The Post Christmas storm threat is still vey real

[snowNH]

I think I'm going to laugh if they shift east.

They def will

[CT Rain]

15:1 ratios, huh? I'll allow myself to weenie out with that HPC map then.

What total garbage that is. Sure itmay happen but it's going to take a while to figure out where ratios are going to be solid and where they won't be.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15:1 ratios, huh? I'll allow myself to weenie out with that HPC map then.

Their new map is essentially an 18z GFS\12Z euro compromise, which what I suggested was best earlier....def. right move.

[40/70 Benchmark]

What total garbage that is. Sure itmay happen but it's going to take a while to figure out where ratios are going to be solid and where they won't be.

Yea, which is why I'm going conservative and guessing 12:1 for my area; have to imagine they will be better than 10:1.

[moneypitmike]

I think it's clear that the folks on the Cape and nearby areas should be feeling verry comfortable at this point. I'm on the fringe here, so while I've got a dog in the hunt it's kinda old and only has three legs. After the 12z run, I hope anybody outside of those eastern most areas can refrain from unreasonable expectations. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and road trip to Phil's for a shoveling festival.

[MaineJayhawk]

Their new map is essentially an 18z GFS\12Z euro compromise, which what I suggested was best earlier....def. right move.

Yeah, I'm looking at the latest now. Not as kickass, but I'll take it with those 12 or 15:1 ratios.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I have zero expectations for the 00z NAM tonight. It's still out in la-la land at 84h. I'm hoping the 00z GFS comes a tick west or hold serve from 18z. And the same for the Euro.

The 18z GFS and 12z Euro don't look all that different at 90 and 96h respectively.

[cpickett79]

from that latest copy and paste of Don S's thoughts it doesn't sound like he's buying the bomb.

A nice phase is not a done deal

the option for the rug being pulled out from underneath us is still on the table and looks like a heck of a lot is riding on a Northern stream' strength and timing......when i step away from my weeniesm i have a hard time swallowing a low this deep as being modeled (at our latitude) by euro or gfs

The other reason for a tad of skeptisim is Usedtobe. He has a couple of posts where he obviously gives the euro credit as being a very good model....but says he notices a trend for it to over-phase. He mentioned this today.

So these are two reasons why i would not be suprised to see this crap the bed even this close in.

[CT Rain]

Yea, which is qhy I'm going conservative and guessing 12:1 for my area; have to imagine they will be better than 10:1.

Unless it's a cipper fluff-bomb I pretty much always go 10:1 until I'm 24 hours out. Most of the time that can help compensate for overdone QPF totals (which happens more often than not on the models outside of convection). If it's clear we'll be ripping beautiful dendrites with temperatures 20s then I'll bump up (which you can't accurately forecast beyond 24 hours IMO). Even cold temperatures with bad dendritic growth can give you crappy ratios.

[Boston-winter08]

I consider myself fairly prudent wrt meteorology, but i was amazed when Pete Bouchard said today that the last time New England saw a "phased storm" was the 1993 superstorm.....doesn't phasing occur with most Nor'Easters (is this just Pete being Pete)? Everytime i see a major storm on the east cost, the two streams have come together and I consider that a phase, but is there more to it?

[40/70 Benchmark]

from that latest copy and paste of Don S's thoughts it doesn't sound like he's buying the bomb.

A nice phase is not a done deal

the option for the rug being pulled out from underneath us is still on the table and looks like a heck of a lot is riding on a Northern stream' strength and timing......when i step away from my weeniesm i have a hard time swallowing a low this deep as being modeled (at our latitude) by euro or gfs

The other reason for a tad of skeptisim is Usedtobe. He has a couple of posts where he obviously gives the euro credit as being a very good model....but says he notices a trend for it to over-phase. He mentioned this today.

So these are two reasons why i would not be suprised to see this crap the bed even this close in.

This is true, but I feel as though we have seen it correct for that over the course of the past 36 hrs worth of runs and the GFS now corroborates it.

As for the weenie low pressures, I agree, but I don't think that it's going to have to mean a further east track because it's 968mb as opposed to 958mb.

[mahk_webstah]

Beautiful wv imagery tonight, the sw is really diving across central New Mexico this evening.

