40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 5:47 AM, ETauntonMA said: Verbatim, it looks as though I would be having Blizzard conditions at 84h per the GFS. Station ID: KTAN Lat: 41.87 Long: 71.02 GFS Model Run: 0Z 24DEC 2010 HR Valid 2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX Low Middle High Max Min Sfc Deg F Deg F deg kt in. in. Thk GPH Tmp Tmp mb % TEXT Clouds Clouds Clouds Tmp Tmp Vis 84 12/27 12Z 29 28 350 32 0.63 0.00 530 515 -6.6 -23.9 980.5 100 SN 000OVC107 107OVC192 218BKN271 32 29 0.0 I don't need to look at FOUS to know that; I suspect that a good portion of E MA is experiencing blizz. conditions at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 5:47 AM, weathafella said: Euro's running...and I"m up. LOL me too, was wrapping. Have you changed your thinking at all today? I think it still looks pretty good personally, same as earlier in the day with the BM track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 5:49 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: 1031-964mb gradient on the 00z GFS Regardless of how much snow falls, I'm not sure folks understand the ramifications of that; holy sh**. 3 mb more potent than Feb 1978...3.5 day range......that's cute at day 5-7, but it's sobering within day 4. Put some boulders in the garbage cans.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Through 18 hours, very little difference between Euro and GFS at the same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 5:51 AM, messenger said: LOL me too, was wrapping. Have you changed your thinking at all today? I think it still looks pretty good personally, same as earlier in the day with the BM track. If I were you, I would be prepared to be stuck in for about a solid day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 5:22 AM, dendrite said: The operational GFS can do whatever it wants. Keep in mind the GEFS are run at a much lower resolution than the operational models. I'd wait for the EC/EC ens before believing the op GFS. Yes and that's why I posted those maps. I think sometimes the GFS Ens are given more credit than they deserve and I'm hoping this is one of those times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 5:52 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: If I were you, I would be prepared to be stuck in for about a solid day. If it is a stronger LP than 78 why are we not getting hit with as much snow? Different track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 5:52 AM, messenger said: Yes and that's why I posted those maps. I think sometimes the GFS Ens are given more credit than they deserve and I'm hoping this is one of those times. Agree...they blow. The only time they are useful is when they are near or WEST of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Euro btw at 24 vs 12Z 36 is stronger at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Yup....30 vs 42 at 12z has better digging from northern stream. I'm confident this will produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 5:53 AM, SnowMan said: If it is a stronger LP than 78 why are we not getting hit with as much snow? Different track? More progressive; that particular system stalled and did a loop....there was also an incredible +pp to the n and nw, which provided tremendous insentropic lift ahead of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 5:55 AM, weathafella said: Yup....30 vs 42 at 12z has better digging from northern stream. I'm confident this will produce. cool Jerry thanks for the updating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'm glad I am still up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Definitely liking the sound of this so far, especially with the stronger digging with the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Tonight's run is just a bit tighter and therefore will probably come in a tad further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 6:02 AM, weathafella said: Tonight's run is just a bit tighter and therefore will probably come in a tad further west. Looks like it may. A hair more digging/upstream ridging than 12z. Nothing drastic yet though...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Funny how the dude who challenged me to a bet evaprated after I obliged......I suspect this is very "GFS". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 6:02 AM, dendrite said: Looks like it may. A hair more digging/upstream ridging than 12z. Nothing drastic yet though...we'll see. Yes....just a big of a change. Won't be hugely different but it will be slightly MORE vs LESS favorable imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 someone in another thread says its headed towards the GFS if not better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 6:04 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Funny how the dude who challenged me to a bet evaprated after I obliged......I suspect this is very "GFS". Nah I'm still here, watching your overconfidence demonsrate its presence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'm using toothpicks to keep my eyes open. Adrenaline has taken over. Frosting on the Cake-Jer up for the EURO. How much snow did get that time? LOL Appreciate the description. Knowing at this late hour the truth be told. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Really no difference in LP placement between 00z and 12z through 72hr. The trough is a little more amplified though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Identical to 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 A bit too far east for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Nice CCB at 84 hours though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Yeah...very similar to 12z. It doesn't kick out ENE as quickly though so the Cape is getting pounded 78-84hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 6:11 AM, weathafella said: Nice CCB at 84 hours though. further east than 12Z too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 6:11 AM, weathafella said: Nice CCB at 84 hours though. You can wait till the end of the run to answer if you want, but what is the benefit of the CCB? Heavier snow if you are under it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 6:09 AM, weathafella said: Identical to 12Z On 12/24/2010 at 6:10 AM, weathafella said: A bit too far east for my liking. Is it the same or east? You're confusing me, I know it's late. GFS is the west outlier now. Barring the EC Ens being that much west/ or if the roles were reversed would anyone believe the GFS if it were the east solution? Cone narrowed in a huge way and what this run did do was STOP the EC movement all over the place which increases confidence the correct solution will be around the BM. Good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 6:12 AM, Boston-winter08 said: further east than 12Z too? no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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