The Post Christmas storm threat is still vey real

[codfishsnowman]

It's been since 2/2006 since I've had over a foot from 1 storm.

and what is really important to constantly say about that storm is that it was only a big hit for the hartford and eastern portions of the springfield metro area...just north of chicopee the snow amounts tappered to a couple inches for northampton and i think the same or even less up in greenfield. widespread over a foot of snow goes back to pd2 2003 for the area of hartford to brattelboro.

[ROOSTA]

I'm appalled at such an exhibition of childish BS displayed today. Goes beyond reaching new lows and quite frankly worse than what the chatrooms produce during radio shows. Give me the days of five years ago when you had quality.

I've stated this countless times. MODELS are TOOLS. There is no control over choas. I wish people would read more and post less. Simply shameful and has absolutely ruined the idea of starting anew.

I have a Proposal.

How about a thread to which only Professional Forecasters and Mets can reply and comment in?

I'm OUT!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Close in? We're almost 4 days away and it's the NAM.. WTF is wrong with people?

I wish folks would stop killing people for percieving trends.

I still expect a mod soloution for eastern MA, maybe high impact for CC, but there is still room for this to trend much bigger over the eastern half of the area....east trend is done.

I like something similar to the 12z EURO.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Then do it.Final call

I did a couple of days ago, and yesterday and today. I said I liked this map for the .5" line but 20 miles NW. Depending on the later runs I'd probably run with this map for MA/CT/RI in terms of placement of the heavier/.5" QPF for now.

I think the storm tracks outside of the BM but there's still the possiblity it ends up on a curling trajectory at that point.

I could wait another 45 minutes and have the benefit of the rest of the 18z suite but it really won't change the thought anyway.

This may change, but I figure at least .000001% of the posts here should at least be thoughts on what may happen.

[Organizing Low]

WOW

i just got in and looked at the 12z euro panels for myself

for fooks sakes, going by this thread you would have thought the storm is out over newfoundland

you gotta 968mb low east of boston and people in this thread are bridge jumping?

i know its been a tough year for snow, but cmon, how anyone could be jumping off the bridge with a 968 low in their backyward.....id be doing goddamn cartwheels if i saw that.

qpf? who cares about qpf.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The emotional insanity of this thread is unmatched Would make sense if not for us still being 78 hours out.

Safe to say this isn't going to be epic, but this isn't done by a long shot; last week should of taught us something after what transipred on CC.

[mattb65]

I wish folks would stop killing people for percieving trends.

I still expect a mod soloution for eastern MA, maybe high impact for CC, but there is still room for this to trend much bigger over the eastern half of the area....east trend is done.

I like something similar to the 12z EURO.

Much more optimistic than earlier today

Your early 3-8" call without changes despite the crazy solutions may end up right on.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Messenger, you and I have been on the same page all along.

[skierinvermont]

EC ensembles look pretty close.. how far from the benchmark? I've only got 24hr increments

[snowNH]

EC ensembles look pretty close.. how far from the benchmark? I've only got 24hr increments

maybe 100 yards

[40/70 Benchmark]

Much more optimistic than earlier today

Your early 3-8" call without changes despite the crazy solutions may end up right on.

I understand why that maybe interpreted as "optimism", but it's simply objectivity.....just like when folks accuse me of being "negative"...it's just honestly and realistically what I think.

It's partly my fault because it's tough to weed out when I am serious and when I'm not because of the fits I throw, but......

[skierinvermont]

I think so...we need that piece of energy to be faster and the initial southern stream trough to be a bit slower so they can phase earlier in the game. I think one reason the ECM had so many big hits was because its bias towards slowing down the southern stream allowed the more potent northern stream energy to catch up in time and cause the trough to acquire negative tilt. This doesn't seem to be happening anymore because the southern stream is moving too fast off the coast while the main energy for our coastal is stuck in Manitoba.

The heck with the southern stream, there was a lot of noise in the nrn stream with vorts everywhere, and this causes a broad trough. I don't put much blame in the srn stream at all.

