Kbosch Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well the NAM is an unmitigated disaster. Easy to see that with the 48 hour panel. Don't need much creativity to extrapolate that trainwreck. With this pass miss the Ec and gfs took turns telling us it was a hit. At this range the nam had a different setup but indicated a good hit when everything else sucked. It ended up being very close to the nam which was the most aggressive. Let's not say it's the nam plus 48, it's done at least as well as the rest Definitely true on the last storm. We clutched that NAM hard. I just doubt this will end up with the same outcome of failure by the globals. I think we all know anything and everything will go wrong with timing and phasing but still, it is the Euro and GFS against it. For now anyways. Ray showing some cautious optimism FTW! That's not optimism for him; he'd call that an unmitigated disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 yeah... normally i'd just toss it because it's the NAM... but it's so hideous and so terrible I have a sort of bad feeling about it Thank God the GFS looked good.....we'd really be in suicide mode already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'll keep the NAM solution in mind as we go through the rest of the suite. Can't discount it just because it shows an undesireable result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Definitely true on the last storm. We clutched that NAM hard. I just doubt this will end up with the same outcome of failure by the globals. I think we all know anything and everything will go wrong with timing and phasing but still, it is the Euro and GFS against it. For now anyways. That's not optimism for him; he'd call that an unmitigated disaster. You are correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 yeah... normally i'd just toss it because it's the NAM... but it's so hideous and so terrible I have a sort of bad feeling about it With its instability....hopefully it is wrong. Bad start here..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 One piece of positive from the NAM: It has followed the trend for the Quebec energy to dive down further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 You're just as bad as Ray at times. AHHHHHHH!!!!!! We're all doomed, one model is a whiff. Seriously? Until the GFS, Euro, and it's associated ensm. go bye-bye, we're all good. The gfs ens sucked at this range on the last event and so did the Ec but that's irrelevant too. We are simply talking about the 12z nam or we can go back to talking about our wives or our feelings about hot chocolate. The definition of bias as defined by someone at hpc posted on another thread was ignoring guidance that doesn't have positives to support a position. The NAM should be discounted until other guidance comes in as it has made wild changes but it's hard to ignore that the Ec has as well. The gfs couldn't forecast this last event six hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 With its instability....hopefully it is wrong. Bad start here..lol. I mean if the NAM showed a close whiff or brush of the mid atlantic/SE NE I'd still feel good. But this. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I like HPC's day 4-5 map................. I would be very happy with that if it pans out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 One piece of positive from the NAM: It has followed the trend for the Quebec energy to dive down further west. "One positive trend from my marriage: The wife has lost 50 lbs but she slept with the neighbor and divorced me". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I mean if the NAM showed a close whiff or brush of the mid atlantic/SE NE I'd still feel good. But this. Ouch. maybe it's just moving toward the consensus of a hair outside of 40/70...just taking the round about way of getting to that position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 One piece of positive from the NAM: It has followed the trend for the Quebec energy to dive down further west. ever since you explained it, ive been carefully studying that ridge out west and its cresting tendencies, and the quebec energy..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 HPC's map is essentially the 06z GFS. The fact that the ECM waivered so drastically last night can't instill a ton of condfidence in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Look at all those what look to be negatively tilted s/w out there in the Pacific coast of CA which are really dig and amplify that ridge...I wonder how all these s/w are affecting things here with the ridge itself and then downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMizer Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 My wife threatened to smash the laptop and/or my Blackberry if I am on it during X-mas. No lie. She despises me being on the board all the time. Too bad.. Me FTW. Time to get a new wife Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 "One positive trend from my marriage: The wife has lost 50 lbs but she slept with the neighbor and divorced me". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 maybe it's just moving toward the consensus of a hair outside of 40/70...just taking the round about way of getting to that position. I don't think so. The NAM is going to be way east and pretty weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I mean if the NAM showed a close whiff or brush of the mid atlantic/SE NE I'd still feel good. But this. Ouch. What makes me nervous on this, is even at 48 hours, when compared to the euro, the NAM was notably different with the orientation of the ridge/back side of the trough, in terms of how steep the gradient is, and how much the PV and northern stream energy is diving down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'll keep the NAM solution in mind as we go through the rest of the suite. Can't discount it just because it shows an undesireable result. Looks like it trys to bring some qpf in here on the last panel.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I mean if the NAM showed a close whiff or brush of the mid atlantic/SE NE I'd still feel good. But this. Ouch. Lol. This isn't the pilot announcing some engine trouble this is the pilot telling you both wings just fell off. It's one run and it isn't that far from being a good hit but it's a shot across the bow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Lol. This isn't the pilot announcing some engine trouble this is the pilot telling you both wings just fell off. It's one run and it isn't that far from being a good hit but it's a shot across the bow. Yeah... it's also so much further east with the trough axis and where it drops down the PV that I'm concerned. I've always thought that would be a potential issue with this... the flow would remain too flat down south and we'd have a hard time getting it north fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I don't think so. The NAM is going to be way east and pretty weak. i think past the end of the run it would probably bomb but just too little too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Just announced to the office it's all over. Half groans, half cheers. I'm heading for my gun safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I don't care if it's the KMA....having any piece of guidance trendin in this manner so close in is bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Lol. This isn't the pilot announcing some engine trouble this is the pilot telling you both wings just fell off. It's one run and it isn't that far from being a good hit but it's a shot across the bow. come one.. is one NAM run, ..if the GFS moves to the NAM then I worry a little.. but as long as the EC holds I am OK, specially since we are <100hrs.. actually sub < 84 hrs no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Just announced to the office it's all over. Half groans, half cheers. I'm heading for my gun safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 ever since you explained it, ive been carefully studying that ridge out west and its cresting tendencies, and the quebec energy..... It was a big player in the outcome of last night's Euro and the 06z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'll keep the NAM solution in mind as we go through the rest of the suite. Can't discount it just because it shows an undesireable result. Exactly. Remember last week at about this time, it was the 18z NAM that first showed the last big threat as a whiff. That came right on the heels of two euphoria-inducing Euro runs, so everyone just short of shrugged it off. But in retrospect it was the beginning of the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Time to get a new wife Time to get the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 come one.. is one NAM run, ..if the GFS moves to the NAM then I worry a little.. but as long as the EC holds I am OK, specially since we are <100hrs.. actually sub < 84 hrs no? It was the 06z the NAM that portended the last fail....doesn't necessarily mean that is happening again, but sometimes at catches things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.