drops 3-5" up there, downslopes me with 0, and then proceeds to drop 1-2" at MHT-ASH...lol. I'm laughing more about it now like that Jan-Apr 2010 stretch we had. Most of the irritability in my posts was related to slow downs and praise for Marcus. That sets me off so I will warn people in advance to not troll me with that stuff.

[40/70 Benchmark]

NAM congratulates Nova Scotia.

[Tropopause_Fold]

It's a little frustrating. It pisses me off when precip moves right through here from Maine, drops 3-5" up there, downslopes me with 0, and then proceeds to drop 1-2" at MHT-ASH...lol. I'm laughing more about it now like that Jan-Apr 2010 stretch we had. Most of the irritability in my posts was related to slow downs and praise for Marcus. That sets me off so I will warn people in advance to not troll me with that stuff.

Brian, so if i'm reading this right...you want me to say bad stuff about AmWx and really talk up Marcus and eastern?

[weatherwiz]

it's just slowly moving toward the model consensus at this point. given it's the NAM, it'll probably catch on in the next 18 to 24 hours or so...and then maybe even over-correct for a time and weenies in NYS will unnecessarily stand at attention.

At this point it's probably really hard to against a track somewhere right around the benchmark, whether it be just inside it or just outside of it. It's just a matter of what course it takes to get there...does it stay off the coast and take a more northerly turn to get there only giving eastern sections a good shot or doe sit hug the coast a bit more and take a NE turn to get there which would give more of an impact to all of SNE.