Agree with coastalwx.. I think the Euro was actually right about the slow ss. The GFS was way too fast. The problem has been getting the northern stream to interact in the right way

[Ginx snewx]

I did a couple of days ago, and yesterday and today. I said I liked this map for the .5" line but 20 miles NW. Depending on the later runs I'd probably run with this map for MA/CT/RI in terms of placement of the heavier/.5" QPF for now.

I think the storm tracks outside of the BM but there's still the possiblity it ends up on a curling trajectory at that point.

I could wait another 45 minutes and have the benefit of the rest of the 18z suite but it really won't change the thought anyway.

This may change, but I figure at least .000001% of the posts here should at least be thoughts on what may happen.

I agree with you to an extennt, sat on the sidelines today watching the drama queens, pretty silly but anyway I digress. I said yesterday this ends up being a typical Noreaster only more intense with wind. I stand by that and so lets say 3-6 West of Ct River cept for Berks 8, 6-10 from HVN to ORH 8-12+ Taunton Bob to Ray, Maine guys 6-10 , interior NH 3-6.

I see an expansive inflow still. My call for now although too early you asked for it. East trend over ticks back west, still room for the extreme bombogenesis slow mover.

[WeatherX]

EC ensembles look pretty close.. how far from the benchmark? I've only got 24hr increments

Swing and a miss...east of the Benchmark...a few flakes, maybe

[ctsnowstorm628]

I agree with you to an extennt, sat on the sidelines today watching the drama queens, pretty silly but anyway I digress. I said yesterday this ends up being a typical Noreaster only more intense with wind. I stand by that and so lets say 3-6 West of Ct River cept for Berks 8, 6-10 from HVN to ORH 8-12+ Taunton Bob to Ray, Maine guys 6-10 , interior NH 3-6.

I see an expansive inflow still. My call for now although too early you asked for it. East trend over ticks back west, still room for the extreme bombogenesis slow mover.

wayyyy too ealy to be talking amounts, but id take that any day!

[nutmegfriar]

I agree with you to an extennt, sat on the sidelines today watching the drama queens, pretty silly but anyway I digress. I said yesterday this ends up being a typical Noreaster only more intense with wind. I stand by that and so lets say 3-6 West of Ct River cept for Berks 8, 6-10 from HVN to ORH 8-12+ Taunton Bob to Ray, Maine guys 6-10 , interior NH 3-6.

I see an expansive inflow still. My call for now although too early you asked for it. East trend over ticks back west, still room for the extreme bombogenesis slow mover.

Any P-type issues on the CT shore?

[Wx4cast]

I did a couple of days ago, and yesterday and today. I said I liked this map for the .5" line but 20 miles NW. Depending on the later runs I'd probably run with this map for MA/CT/RI in terms of placement of the heavier/.5" QPF for now.

I think the storm tracks outside of the BM but there's still the possiblity it ends up on a curling trajectory at that point.

I could wait another 45 minutes and have the benefit of the rest of the 18z suite but it really won't change the thought anyway.

This may change, but I figure at least .000001% of the posts here should at least be thoughts on what may happen.

Well, "mixing" is not an option.

[ctsnowstorm628]

Swing and a miss...east of the Benchmark...a few flakes, maybe

since when? i heard they were slightly NW of the OP...

[Kbosch]

I understand why that maybe interpreted as "optimism", but it's simply objectivity.....just like when folks accuse me of being "negative"...it's just honestly and realistically what I think.

It's partly my fault because it's tough to weed out when I am serious and when I'm not because of the fits I throw, but......

You have been remarkably objective. It amuses me that you're now called "optimistic" when 24 hours ago that sort of talk would be outlandish pessimism. What you are saying has not changed; rather it is classified differently in relative terms to what the models are showing, good then and bad now. Great job keeping a steady mind about this.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Messenger, you and I have been on the same page all along.

Pretty much, not much deviation although I'll reserve the right to do so. If I had to put a map out right now I'd shift it SE at least some with the thought it can easily be bounced NW at this range.. I just felt the EC was out to lunch with the mega low(s) it had to our WSW/SSW. I think the EC Ens as Will has said is right along the median. It may shift from here but we have the probable end solution now within sight. My guess is the track within 25-50 miles of the BM has about a 50% chance of coming to fruition, a track west of that maybe 15% and a track east 35%.