Was it supposed to dive that deep? I guess it is the northern stream we need to dig deep so as to get the heat involved that can build some ridging ahead of it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Unless it's a cipper fluff-bomb I pretty much always go 10:1 until I'm 24 hours out. Most of the time that can help compensate for overdone QPF totals (which happens more often than not on the models outside of convection). If it's clear we'll be ripping beautiful dendrites with temperatures 20s then I'll bump up (which you can't accurately forecast beyond 24 hours IMO). Even cold temperatures with bad dendritic growth can give you crappy ratios.

This is true.....but I dnt think it' s stetch to hedge towards 12:1 is all.

[cpickett79]

I think it's clear that the folks on the Cape and nearby areas should be feeling verry comfortable at this point. I'm on the fringe here, so while I've got a dog in the hunt it's kinda old and only has three legs. After the 12z run, I hope anybody outside of those eastern most areas can refrain from unreasonable expectations. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and road trip to Phil's for a shoveling festival.

disagree to a point

they should be most comfortabe out of everyone

but should 2 more cycle (12z tommorrow should they say the same things) then i would echo your thoughts ....stiill time for them to get stiffed as well. And i think everyone realizes this but from reading earlier pages from say 11am to 2pm i'm not sure they don't forget for a time. although that probability (of stiffing them) obviously decreases with every run

[40/70 Benchmark]

I consider myself fairly prudent wrt meteorology, but i was amazed when Pete Bouchard said today that the last time New England saw a "phased storm" was the 1993 superstorm.....doesn't phasing occur with most Nor'Easters (is this just Pete being Pete)? Everytime i see a major storm on the east cost, the two streams have come together and I consider that a phase, but is there more to it?

He probably meant a triple phase, which this one was pretty close to as previously modeled.

[Mr Torchey]

Was it supposed to dive that deep? I guess it is the northern stream we need to dig deep so as to get the heat involved that can build some ridging ahead of it.

yes, actually 18zgfs at 12 hours has that vort at 500 over south central new mexico, so looks legit to me.

[Ginx snewx]

Unless it's a cipper fluff-bomb I pretty much always go 10:1 until I'm 24 hours out. Most of the time that can help compensate for overdone QPF totals (which happens more often than not on the models outside of convection). If it's clear we'll be ripping beautiful dendrites with temperatures 20s then I'll bump up (which you can't accurately forecast beyond 24 hours IMO). Even cold temperatures with bad dendritic growth can give you crappy ratios.

Haven't seen any bufkit numbers for BOS or the cape but pretty sure at any rate there will not be beautiful dendrites with just off the deck at mixing level 60 knots and on the Cape 75

[cpickett79]

inland verbatim Euro Euro Ens/ GFS /ENS

what are the winds (ball park) for the 128-495 belt

are we talking 30 gusts 45 or higher? sorry if i missed this covered earlier

Ray mentioned the MB differential thou i didn't look at maps to see just how tightly packed it is but i have a wonderful memory of the 92 nor'easter and the power of the winds when i opened the screen door......would like to see that (winds) again.

[HoarfrostHubb]

He probably meant a triple phase, which this one was pretty close to as previously modeled.

From his El Blogo Grande:

"...the problem is choice." Do they want to phase? And more importantly, are they TIMED to phase? It's like double dutch in jump rope - if someone's out of step, it's game over.

Now honestly, I haven't seen good, home-grown meterorological phasing since the Superstorm of 1993. This isn't anywhere near that kind of storm, but I just thought I'd throw that out. For these storms to phase, things almost have to be perfect. I'm thinking they won't be. Therefore, the chances at a big, gnarly storm that dumps a foot of snow with wind gusts to 50mph is a measly 40%. However, I still think we'll get some snow. And I still think the potential is for 6" in some spots. Those probabilities (of a storm dumping 6" of snow) are 75-80%.

And there you have it on this Christmas Eve Eve. Just like the anticipation for Santa, we'll wait to see if the storms merge. We won't know that until late Saturday evening, but at least I have enough info. to give you some details.

Anyone care to fill me in?

I have not been on too much since noonish...

Good, bad, ugly...

[HoarfrostHubb]

One fantastic night with Messenger at WWBB as we stayed up all night watching a 954 bomb destroy buoy after buoy, it was a compact little Ho. Great night though.

That's 28 .17 could be one of the lowest non trips ever if it made landfall

Was that the one the NWS (Walt?) was reading when they requested more buoys?

