OBS-NOWCAST: Back-Back snow accumulation risk (late March 16). This thread focused on March 19, 2021

[MJO812]

[LibertyBell]

On 3/16/2021 at 9:53 PM, MJO812 said:

I was only 7 years old. Must have been a nice storm.

I loved that storm!  JFK got about 5 inches and near blizzard conditions out by the Hamptons and over a foot of snow (16") in Suffolk County.  Andy 

[LibertyBell]

Andy Pettitte pitched through a snowy Yankee home opener in what would be my favorite game and season of all time.

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

Hard to believe that the last 1.50”+  rainstorm in NYC was at the end of October.

 

 

 

thats one reason I'm leaning towards a very dry and very hot summer

 

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said:

snow map? or at least a generalization on what it has?

edit: i got it, stolen from NE forum

That 10:1 ratio snowmap is overdone. Ratios will be much lower, those accumulations shown are too high

[snowman19]

The new Euro completely dropped the event

[wdrag]

Will convert this thread to OBS-NOWcast this evening,  Not much there for i80 south including LI. Best chance for accumulation snow appears to be I84 northward. NAM yesterday was among the modes taking the lead on less snow risk NJ/LI... we'll see what happens. NWS ensemble chance of 1"+ and the NWS 5AM/18 forecast of snowfall for the northeast. Please use the legend for your area.  No updates from myself til this eve. 604A/18

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The new Euro completely dropped the event

And your feeling of total euphoria regarding that, comes out in even a simple one sentence post. 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

And your feeling of total euphoria regarding that, comes out in even a simple one sentence post. 

Makes you wonder why he'd even want to live in Rockland County lol.  Sounds like someone who should be living in Miami.

 

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Makes you wonder why he'd even want to live in Rockland County lol.  Sounds like someone who should be living in Miami.

 

He is a huge troll

[HVSnowLover]

42 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

He is a huge troll

He definitely tends to forecast on the side of less snow all the time but more times than not he is right. 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

He definitely tends to forecast on the side of less snow all the time but more times than not he is right. 

Yep just like he did for the month of February.

[Brian5671]

snow or no snow, this is shaping up to a be big soaker-models not backing down on QPF

[jm1220]

20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

snow or no snow, this is shaping up to a be big soaker-models not backing down on QPF

Yep, soaker incoming. Most of us should see close to 2” rain. 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

He is a huge troll

This was never a NYC snow threat at any point

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This was never a NYC snow threat at any point

You got 1 event right

[winterwx21]

Even GFS is showing hardly any snow now. NAM and RGEM show very little too. Not a big surprise that the models backed off on this, since back end snow is something that rarely works out for our area. Maybe it ends as some non accumulating wet flakes for a very short time.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

4 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

He definitely tends to forecast on the side of less snow all the time but more times than not he is right. 

That’s just not true IMO. He makes general comments and if it doesn’t live up to expectations in one area of the forum he claims victory. It’s a large area with lots of different micro climates. 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Even GFS is showing hardly any snow now. NAM and RGEM show very little too. Not a big surprise that the models backed off on this, since back end snow is something that rarely works out for our area. Maybe it ends as some non accumulating wet flakes for a very short time.

Less dynamics in general and a faster move out of the precip. Cold air comes in too late or precip is too light to take advantage. These Anafront setups don’t work out for the most part and especially this late in March. 

[MJO812]

45 and rain here 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Less dynamics in general and a faster move out of the precip. Cold air comes in too late or precip is too light to take advantage. These Anafront setups don’t work out for the most part and especially this late in March. 

I can’t remember the last time there was a legit anafront snow setup here, they usually favor New England, like the Norluns/inverted troughs do. Once you get to mid-March and beyond, good luck getting an anafront snow to work out here

[jm1220]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I can’t remember the last time there was a legit anafront snow setup here, they usually favor New England, like the Norluns/inverted troughs do. Once you get to mid-March and beyond, good luck getting an anafront snow to work out here

3/16/07 May have been one of those setups, if I recall right there was a surface cold front east of here but mid level warm air still in place with the tons of sleet that storm had. 

[hudsonvalley21]

0.83 in the bucket as of 4pm.  44/43

[jm1220]

LMAO-18z NAM actually develops a snow band for central NJ through LI overnight. The 10-1 maps have 5-8" from roughly Trenton through LI. 

[Brian5671]

NAM!

[NEG NAO]

NYC reaches 40 inches for the season

 

[jm1220]

39 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

NYC reaches 40 inches for the season

 

8" bullseye over my house. From that panel to God's eyes.

[NorthShoreWx]

50 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

NYC reaches 40 inches for the season

 

3k NAM has a lot less snow, but still a couple of inches near here.  Almost every part of me wants to write this off, but then its a short-term forecast from the NAM. I'd take the 3k version in a heartbeat.

[wdrag]

Converted to OBS-NOWCAST.  No time to attempt modeling edge. A lot of this will happen when our members are sleeping midnight-5AM but my guess is there should be slippery spots in and near NYC predawn Friday with strong CAA and snow showers ending between 5A and 8A.  NYC should trace and maybe get lucky with a few tenths between 2A-6A, with apparently now greater odds for a few tenths of an inch of snow e LI, and just s of I78. I don't really know what will happen.  Up here Wantage way, far nw NJ, hope to see a dusting but we might miss? My this be last decent chance of measurable snow for the 20-21 winter in NYC?

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

3k NAM has a lot less snow, but still a couple of inches near here.  Almost every part of me wants to write this off, but then its a short-term forecast from the NAM. I'd take the 3k version in a heartbeat.

Gfs is also more impressive