As far as the other stuff goes, I agree with ARL but will say that the main threads are heavily moderated by Randy (he's done a great job IMO) and others when it comes to model discussion. Baiting of pro forecasters (ct rain) and the rest using thread titles...it's all fun and games but it's silly especially when it misrepresents what people are saying. People forget this is their livelihoods.

What was there to be so uptight about today? The GFS Ens is decent, the EC and EC ens decent. The GGEM ens came west, nogaps west, jma west, NAM looks much better at 18z. Yet all the bridge jumping because the 940mb low that wiped out half the east coast isn't coming back? Wow!

[40/70 Benchmark]

I agree with you to an extennt, sat on the sidelines today watching the drama queens, pretty silly but anyway I digress. I said yesterday this ends up being a typical Noreaster only more intense with wind. I stand by that and so lets say 3-6 West of Ct River cept for Berks 8, 6-10 from HVN to ORH 8-12+ Taunton Bob to Ray, Maine guys 6-10 , interior NH 3-6.

I see an expansive inflow still. My call for now although too early you asked for it. East trend over ticks back west, still room for the extreme bombogenesis slow mover.

You're a bit more bullish than I am, but I think what you are saying is still within the upper echelon of plausiblity; I agree we could see a tic back west.....but right now, I'll hold the course for 3-8", here.

[WeatherX]

since when? i heard they were slightly NW of the OP...

Take the 12Z GFS OP track and superimpose...

[ctsnowstorm628]

You're a bit more bullish than I am, but I think what you are saying is still within the upper echelon of plausiblity; I agree we could see a tic back west.....but right now, I'll hold the course for 3-8", here.

whats your call for other parts of SNE

[ctsnowstorm628]

Take the 12Z GFS OP track and superimpose...

i thought you were talking about the EC ens...

[skierinvermont]

Take the 12Z GFS OP track and superimpose...

EC ensemble mean is slightly west of and deeper than the 12z gfs op

[weathafella]

Take the 12Z GFS OP track and superimpose...

Will was shocked in that the mean was almost right over the BM...as he stated...a 9 iron east perhaps. You seeing something different?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I agree with you to an extennt, sat on the sidelines today watching the drama queens, pretty silly but anyway I digress. I said yesterday this ends up being a typical Noreaster only more intense with wind. I stand by that and so lets say 3-6 West of Ct River cept for Berks 8, 6-10 from HVN to ORH 8-12+ Taunton Bob to Ray, Maine guys 6-10 , interior NH 3-6.

I see an expansive inflow still. My call for now although too early you asked for it. East trend over ticks back west, still room for the extreme bombogenesis slow mover.

Going back to something you brought up last night; the intensity of the storm can make a difference with movements back west.

One kink is what Will said about how the storm gets to the BM - a wide hook is not great. So let's hope it gets there a little more direct route.

However, don't really big storms with sub 980 pressures, like this is modeled to be, have the ability to make some of their own rules despite the theoretical musings of the models? Meaning variables in the atmosphere that the models don't necessarily pick up on because of the intense low pressure. As it blows up can it effect a sharper trough formation?

[40/70 Benchmark]

You have been remarkably objective. It amuses me that you're now called "optimistic" when 24 hours ago that sort of talk would be outlandish pessimism. What you are saying has not changed; rather it is classified differently in relative terms to what the models are showing, good then and bad now. Great job keeping a steady mind about this.

Well, trust me....I would have melted down today were I not working, but once I cooled off and accepted the fact that what I had hoped for was now unlikely, it became possible to view thinks objectively again.

My problem is that I have too much time on my hands right now and don't step away from here enough; if I did, I think I'd make much more valuable contributions.

I have always figured 3-8", but make no mistake about....I was dying for 2'+.

[Kbosch]

EC ensemble mean is slightly west of and deeper than the 12z gfs op

And they came west from the 00z ensembles by a bit.

[skierinvermont]

GFS is a good bit slower with the ss.. wonder what that will do