The Post Christmas storm threat is still vey real

[ORH_wxman]

The ensembles are similar to the op..maybe a bit faster. Just a hair east and faster than 06z. This storm is hauling.

I like the look of the pressure field a lot better...the OP run was a bit elongated N to S...the pressure field on the ens mean looks a lot healthier.

[CoastalWx]

The ensembles are similar to the op..maybe a bit faster. Just a hair east and faster than 06z. This storm is hauling.

I guess the good news is that they seem deeper with the trough, so a few members seem west.

[wxsniss]

I echoed those sentiments in that post a moment ago...

Trouble is, you are not going to be able to reach the masses on this because 'the masses' do not really posess the analytical approach to a given model run. It's a deterministic snap shot in their mind, and the buck stops there.

That is why there is such palbable to point of almost maddening observation of yo-yooing emotions. 2 faults there that compound one another: 1) investing personal or emotional stock in 'whether or not you get a storm' is insanity, period; but failing number 1, ...2) then to not posess the native ability to be analytical you've lost your only hope to restore any stability to the former failure. It's a deadly closed circuit where you are forever enslaved to the whims of modeling - it makes one sick really when you think how creepy that is.

I looked at the 12z guidance and thought interesting, looks like this thing is still on docket as an EC concern - amazing to have so many days to have followed this. Then I happened to check out this thread and sure enough, just because model x-y-z showed whatever...

the architect

[OKpowdah]

[CoastalWx]

I like the look of the pressure field a lot better...the OP run was a bit elongated N to S...the pressure field on the ens mean looks a lot healthier.

Yeah I just commented on that...must be some westerly members there giving it an elongated more west-east look.

[Logan11]

What more can you say... At that point in the game I think you'd want a neutral tilt trof through about Chicago and what you have is a trough that is still positive tilt through about Detroit. Which requires the old Euro hail mary pass for most people on the East Coast. But could still work for SE NE.

It's in line with the others:

[weatherwiz]

I echoed those sentiments in that post a moment ago...

Trouble is, you are not going to be able to reach the masses on this because 'the masses' do not really posess the analytical approach to a given model run. It's a deterministic snap shot in their mind, and the buck stops there.

That is why there is such palbable to point of almost maddening observation of yo-yooing emotions. 2 faults there that compound one another: 1) investing personal or emotional stock in 'whether or not you get a storm' is insanity, period; but failing number 1, ...2) then to not posess the native ability to be analytical you've lost your only hope to restore any stability to the former failure. It's a deadly closed circuit where you are forever enslaved to the whims of modeling - it makes one sick really when you think how creepy that is.

I looked at the 12z guidance and thought interesting, looks like this thing is still on docket as an EC concern - amazing to have so many days to have followed this. Then I happened to check out this thread and sure enough, just because model x-y-z showed whatever...

Another excellent post and definitely agreed with. I gandered that same thing when looking at the 12z NAM/GFS, looked very interesting and maybe while visually it didn't look appealing if you just look at model closely you can see that this is indeed very close to happening, just one subtle difference in phasing alone will have HUGE implications on what plays out. There is alot going on here and each model is going to handle things a bit differently and were going to see some different solutions until we get a bit closer and everything is more accurately sampled and we start seeing exactly how the ridge in the west is going to shape up.

[Cold Miser]

I just saw the image posted by Amarshall and I almost coughed my stomach on to my monitor I was laughing so hard.

. . . Guys (and girls). All we can do at this point is take a bunch of computer generated model runs for what they're worth. If, in the end we don't get the big score, then we just move on. I'm just as bad as the next guy when it comes to getting upset about this stuff, especially when it doesn't pan out in the end (which seems to be more often than not these days).

With that being said, I can understand how people's emotions can go from high to low within a short period of time. Knee jerk reactions to the highs and lows are part of the deal, and always will be. Unless there's personal attacks on individuals, I don't see the reason to ban folks. I enjoy reading all kinds of posts from the good to the bad. In the one dimensional world of internet forums, I can learn much about a person's personality from reading a few lines, or seeing an off the cuff image or two.

[skierinvermont]

ggem is way east

[Wx4cast]

The ensembles are similar to the op..maybe a bit faster. Just a hair east and faster than 06z. This storm is hauling.

Per H250 winds on the anomaly data

I like the look of the pressure field a lot better...the OP run was a bit elongated N to S...the pressure field on the ens mean looks a lot healthier.

Me too, still like ELI and SENE getting something out of this.

I guess the good news is that they seem deeper with the trough, so a few members seem west.

looks like 2 more than the 06z and 00z runs had nice to see some more members trending this way.

