radarman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 GFS is an out and out blizzard for most of the CT river valley....18Z/23. I'm out....lots bums to kick and disabled children to make fun of....good luck guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Unless we probably see some significant changes with where the trough axis sets up I think we can pretty much forget any significant totals here in CT...even a more moderate event might be hard to get for most. if i lived in new england, i would bet 5 cases of beer on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 cmon paul...it's only Thursday. I know...but this is just one feature that we really have not seen change much at all with any of the model runs...pretty much all the models have been very consistent on this occurring, even DT has began to worry a bit about the ridge/trough axis placement. He mentioned he thought this was something that may have been overcome by ridging out over the western Atlantic but thinks he might be wrong on that, As different as we've seen the models with regards to s/w timing, phasing, s/w strength, etc the one thing they all virtually agree on is ridge/trough axis. Having these features shifted west a bit would also allow for an earlier phase which would help to ensure a clsoer track along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 NCEP: "Based on the reactions from the 12z runs, I think we're going to lose viewers for the 18z. We gotta put some juice into it for this one to draw them back in a little longer" Very nearly IDENTICAL to the 06z GFS. Just a little SE and MUCH stronger. In case anyone is wondering, thats a 954mb low at hr96! What a temptation. It's like watching Natalie Portman and Mila Kunis make out in Black Swan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Nice occlusion warm core at 90, that sudden jog ENE is a culprit for NH but that will adjust and smooth. Looks pretty close to what I portrayed earlier, expect QPF to be better handled later with still tremendous Atlantic inflow and slowed speed. Great run very strongly agree with first part IF the general theme is continued and slowed speed = awesome call the front end loaders and tell them turn around and head back JIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 if i lived in new england, i would bet 5 cases of beer on this make it eastern New England I think as of now eastern New England certainly stands the best chance at getting hit fairly hard by this, if I lived out that way I'd be very excited right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Unless we probably see some significant changes with where the trough axis sets up I think we can pretty much forget any significant totals here in CT...even a more moderate event might be hard to get for most. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Fore sure. I think you and Phil look a lot better than me and Kev now, however. Luckily I'm not in Western New Eng Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Que kevin's chair and rope I think i will do decent on this one in W. framingham but i do believe i will be hanging out in bridgewater ma sunday nite. Now let's get this thing to slow more. He didnt say anything about rain, but everything else was verbatim. He expects from what I could tell this to be a SE NE deal with some CP involvement. I'm out too until much later. It's great to see consensus building around the BM. I think a hook track is on the table we see the models do this where they "slide" NE in time...bomb off NC, bomb off NJ, eventually the bomb is off the Cape or in the GOM. It was great to see the 18z suite tilt towards a more severe solution which means the 12z was probably the east outlier. Now we just need to see 0h and 6h at 0z not off by 200 miles! Have fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Next Over running after the New Years torch......SWFE event on paper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Way premature He said the rest of the coastal plain may be in decent shape but that amounts will fall back very quickly into NE CT where it may change to rain due to intensity. Yo Cat watch who you include. SNH NORH guys, deform band is usually NW of progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Luckily I'm not in Western New Eng you'll hate that soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 you'll hate that soon... Ha! You beat me to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Next Over running after the New Years torch......SWFE event on paper? do you enjoy talking to yourself....off topic at that. are you related to zucker? but with less analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yo Cat watch who you include. SNH NORH guys, deform band is usually NW of progs. Gin just to be clear he didn't say that. 18z NOGAPs is still a big miss but it came way west again, the track cone is really tightening now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Ha! You beat me to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Luckily I'm not in Western New Eng So if the models showed a crushing for western New England you would be lucky you don't live in eastern New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Ryan, what are your thoughts on a good 4-8 snow in connecticut from this system.It seems we have been on the edge for the most part and looks like thats not going to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 So if the models showed a crushing for western New England you would be lucky you don't live in eastern New England? he's in the hood South central Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 do you enjoy talking to yourself....off topic at that. This one is over.....except for far eastern areas. I'm looking forward to January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It's too bad this southern stream S/W isn't digging just a little more because it would tap the Gulf and convective explosion would pump some latent heat immediately down stream and feedback on building west Atlantic heights enough to bump it all west while also being very intense like the runs from a couple days ago and how often have we seen systems get lost in this time range only to charge back in the short term so all the grousing would have looked as stupid and wasteful as it really was all along.... How's that for a run-on sentence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 So if the models showed a crushing for western New England you would be lucky you don't live in eastern New England? NE CT is not western New England. Like Will said about an hour ago..A BM track gives me good snows..just not jackpot...It's that simple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Gin just to be clear he didn't say that. . duh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 NE CT is not western New England. Like Will said about an hour ago..A BM track gives me good snows..just not jackpot...It's that simple The 18z GFS verbatim would be very kind to you, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I think it's a matter of the expansiveness of the precip field...this track isn't bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This one is over.....except for far eastern areas. I'm looking forward to January... hibernate until then. bye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I think we stand in a good place here in ESNE. The most extremely se solutions gave us healthy amounts via OES. I will lock in plowable for the majority of the eastern box cwa. Models are fluctuating between a bomb and outside the benchmark cape burier. Using the tools of forecasting like don mentioned would lead one to be confident in sne experiencing adverse conditions in the eastern portions of sne. Where would I want to be right now? Probably ideally taunton ma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 hibernate until then. bye. Im fed up with posts like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 hibernate until then. bye. LOL...kid yourself then.....you don't want bad news? Neither do I....it will all even out at some point this winter, I think.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Im fed up with posts like that with what? Mine? I'm fed up with people saying "this one is over" when there's still days left before the threat and obvious wiggle room for this thing to go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.