[40/70 Benchmark]

From his El Blogo Grande:

"...the problem is choice." Do they want to phase? And more importantly, are they TIMED to phase? It's like double dutch in jump rope - if someone's out of step, it's game over.

Now honestly, I haven't seen good, home-grown meterorological phasing since the Superstorm of 1993. This isn't anywhere near that kind of storm, but I just thought I'd throw that out. For these storms to phase, things almost have to be perfect. I'm thinking they won't be. Therefore, the chances at a big, gnarly storm that dumps a foot of snow with wind gusts to 50mph is a measly 40%. However, I still think we'll get some snow. And I still think the potential is for 6" in some spots. Those probabilities (of a storm dumping 6" of snow) are 75-80%.

And there you have it on this Christmas Eve Eve. Just like the anticipation for Santa, we'll wait to see if the storms merge. We won't know that until late Saturday evening, but at least I have enough info. to give you some details.

Anyone care to fill me in?

I have not been on too much since noonish...

Good, bad, ugly...

He must mean a perfect phase, then because most are ugly.

[dendrite]

Unless it's a cipper fluff-bomb I pretty much always go 10:1 until I'm 24 hours out. Most of the time that can help compensate for overdone QPF totals (which happens more often than not on the models outside of convection). If it's clear we'll be ripping beautiful dendrites with temperatures 20s then I'll bump up (which you can't accurately forecast beyond 24 hours IMO). Even cold temperatures with bad dendritic growth can give you crappy ratios.

And good luck with maintaining fluff with 40+ mph winds. The crystals will be shredded.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I'm in moderate to High! And Harv has aged....

I remember talking to him by phone about a month after the 78 blizzard. I came into town to lament my fate for not being here for that fabulous event....THE signature snow event of the last century. So we got about 8 inches of snow in a system that was very much like recent ones....a left hook at the end. I was young....31 in March of 78 and was willing to go on very little sleep. When I spoke to Harvey, he commented on how lucky I was...a profession that was guaranteed to support me reasonably well vs meteorology. The rest is history, Harv probably earns in excess of what I do, and he's among the most respected TV mets around. Of course, I did fine in my own field.......but it's not the same as all of you snow obsessed weenies know...

It was really fun for a 10 year old growing up in Foxboro ... best snow forts eva!

[moneypitmike]

From his El Blogo Grande:

"...the problem is choice." Do they want to phase? And more importantly, are they TIMED to phase? It's like double dutch in jump rope - if someone's out of step, it's game over.

Now honestly, I haven't seen good, home-grown meterorological phasing since the Superstorm of 1993. This isn't anywhere near that kind of storm, but I just thought I'd throw that out. For these storms to phase, things almost have to be perfect. I'm thinking they won't be. Therefore, the chances at a big, gnarly storm that dumps a foot of snow with wind gusts to 50mph is a measly 40%. However, I still think we'll get some snow. And I still think the potential is for 6" in some spots. Those probabilities (of a storm dumping 6" of snow) are 75-80%.

And there you have it on this Christmas Eve Eve. Just like the anticipation for Santa, we'll wait to see if the storms merge. We won't know that until late Saturday evening, but at least I have enough info. to give you some details.

Anyone care to fill me in?

I have not been on too much since noonish...

Good, bad, ugly...

Probably just a bad choice of words, but I don't think I would describe a 40% chance of a foot of snow as "measley".

[moneypitmike]

Is everyone stocked up with snacks and beverage for the upcoming model runs? Hell, I might even stay up for the gfs. Life on the edge. lol

[Bostonseminole]

SREF @ 48hrs..

[Bostonseminole]

Is everyone stocked up with snacks and beverage for the upcoming model runs? Hell, I might even stay up for the gfs. Life on the edge. lol

diet pepsi and cookies while the kids watch that Kitty galore movie..

[WeatherX]

SREF @ 48hrs..

Too late with the backside energy

[moneypitmike]

diet pepsi and cookies while the kids watch that Kitty galore movie..

lol--i saw a little of that today with my daughter. Got a kick out of the Hannibal Lechter scene.

Okay--nam's running. Fingers crossed.

[CoastalWx]

And good luck with maintaining fluff with 40+ mph winds. The crystals will be shredded.

Jan '05. The most dense, dry snow ever.