[CoastalWx]

I echoed those sentiments in that post a moment ago...

Trouble is, you are not going to be able to reach the masses on this because 'the masses' do not really posess the analytical approach to a given model run. It's a deterministic snap shot in their mind, and the buck stops there.

That is why there is such palbable to point of almost maddening observation of yo-yooing emotions. 2 faults there that compound one another: 1) investing personal or emotional stock in 'whether or not you get a storm' is insanity, period; but failing number 1, ...2) then to not posess the native ability to be analytical you've lost your only hope to restore any stability to the former failure. It's a deadly closed circuit where you are forever enslaved to the whims of modeling - it makes one sick really when you think how creepy that is.

I looked at the 12z guidance and thought interesting, looks like this thing is still on docket as an EC concern - amazing to have so many days to have followed this. Then I happened to check out this thread and sure enough, just because model x-y-z showed whatever...

You know how it is, these solutions capture weenies and then they go on to bash an op model that was wrong with a d6 solution..lol. That's why we have ensembles.

I can't complain about the 12z ensembles...still not a bad position. We'll see what the euro does.

[Guvna]

Another excellent post and definitely agreed with. I gandered that same thing when looking at the 12z NAM/GFS, looked very interesting and maybe while visually it didn't look appealing if you just look at model closely you can see that this is indeed very close to happening, just one subtle difference in phasing alone will have HUGE implications on what plays out. There is alot going on here and each model is going to handle things a bit differently and were going to see some different solutions until we get a bit closer and everything is more accurately sampled and we start seeing exactly how the ridge in the west is going to shape up.

Holy run-on sentence!!!! I couldn't agree wih you more WIZZY. Still plenty of time to watch things unfold...

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I echoed those sentiments in that post a moment ago...

Trouble is, you are not going to be able to reach the masses on this because 'the masses' do not really posess the analytical approach to a given model run. It's a deterministic snap shot in their mind, and the buck stops there.

That is why there is such palbable to point of almost maddening observation of yo-yooing emotions. 2 faults there that compound one another: 1) investing personal or emotional stock in 'whether or not you get a storm' is insanity, period; but failing number 1, ...2) then to not posess the native ability to be analytical you've lost your only hope to restore any stability to the former failure. It's a deadly closed circuit where you are forever enslaved to the whims of modeling - it makes one sick really when you think how creepy that is.

I looked at the 12z guidance and thought interesting, looks like this thing is still on docket as an EC concern - amazing to have so many days to have followed this. Then I happened to check out this thread and sure enough, just because model x-y-z showed whatever...

And likewise the closed circuit exists with those that assume just because a model is discussed in a storm thread it's an all out endorsement of said model. Truth be told it wouldn't matter if it was the EC that came in at 930 am and was a miss or the NAM, it's the frustration that models aren't coming around to show the major hit that rears its ugly head.

For those of you that fully believe(d) the EC none of this should matter. If you're practicing what is preached who really cares what Joe in Montana is thinking? I don't understand why there is so much concern about a model discussion influencing the masses as if there will be riots in the streets as a result.

I don't understand why there is so much concern about discussing models, positive or negative in a model discussion thread.

And it isn't model xyz that showed a miss, it's model x, model y, modelz z, and model b

Still plenty of time but let's not confuse people discussing models as anything more than what it is. I think personal dissapointment or frustration plays just as big a role.

[ORH_wxman]

You know how it is, these solutions capture weenies and then they go on to bash an op model that was wrong with a d6 solution..lol. That's why we have ensembles.

I can't complain about the 12z ensembles...still not a bad position. We'll see what the euro does.

We always see this issue early on in the winter...its usually not until we get our first decent event that we start seeing less focus on 144 hour solutions. But right now, we are still waiting for our first decent event, so people are just dying for it to happen....and latch onto day 6 model progs. There's a reason some of us don't really get that excited until inside of 3-4 days.

That said, I don't think there is any more reason to panic over the 12z suite than there was to get excited yesterday. If the Euro comes in terrible, then we might have to start thinking about a non-event, but even then, we've seen these types of runs before 72-96 hours out, only to have it come back the very next sequence.

[skierinvermont]

It sort of worries me how all the other models have come into a general agreement on a more rounded trough and lower heights in the east since the 00z cycle. DT does have a point about the ECM and the ECM ens mean, but that is from 00z and the other models have gone east and come into better agreement since then. We're at the whim of the 12z ecm, if it holds the recent trends in other models don't mean nearly as much. I don't bail until the euro does.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I guess the good news is that they seem deeper with the trough, so a few members seem west.

