The Post Christmas storm threat is still vey real

[ROOSTA]

What models show this?

SATURDAY NIGHT...AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS STREAM

N AS LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. A FEW MODELS HINTING AT

BRINGING SOME OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION MAINLY AFTER

MIDNIGHT.

Earlier runs had some snow breaking out well in advance. Looks like an old AFD or forecast

[ctsnowstorm628]

to be fair you were saying that with the last storm

but this setup is much more favorable with the progged 500mb pattern..

[OKpowdah]

So that's like, what, a category 3? Will Josh do any chasing?

yep! haha he should! lol

[MaineJayhawk]

yep! haha he should! lol

I don't know what that graph means, but I am totally in awe. Pretty colors. Nice choice of salmon for the highest intensity..

[snowNH]

Heavy heavy anticipation for 00z models

[SnowMan]

Heavy heavy anticipation for 00z models

I might try to stay up for the Euro...does it start at 1:30am?

[MaineJayhawk]

I might try to stay up for the Euro...does it start at 1:30am?

It starts earlier (just before 1:00a) but that'd be about when the pertinent panels come out.

[snowNH]

I might try to stay up for the Euro...does it start at 1:30am?

starts around 1.. itll be out to 96 around 120-130..

I will stay up for it depending on the other models. If most shift west, I'll def stay up for it considering there is no work tomorrow

[MarkO]

I might try to stay up for the Euro...does it start at 1:30am?

I believe it initializes a few min. before 1, but we should have our answer by then. The bigger question is will you be able to fall asleep with the results

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I'm out for a bit one quick ob.

6h NAM won't be good in terms of 500mb, 18z 6h GFS much better. That's good news I think.

Back later!

[snowNH]

OT, but why would they schedule such a stinker for Thursday Night Football... I mean Panthers at Steelers?? C'mon NFL...

[40/70 Benchmark]

+/- 50 miles, I'd consider that close.

Well, cc is like 75 miles from me, but....

[shadow]

starts around 1.. itll be out to 96 around 120-130..

I will stay up for it depending on the other models. If most shift west, I'll def stay up for it considering there is no work tomorrow

NICE no work tomorrow enjoy i am on duty for 24hrs friday have a nice x mas i will not have a comp friday so i will be freaking out untill i get home xmas morn :lol:hahaha

[snowNH]

I can't believe this storm is still 4 days out... I feel like we've been tracking it for a week now.

We need some 2000-2008 magic where storms trended NW a little each run from 3 days out til it hit

[OKpowdah]

I don't know what that graph means, but I am totally in awe. Pretty colors. Nice choice of salmon for the highest intensity..

lol. It's a cyclone phase diagram based on the 18z GFS forecast of the low. It uses the modeled thermal wind and SR thickness symmetry to differentiate between cold and warm core and symmetric and asymmetric. Tropical systems are symmetric warm core, and extratropical cyclones are asymmetric cold core.

In this case, with rapid cyclogenesis occuring at the surface, the system develops a warm core as the surface low deepens quicker than the mid level low (thus the thickness between the two layers increases in the center of the storm). And the storm becomes vertically stacked, and sheds frontal boundarys, it becomes more symmetric, before dying. Pretty common evolution for this type of mid latitude ocean cyclogenesis.

[shadow]

I can't believe this storm is still 4 days out... I feel like we've been tracking it for a week now.

We need some 2000-2008 magic where storms trended NW a little each run from 3 days out til it hit

yup that s whay when somebody asks me about the storm i tell what storm hahaha

[MaineJayhawk]

lol. It's a cyclone phase diagram based on the 18z GFS forecast of the low. It uses the modeled thermal wind and SR thickness symmetry to differentiate between cold and warm core and symmetric and asymmetric. Tropical systems are symmetric warm core, and extratropical cyclones are asymmetric cold core.

In this case, with rapid cyclogenesis occuring at the surface, the system develops a warm core as the surface low deepens quicker than the mid level low (thus the thickness between the two layers increases in the center of the storm). And the storm becomes vertically stacked, and sheds frontal boundarys, it becomes more symmetric, before dying. Pretty common evolution for this type of mid latitude ocean cyclogenesis.

Yeah, after my flip comment I took a longer look at it and got the gist of what was going on. Thanks for the lesson!

[Ginx snewx]

Actually, I'm quite confident that when he applies numbers to those categories tmw, that they will be from west to east: D-1", 1-3", 3-6", 4-8" (ME), 6-12" (Boston) and 12+ (CC)

Don S

Some early evening thoughts:

I still like the ECMWF ensemble mean track (very good continuity) and also the 12z GFS ensemble mean qpf idea. While I believe a blockbuster HECS is very unlikely, I do believe a moderate snowstorm of the 3"-6"/4"-8" variety (perhaps localized significant snowfall e.g., in parts of New England) remains on the table. I was happy to see the 18z GFS shift in that direction. I also believe that the idea of the 0.50" qpf line shifting further west, perhaps to a position near NYC and along the Jersey Shore has some possibility. Beyond this event, the next possible significant event will likely be a cutter in the 1/1-3 timeframe. Even as Ottawa and Toronto probably start as rain, both will probably end as snow. Ottawa has a chance to pick up a moderate snowfall.

