CheeselandSkies Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 Well, we've been holding off on starting this thread, but with one decent Plains chase event (especially by mid-March standards) already in the books and a potentially significant severe event for Dixie looming on Wednesday, it's time to start gazing into crystal balls for what the rest of 2021 might bring as far as those rotating columns of air in contact with the ground goes. I'm going to go with 1,200 tornadoes and first (perhaps only) high risk April 6. As has been hashed out in lots of good discussion on this and other forums by knowledgeable people like @andyhb and @Fred Gossage, the indicators are kind of muddled. There are some that weigh heavily towards an active and dangerous season, especially early and in Dixie (see Day 3 outlook, lol) and others that say "not so fast!" (especially towards those media outlets and Twitterheads throwing a 2011 repeat on the table). Wednesday could go HIGH but my gut tells me it stays capped at MDT and plays out with a ceiling similar to last Easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 I think this is my first time trying this contest! Let's say 1,350 and April 18. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 1532 May 2nd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 1,248 April 24th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 1377 tornadoes EDIT: I'm joining the March 17th club too after seeing the latest data. 2nd High Risk day will be April 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 1422 tornadoes and assuming this Wednesday's event does not become.a High Risk, I will say April 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 1400 Tornadoes, 2 high risk, first one March 17th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 16, 2021 Author Share Posted March 16, 2021 2 hours ago, cheese007 said: 1400 Tornadoes, 2 high risk, first one March 17th I was wondering when someone was going to throw their hat in the ring for tomorrow. There were some model solutions yesterday that had me second-guessing my call that it stays moderate, but the ominous trends have stalled or reversed themselves (slightly) in subsequent runs. A mid-day upgrade is still possible pending day-of trends (kind of like on 4/28/14), but at the moment I'm not expecting a high risk on tomorrow's initial (or even second) Day 1 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 44 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: I was wondering when someone was going to throw their hat in the ring for tomorrow. There were some model solutions yesterday that had me second-guessing my call that it stays moderate, but the ominous trends have stalled or reversed themselves (slightly) in subsequent runs. A mid-day upgrade is still possible pending day-of trends (kind of like on 4/28/14), but at the moment I'm not expecting a high risk on tomorrow's initial (or even second) Day 1 outlook. If I'm right it'll be a hell of a redemption ark given my utter failure with last month's snowstorm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said: I was wondering when someone was going to throw their hat in the ring for tomorrow. There were some model solutions yesterday that had me second-guessing my call that it stays moderate, but the ominous trends have stalled or reversed themselves (slightly) in subsequent runs. A mid-day upgrade is still possible pending day-of trends (kind of like on 4/28/14), but at the moment I'm not expecting a high risk on tomorrow's initial (or even second) Day 1 outlook. Consider me throwing my hat in the ring for tomorrow as well. I guess it's not a bold prediction based on how strongly worded the D2 outlook was just now. 1250 tornadoes, first high risk tomorrow (March 17), and I'll just throw out another date of April 15 for a second high risk (and last of the year). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Based of the discussion from the SPC, first high risk will be tomorrow. Number of tornadoes will be above average around 1401 edited to not copy cheese; didn't even see his post 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 12 hours ago, cheese007 said: If I'm right it'll be a hell of a redemption ark given my utter failure with last month's snowstorm Whelp redemption ark completed I guess lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 womp womp With the Day 2 moderate I'm starting to wonder if we end up with back-to-back high risks. Do I expect one? Not really, but with the moderate put up this early, if models continue to trend scarier, there's plenty of opportunities for a high risk to be added for Thursday as well. Yikes. I doubt anybody would have been bold/serious enough to predict back-to-back high risks here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notsomadscientist Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 I am going to guess on the high end with 1,621 total tornadoes and I am too late for the 1st high risk day but I will go for a total of 5 high risk days this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 17, 2021 Author Share Posted March 17, 2021 Well, that didn't take long. @cheese007 and @TexMexWx got the first high risk, yearly tornado count obviously still TBD. Place your bets/guesses for the second high risk! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 On 3/17/2021 at 5:25 AM, CheeselandSkies said: Well, that didn't take long. @cheese007 and @TexMexWx got the first high risk, yearly tornado count obviously still TBD. Place your bets/guesses for the second high risk! March 27 Yearly count: 1185 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 On 3/18/2021 at 5:00 PM, MattPetrulli said: March 27 Yearly count: 1185 Do you wanna change this to the 25th? I'm assuming that when you made that prediction, you were looking at the event from the (then) long-range models at that time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 32 minutes ago, TexMexWx said: Do you wanna change this to the 25th? I'm assuming that when you made that prediction, you were looking at the event from the (then) long-range models at that time... I very much do 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 The second high risk will be this Thursday, March 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 Two slightly "underachieving" High Risk days Moderate for wind day a couple decent Enhanced days other then that not much flatlined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 Who thinks our third High Risk will come this month? What day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 April's #tornado count in the U.S. may have been the lowest in almost 30 years, according to preliminary data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 5, 2021 Share Posted May 5, 2021 What do you think are the five most recent classic tornado alley tornado days? It might be interesting to hear people's thoughts on this. I figure that a lot of chasers in Oklahoma and Kansas are unhappy that the patterns haven't worked out for Oklahoma and Kansas for quite a while. 3/13/2021 - cluster of tornadoes in the Texas Panhandle 4/22/2020 - cluster of tornadoes in Oklahoma, but it wasn't much of a broad plains outbreak 4/29/2019 - a significant cluster of tornadoes in eastern Oklahoma and southwestern Missouri. I'm fairly sure that the general Plains storm chasers wouldn't have considered this the best day to chase, as Missouri is not the best terrain area. 5/26/2019- cluster of tornadoes in northeastern Oklahoma and in Missouri 5/21/2019 - some tornadoes near Topeka 5/17/2019- a couple of long-lived supercells in Kansas and Nebraska 5/7/2019 - Texas Panhandle tornadoes 5/1/2018 - supercells tracked many miles in Nebraska and Kansas. 5/18/2017 - definitely some tornadoes in Oklahoma and Kansas, but not necessarily all in the best terrain for chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 5, 2021 Author Share Posted May 5, 2021 IMO there hasn't really been a classic regional Plains outbreak since 5/6/2015 (reports graphic attached). There was expected to be a more significant one ten days later (15% hatched TOR from the OK/TX border to I-80 corridor in NE on the initial Day 1 outlook) but most of the warm sector got washed out by overnight junk and the only major player of the day ended up being the Elmer/Tipton, OK-area tornado. Likewise every other would-be high end day since (most notably the high-risk 5/18/17 and 5/20/19) have 11th-hour downtrended to one "needle in a haystack" storm of the day that performs. Not to say that there haven't been classic tornadoes/tornado days in the mid/late 2010s (especially Dodge City 5/24/16 and Chapman the next day, as well as some good western Plains/front range days in CO/WY/MT/western NE) but those have mostly been one or two storm affairs, not outbreaks in the classic sense like a 4/26/91 or 5/3/99 or even 5/29/04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted May 5, 2021 Share Posted May 5, 2021 Agreed with the above. There's been a drought of sorts for a few years now. The two (most recent) days that I would consider a notable good plains chase day that wasn't an ugly HP mess for me were 5/24/2016 and 5/18/2017. These were more of a localized outbreak/cyclic supercell. Another clip: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyUeZku1sbU 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 5, 2021 Share Posted May 5, 2021 Man I forgot how awesome that Dodge City storm was. It was just tornado after tornado is mostly wide open fields with a decent road network. I don't think I'll ever top that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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