Doesn't seem unreasonable. It's about at this point that the OP runs seem to make their furthest run east before sliding back west in time.

Not that it matters but the GGEM is heading towards the awful NOGAPS.

[MainePhotog]

I echoed those sentiments in that post a moment ago...

Trouble is, you are not going to be able to reach the masses on this because 'the masses' do not really posess the analytical approach to a given model run. It's a deterministic snap shot in their mind, and the buck stops there.

That is why there is such palbable to point of almost maddening observation of yo-yooing emotions. 2 faults there that compound one another: 1) investing personal or emotional stock in 'whether or not you get a storm' is insanity, period; but failing number 1, ...2) then to not posess the native ability to be analytical you've lost your only hope to restore any stability to the former failure. It's a deadly closed circuit where you are forever enslaved to the whims of modeling - it makes one sick really when you think how creepy that is.

I looked at the 12z guidance and thought interesting, looks like this thing is still on docket as an EC concern - amazing to have so many days to have followed this. Then I happened to check out this thread and sure enough, just because model x-y-z showed whatever...

A wonderful voice of reason among the mass gnashing of teeth and end of the world banter.

[CoastalWx]

We always see this issue early on in the winter...its usually not until we get our first decent event that we start seeing less focus on 144 hour solutions. But right now, we are still waiting for our first decent event, so people are just dying for it to happen....and latch onto day 6 model progs. There's a reason some of us don't really get that excited until inside of 3-4 days.

That said, I don't think there is any more reason to panic over the 12z suite than there was to get excited yesterday. If the Euro comes in terrible, then we might have to start thinking about a non-event, but even then, we've seen these types of runs before 72-96 hours out, only to have it come back the very next sequence.

I know people are itching, but it takes years off the lives people when they are disappointed...and then you get these verbal brawls and passive aggression that happens. I think you said ti best a couple of months ago...that weather will do what it wants to do. I could care less what op models show beyond 96 hrs. Of course I'm excited if it shows a good hit inside d5, but I remember all the fails that have happened in that time range too.

With that, lets see what the euro has. So far there is decent agreement just outside the BM, which isn't all that bad at d4. If the euro moves east by 100 miles..then maybe we have some concern. I was actually thinking the ensembles were going to look worse, so I took that as almost a positive.

[weathafella]

Well hopefully the Euro can come in and knock some sense into people....or let them give it up. I just don't know what to think as each of the other globals have been variable and the Euro has been very consistent around a narrow envelope.

[HoarfrostHubb]

We always see this issue early on in the winter...its usually not until we get our first decent event that we start seeing less focus on 144 hour solutions. But right now, we are still waiting for our first decent event, so people are just dying for it to happen....and latch onto day 6 model progs. There's a reason some of us don't really get that excited until inside of 3-4 days.

That said, I don't think there is any more reason to panic over the 12z suite than there was to get excited yesterday. If the Euro comes in terrible, then we might have to start thinking about a non-event, but even then, we've seen these types of runs before 72-96 hours out, only to have it come back the very next sequence.

Thank you for the voice of reason.

Even if it winds up too east, it should be a great storm to watch.

[H2Otown_WX]

This is making me sick...can't we just have a run-of-the-mill SWFE and be done with it?

[moneypitmike]

Looks like P01 and P09 show some possibily.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

quoted from an HPC forecaster RE bias "If you look over any individual's forecast over a series of weeks, months, or years, you will notice a bias, whether it is in regards to the choice is of a particular model or pair of models or towards certain solutions for their backyard, whether extreme in impact or not. The bias could be always going for consensus. We all have them. Just search older discussions if you want to know if an individual forecast has any sort of bias. The key to recognizing biases is to see if any individual forecaster is just emphasizing positives (in this case the most menacing possible solution), or is actually weighing both the positives and the negatives for either a certain meteorological event, or per your first question, a certain piece of model guidance."

[Kbosch]

Well hopefully the Euro can come in and knock some sense into people....or let them give it up. I just don't know what to think as each of the other globals have been variable and the Euro has been very consistent around a narrow envelope.

Very much so. Traditionally this would be a Euro is the king situation and everyone would feel fine, or at least OK. However, the two run hiccup last time around has put fear into the heart of weenies. I think that is the major problem at the moment. We'll see if it is unfounded or not by next Tuesday.