[Damage In Tolland]

Don S

Some early evening thoughts:

I still like the ECMWF ensemble mean track (very good continuity) and also the 12z GFS ensemble mean qpf idea. While I believe a blockbuster HECS is very unlikely, I do believe a moderate snowstorm of the 3"-6"/4"-8" variety (perhaps localized significant snowfall e.g., in parts of New England) remains on the table. I was happy to see the 18z GFS shift in that direction. I also believe that the idea of the 0.50" qpf line shifting further west, perhaps to a position near NYC and along the Jersey Shore has some possibility. Beyond this event, the next possible significant event will likely be a cutter in the 1/1-3 timeframe. Even as Ottawa and Toronto probably start as rain, both will probably end as snow. Ottawa has a chance to pick up a moderate snowfall.

Guess he's not seeing the cold air damning ice signal on the Euro that Will and Scooter saw

[Baroclinic Zone]

Are bombing coastals prone to westward adjustments(jog)? I could have sworn I read or heard that somewhere.

[MaineJayhawk]

Don S

Some early evening thoughts:

I still like the ECMWF ensemble mean track (very good continuity) and also the 12z GFS ensemble mean qpf idea. While I believe a blockbuster HECS is very unlikely, I do believe a moderate snowstorm of the 3"-6"/4"-8" variety (perhaps localized significant snowfall e.g., in parts of New England) remains on the table. I was happy to see the 18z GFS shift in that direction. I also believe that the idea of the 0.50" qpf line shifting further west, perhaps to a position near NYC and along the Jersey Shore has some possibility. Beyond this event, the next possible significant event will likely be a cutter in the 1/1-3 timeframe. Even as Ottawa and Toronto probably start as rain, both will probably end as snow. Ottawa has a chance to pick up a moderate snowfall.

Glad to hear this. Will dive in weenie first if the 0z models tear my clothes off.

[Ginx snewx]

lol...979 on the ec ens mean.

LOL that's insane on ENS, buy supplies now?, got extra heat?

[snowNH]

Don S

Some early evening thoughts:

I still like the ECMWF ensemble mean track (very good continuity) and also the 12z GFS ensemble mean qpf idea. While I believe a blockbuster HECS is very unlikely, I do believe a moderate snowstorm of the 3"-6"/4"-8" variety (perhaps localized significant snowfall e.g., in parts of New England) remains on the table. I was happy to see the 18z GFS shift in that direction. I also believe that the idea of the 0.50" qpf line shifting further west, perhaps to a position near NYC and along the Jersey Shore has some possibility. Beyond this event, the next possible significant event will likely be a cutter in the 1/1-3 timeframe. Even as Ottawa and Toronto probably start as rain, both will probably end as snow. Ottawa has a chance to pick up a moderate snowfall.

Lets let Don S be wrong this time.... Bring on the HECS!

[codfishsnowman]

Before moving to wester ma..i lived in Bristol Ct for thirty years. The longest duration without a foot plus snow event was from after the Feb 83 storm to the Mar 93 super storm. A good ten years.

So I guess five to eight years for the ct valley from central ct to northampton area is not that unusual in between widespread foot plus events.

It has becoming alarming though over the past twenty or so years the number of big storms that have buried cape cod and the mid atlantic, while they have winters with little or no snow and miss a lot of the moderate events that inland areas recieve, it seems from washington dc right on up through cape cod stands much better chances at a crippling snow event ( 15 or more inches) and far far better chances of an honest two foot event. Areas nw of the valley...nw of northampton over to the litchfield hills.berks and CD also seem to stand much better chances of giant snow events over the long term. Something about this area in between that just seems to miss. Also seems like with the exception of last Dec storm...se ct and south coast of RI before newport also often misses the really big dumps.

One more thing..this pattern we are in now with the stale maritime air from that week long storm to our ne is eerily reminiscent of last years pattern, grotesque if you ask me. If this is the way winter is gonna roll i would just rather have nice weather and temps in the forties and occasional rain storms, it is late December and it is very possible that we escape this month without any accum snow!

[DomNH]

Lets let Don S be wrong this time.... Bring on the moderate snowfall!

Yeah, that's more realistic. And nice at the same time.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Lets let Don S be wrong this time.... Bring on the HECS!

i thought you bailed on this one? you said so like 10 times over the last 24 hours.

[DomNH]

i thought you bailed on this one? you said so like 10 times over the last 24 hours.

NAM and GFS look similar, it's OVAHHH.

[MaineJayhawk]

i thought you bailed on this one? you said so like 10 times over the last 24 hours.

When NAM greases the sheets in an hour he'll bail for the 11th time.

[Boston-winter08]

NAM and GFS look similar, it's OVAHHH.

[WeatherX]

Are bombing coastals prone to westward adjustments(jog)? I could have sworn I read or heard that somewhere.

To an extent..... but more towards the Northeast They act almost as a gyroscope (spinning against gravity) with their motion to a certain latitude and get flung to the northeast here at our latitude due to gravitational pull...