metagraphica Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Its funny just following these threads and not actually posting. Everyone was happy and cheerful yesterday because of a few good model runs. Now today everyone is ready to put their fist through their monitor because of some bad model runs. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if tomorrow its the complete opposite again. Agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Ok ... haven't looked at maps, just checking in here ... mobile and busy. Not a disaster yet, though I suspect Doc steps east. I like where we are right now actually, earlier yesterday we could not get this storm north of the benchmark, Its not far from a significant Nor'easter, I don't care for a KU storm because they never really play out here, Give me 4-8,6-12 and i am fine with that........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Come on guys...this thread is starting to get derailed pretty badly. No need for what's going on the past few pages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Can we PLEASE limit the use of the term "KU"? It doesn't just refer to a big snow storm. Half of the references I see are incorrect. New England can get demolished in a non-KU event. In fact, most of those cases are near misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 At least its not torching outside, just be thankful that we will get some snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 12z NAM appears to be a hiccup run and doesn’t fit anything leading up to – toss it beyond 48 hours. NCEP discusses the NAM odd behavior with some of the mass fields in the MV/TV region; thus enters all kinds of contention/suspicion in how this run is handling this complex phasing. The 06z was a dandy in regards to best fit – I’d go with that one, extrapolate. The Euro model was stallwart on quick bombogen and moderate impact in the MA, ranging to moderate/major further up the coast; has a much better continuity aloft over successive runs - to boot, a superior score - to discount an 84 hour would be unwise given that the run fits so well with mass field evolution. The GFS appears to have weakened the northern stream input into the phase; I'd be surprised if the 12z Euro rolled in with that and I suspect this is the last turd run of the GFS before it finally capitulates to the Euro... 18z/00z thereabouts. Teleconnections still very much support this event. These 12z American runs are just behaving oddly rather suddenly - not impressed without continuity. Re the extended - it is intriguing to see the Pac jet punch across the NW/N tier states that way- it's what stops this from lingering. This is rather new across the last 2 cycles of the GFS and ECM, and it makes it very uncertain what is in store beyond this first more widespread winter storm. The PNA as CPC is forecast to at last go positive, but it is still rather blasse-neutral looking at CDC. This Pac invasion of these deterministic runs does not fit the CDC/CPC PNA mean... fascinating. The NAO relaxes but stays predominantly negative at both. A wild winter ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Whoosh. Just got off a call and this is what I come back to? What a nightmare. The funny thing is I think the 12z GFS today is giving me more qpf than yesterday (.1). Does this qualify as an epic miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Did not take long for this thread to have a Thomas the train incident............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Can we PLEASE limit the use of the term "KU"? It doesn't just refer to a big snow storm. Half of the references I see are incorrect. New England can get demolished in a non-KU event. In fact, most of those cases are near misses. A lot of people need to post less and read more. This was a funny thread to come back to after doing some Christmas shopping this morning. As soon as I saw the GFS run now, I knew I would click on this thread and see suicides all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Thank you, Tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Great post, John. Hopefully that brings some folks back off the cliff a bit. Nothing is close to being a definite call yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 12z UK extended: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 A lot of people need to post less and read more. +100,000,000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 From DT...just a great post. IF it turns out that the 12 NAM and 12z GFS Ukie are correct THINK about that while the operational Euro solution was extreme and fun to wacth and impressive in the way the model held it for 2 or 3 runs right now even the euro ens mean forecast would turn out to be 100% wrong ask yoruselves and be honest.... would you in a million years ever think the euro ensemble eman would turn to be totally wrong after showing the same thing for 6 + runs ? and that the Nam and GFS will be correct and there will be NO snow -- NONE -- over RIC DCA BWI PHL NYC BDL... and darn LItlte in BOS? really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 LOL, this thread needed that. What it really needs is grown men to grow up. Just because someone talks about a model that's a miss, we don't have to act like we're two and mom just took the rattle away/change titles etc. Or should we just make it a rule we can only discuss favorable models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Ooops, I must have stepped into the wrong thread, as the negativity in here is rather oppressive. Must be close to 100%. My bad, maybe I'll come back after the air is clear in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Suicides and, in Kevin's case, homicides. We always tell people to keep feelings in check..many do, but some don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 12z UK extended: Is that a direct hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveSolutions Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 What it really needs is grown men to grow up. Just because someone talks about a model that's a miss, we don't have to act like we're two and mom just took the rattle away/change titles etc. Or should we just make it a rule we can only discuss favorable models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 zomg 12z GFS noooo!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 going x-mas shopping, back after for the EC.. everyone go do something fun for lunch, all will be well by 1:30.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Is that a direct hit? Looks like it went SE of the benchmark to me when I toggled both screens at the same time. We'll see what correlation that has, if any, to the Euro run later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well Happy Holidays. Snow is in the air and on the ground...most of winter is ahead of us, we have our good health and a frustrating but fun hobby. All the best to all of you. Time to give out my little tokens to all the people who make my job possible to do...bbl.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 According to Snowgoose in the main thread at 48 HR the GEM looks pretty horrid FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 According to Snowgoose in the main thread at 48 HR the GEM looks pretty horrid FWIW. It's in line with the others: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Maybe for Sable Island.... Is that a direct hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 From DT...just a great post. I echoed those sentiments in that post a moment ago... Trouble is, you are not going to be able to reach the masses on this because 'the masses' do not really posess the analytical approach to a given model run. It's a deterministic snap shot in their mind, and the buck stops there. That is why there is such palbable to point of almost maddening observation of yo-yooing emotions. 2 faults there that compound one another: 1) investing personal or emotional stock in 'whether or not you get a storm' is insanity, period; but failing number 1, ...2) then to not posess the native ability to be analytical you've lost your only hope to restore any stability to the former failure. It's a deadly closed circuit where you are forever enslaved to the whims of modeling - it makes one sick really when you think how creepy that is. I looked at the 12z guidance and thought interesting, looks like this thing is still on docket as an EC concern - amazing to have so many days to have followed this. Then I happened to check out this thread and sure enough, just because model x-y-z showed whatever... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The GFS ens mean looks healthier than the OP. So thats good at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The ensembles are similar to the op..maybe a bit faster. Just a hair east and faster than 06z. This storm is hauling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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