[weatherwiz]

I know people are itching, but it takes years off the lives people when they are disappointed...and then you get these verbal brawls and passive aggression that happens. I think you said ti best a couple of months ago...that weather will do what it wants to do. I could care less what op models show beyond 96 hrs. Of course I'm excited if it shows a good hit inside d5, but I remember all the fails that have happened in that time range too.

With that, lets see what the euro has. So far there is decent agreement just outside the BM, which isn't all that bad at d4. If the euro moves east by 100 miles..then maybe we have some concern. I was actually thinking the ensembles were worse, so I took that as almost a positive.

If the Euro does happen to come in further east than I would definitely think that is a cause for at least some concern but until the euro comes in my entire stance on this potential has not really changed. I prefer to wait until the entire set of models come out before making an opinion...not really a good idea to change your thoughts or base your thoughts until you have reviewed everything. If the Euro continues to hold steady I will continue to feel on the confident side.

[snowNH]

Well hopefully the Euro can come in and knock some sense into people....or let them give it up. I just don't know what to think as each of the other globals have been variable and the Euro has been very consistent around a narrow envelope.

I think because of last storm when the Euro was wrong, even if this comes in as a hit people will still be suspect.

I really don't like that the GGEM, Ukie, NAM, and GFS aren't a hit.

[klw]

I blame this thread.

And Bob Boone.( As a Reds fans it is always Bob Boone's fault).

[radarman]

Somebody mentioned a few threads back how two models could take totally different paths and arrive at the same sensible wx solution.

Similarly, two events can have major synoptic differences, but somehow arrive at similar sensible wx.

Last week's event is having a direct effect on today. The Euro Ens were showing a blizzard for all of SNE at hour 96. To be fair to the weenies, and that includes me probably, we weren't going crazy over a day 6-7 event. That night the 0z shifted well offshore, and never corrected itself to see the foot that the cape ended up getting.

So once again, the best model in the world is showing a significant snowstorm inside 100 hours, but has little support globally. If last week didn't happen, most would not be freaking out quite so much. Not going out too far on a limb here to say the forecast I'd go with right now is much like the last event. A cape cod, se mass special. I said three days ago I'd sign for 2" and I'd still do it. Funny thing is, really nothing is the same in the set up except one thing... the massive 50/50 low.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I know people are itching, but it takes years off the lives people when they are disappointed...and then you get these verbal brawls and passive aggression that happens. I think you said ti best a couple of months ago...that weather will do what it wants to do. I could care less what op models show beyond 96 hrs. Of course I'm excited if it shows a good hit inside d5, but I remember all the fails that have happened in that time range too.

With that, lets see what the euro has. So far there is decent agreement just outside the BM, which isn't all that bad at d4. If the euro moves east by 100 miles..then maybe we have some concern. I was actually thinking the ensembles were going to look worse, so I took that as almost a positive.

The problem is there's a huge disconnect for most in not understanding what is modeled outside of 96/102 may or may not have any basis in reality.

If all of these models shut off at 102 hrs and we never saw these epic EC/GGEM bombs would the dissapointment be nearly as high right now, no way. The moment people see those an expectation is set mentally and it's downhill from there. It reveals itself in every run when there are constant comparisons to the most favorable storm run. As one pro met said on the other thread if indeed the OP EC folds on this event we will hear how it's still the best model and probably is statistically. But the days of it being a pretty good lock at 96-110ish are seemingly gone for at least now....again pending the 12z.

The SE 1/3 of NE still looks good for the biggest threat, maybe folding down to the SE 1/4 which would essentially be parts of downeast and E/SE MASS pending the EC.

[ORH_wxman]

Somebody mentioned a few threads back how two models could take totally different paths and arrive at the same sensible wx solution.

Similarly, two events can have major synoptic differences, but somehow arrive at similar sensible wx.

Last week's event is having a direct effect on today. The Euro Ens were showing a blizzard for all of SNE at hour 96. To be fair to the weenies, and that includes me probably, we weren't going crazy over a day 6-7 event. That night the 0z shifted well offshore, and never corrected itself to see the foot that the cape ended up getting.

So once again, the best model in the world is showing a significant snowstorm inside 100 hours, but has little support globally. If last week didn't happen, most would not be freaking out quite so much. Not going out too far on a limb here to say the forecast I'd go with right now is much like the last event. A cape cod, se mass special. I said three days ago I'd sign for 2" and I'd still do it. Funny thing is, really nothing is the same in the set up except one thing... the massive 50/50 low.

The Euro solution last week was technically inside 100 hours but barely. And it had very little continuity on that solution. It had two runs that showed it...one just outside of 100 hours and one just inside. It was gone next run.

But that event had been tracked on the GFS since D7.