OBS-NOWCAST: Back-Back snow accumulation risk (late March 16). This thread focused on March 19, 2021

[MJO812]

HRRR

[NEG NAO]

[MJO812]

Nam has no snow

Awful model

[JustWeatherWx]

5 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

NAM!

Nope. 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Nam has no snow

Awful model

Color me stunned. 

[jm1220]

The rain is looking like generally a bust also. Farmingdale has 0.43" so far when most models had close to 2". Maybe if we're lucky this rain from the Delmarva clips us and we end up at 0.75".

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.59" of rain for the day yesterday. 

Current temp 42

[weatherfreeeeak]

16 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Picked up 0.59" of rain for the day yesterday. 

Current temp 42

We didn’t get as much as expected 

[Rtd208]

Just now, weatherfreeeeak said:

We didn’t get as much as expected 

I have seen some bust posts on here but I wouldn't go that far yet with additional precipitation moving into the area which could bring up to another 0.50" give or take IMO. But overall yes not quite as much as some of the models were showing. 

[wdrag]

Other than e LI little hope for anything on the grass.  NYC had a T of snow between 2-330A but basically no winter weather drama. Typically used modeling wasn't good. Even the region up n of I84 was a bust, where ensembles had much better chances. Will post whatever CoCoRAHS snow reports, in graphic format, toward 7P as a wrap.  Whatever late winter chance we had for snow in NYC, this may have been it this week.  

[Rtd208]

23 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Other than e LI little hope for anything on the grass.  NYC had a T of snow between 2-330A but basically no winter weather drama. Typically used modeling wasn't good. Even the region up n of I84 was a bust, where ensembles had much better chances. Will post whatever CoCoRAHS snow reports, in graphic format, toward 7P as a wrap.  Whatever late winter chance we had for snow in NYC, this may have been it this week.  

The models have also been overdone with QPF overall as well. I actually can't wait for the current GFS to be replaced. Onto spring/summer and severe weather.

[Rjay]

Had light snow a few hours ago.  ISP also reported it. 

[bluewave]

About .68 here is SW Suffolk. Less rain than forecast. Maybe the convection associated with the high risk to our south threw the models off. 

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

About .68 here is SW Suffolk. Less rain than forecast. Maybe the convection associated with the high risk to our south threw the models off. 

Might have contributed. It was a pretty solid bust by the models. Central Park had 0.63”, ISP 0.59” when close to 2” was widely shown. If this was snow we’d all be quite disappointed. 

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

The models have also been overdone with QPF overall as well. I actually can't wait for the current GFS to be replaced. Onto spring/summer and severe weather.

Spring is boring

Onto the tropics

[bluewave]

54 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Might have contributed. It was a pretty solid bust by the models. Central Park had 0.63”, ISP 0.59” when close to 2” was widely shown. If this was snow we’d all be quite disappointed. 

This happens all the time during convection season. Model forecasts often don’t match the location of the best convection. You could see all the best convection going by just our south yesterday. 
 

THE ATLANTIC CITY NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MARCH 18 2021...
 

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                    
  YESTERDAY        1.73          1.76 1946   0.15   1.58     0.01   

[Brian5671]

Horrid model performance in this one in every aspect

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Horrid model performance in this one in every aspect

The HRRR was awful, as was the GFS and Para GFS even the CMC and RGEM were no bargain

[wdrag]

Can't disagree on model performance horrible.  Even where ensembles had 1"+ snow n of I84...  just wretched.  

Wont post CoCoRaHs: not worth it.  believe it or not, spotty 1/2" se NYS, nw of the forum, and would you also believe MVY and ACK had .1 to .3" as of the the reporting time this morning.  Grade on this thread: nice LT but results were a non event throughout. Poor. 

[LibertyBell]

On 3/18/2021 at 9:06 AM, MJO812 said:

Yep just like he did for the month of February.

he just rips/reads the ENSO forecast.... el nino la nina  this year he got a big fat la nada for his winter forecast lol

 

[LibertyBell]

On 3/19/2021 at 8:53 AM, bluewave said:

This happens all the time during convection season. Model forecasts often don’t match the location of the best convection. You could see all the best convection going by just our south yesterday. 
 

THE ATLANTIC CITY NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MARCH 18 2021...
 

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                    
  YESTERDAY        1.73          1.76 1946   0.15   1.58     0.01   

it also happens a lot during dry periods