FPizz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 time to rush the euro server That is fantastic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 time to rush the euro server Hah, 4DVAR my a** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Any chance this could trend back over the next 24-48 hours, there is still time right? It is Thursday after all it CAN happen...but the problem is, better sampling data is being injected into the models now that the h5 low is over land in the SW states. SO, when this happens and the trends begin to take shape showing an OTS solution, it AINT GOOD! todays 12z runs and tonites were/are huuuuuuge because of the better sampling. and so far, 12z crushes any metropolis storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Any chance this could trend back over the next 24-48 hours, there is still time right? It is Thursday after all santa has a better chance of coming down your chimney in the next 24-48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I honestly did not expect this after the GFS ensemble mean went west. This may go down as one of the all time let downs and European busts that I can recall. Unforunately, as a community we have this notion that the American modeling is subpar, but in all reaity, this may not be the case. This is one case (and one set of forecasts)...the truth remains that we still lag by a considerable enough margin (though the gap is in fact closing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 tv station program director to all field reporters "WE NEED 15 MORE MINUTES OF PEOPLE CHRISTMAS SHOPPING FOR THE 6PM NEWS PRONTO" what a disaster for the media unreal what these models have done to the public eye Yeah, its gonna take awhile for everyone to give their trust back into the Euro model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This is one case (and one set of forecasts)...the truth remains that we still lag by a considerable enough margin (though the gap is in fact closing). One case? The Euro was not so great with the last storm either. It's really no better than the GFS right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah, its gonna take awhile for everyone to give their trust back into the Euro model. You should have been forecasting Colin and Fiona. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 tv station program director to all field reporters "WE NEED 15 MORE MINUTES OF PEOPLE CHRISTMAS SHOPPING FOR THE 6PM NEWS PRONTO" what a disaster for the media unreal what these models have done to the public eye Midlo, were the local news stations over there jumpin all over this threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 tv station program director to all field reporters "WE NEED 15 MORE MINUTES OF PEOPLE CHRISTMAS SHOPPING FOR THE 6PM NEWS PRONTO" what a disaster for the media unreal what these models have done to the public eye honestly.. there's only so much value going into great detail or showing d5 blizzard maps from one model on its own with the public. it's great we have so much access to info but d5 blizzards have failed a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 12z euro not a flake for anyone on the east coast North of fayettville did not expect THAT ..... Knew it was going to be east BUT I did not think cape Cod would be dry.... anyone think i the 12z run would show THAT? 12Z is a big hit for Cape Cod. They are not dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 One case? The Euro was not so great with the last storm either. It's really no better than the GFS right now. And with that, let's take the rest of the model ripping elsewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'll bite. Honestly, I had these concerns on my premium discussions (glad I saved them lol), but I NEVER thought I see this all go down like this. Last night and even this morning I thought a pretty good place to be is best snow along the coast. Now, best snow over the ocean. I'm buying a boat for this winter. lol Steve thanks for being fair and honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 12Z is a big hit for Cape Cod. They are not dry. all of cc is over 1"... at least a temporary raging blizzard there it looks. if i was in sene into maine i think things might be ok still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Wow UKmet and GGEM ... doing great right now. O-o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 So, what are the takeaways if the euro ensembles are west like the 12 z gfs? (if any) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 12Z is a big hit for Cape Cod. They are not dry. I stand corrected I did not load my 96 hr euro image on the other hand I am not sure a 6 hr period of of 0.50" bwtween 90 and 96 hrs is a BIG hit for them greg ... do YOU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 And with that, let's take the rest of the model ripping elsewhere That basically proves what I just said anyway. I don't see the EURO looking significantly better there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nynjpaweather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Steve thanks for being fair and honest It's just the truth. I don't care what anyone says with this writing on the wall stuff. If you told me the ECMWF would shift east a bit and snow mostly for the coast, I'd buy it, but THIS this is an epic fail on this model for the second time. Again, I wouldn't completely end this storm threat but it took a heck of a gun shot wound to the stomach this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It's amazing how advanced we are and we still can't get computers to predict the weather correctly 5 days out. Maybe we're not making it a high enough priority... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I hope the Mets who so relied on the Euro come and profess their errors, no one model is the master of East Coast storms, no model was good here IMO. that is NOT always the case. and I hope you know better what you are forgetting here is that it SEEMS the GFS ensemble mean which have also showed a Major east coast storm whiffed as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I hate to say it(shutters)the navy model has been the one computer model all week long predicting this thing goes out to sea and just a strung out mess of snow showers in the southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It's just the truth. I don't care what anyone says with this writing on the wall stuff. If you told me the ECMWF would shift east a bit and snow mostly for the coast, I'd buy it, but THIS this is an epic fail on this model for the second time. Again, I wouldn't completely end this storm threat but it took a heck of a gun shot wound to the stomach this afternoon. Pretty much. I WOULD end the chances of a blizzard for all of the big cities, except MAYBE Boston. I could see NYC cashing in on a few inches if this trends a little further West, but more than that? Absolutely not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Maybe we're not making it a high enough priority... models arent supposed to tell us exactly what is going to happen.. i dont think they ever will though we might get pretty close in the short range. that's what the red tag is for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I hate to say it(shutters)the navy model has been the one computer model all week long predicting this thing goes out to sea and just a strung out mess of snow showers in the southeast That might just be a stopped clock thing, where it's right twice a day. If every storm goes out to sea, the NOGAPS will be right, because that's all it EVER shows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Midlo, were the local news stations over there jumpin all over this threat? oh god yea honestly.. there's only so much value going into great detail or showing d5 blizzard maps from one model on its own with the public. it's great we have so much access to info but d5 blizzards have failed a lot. poor cisco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On the other hand at this point there is only one way for this to swing It seems to me everything is about as far east and late phased as it can be IF there is going to be any changes IF... it is back to the west especially give the GFS Individual ensemble members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I hate to say it(shutters)the navy model has been the one computer model all week long predicting this thing goes out to sea and just a strung out mess of snow showers in the southeast yeah But when it shows the same thing for jan1996 maybe it doesnt count for much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The last storm? You mean the midwest storm that NONE of the other guidance was even close on and the Euro did well on? Or you mean the last EC storm....where there was really only a single run that was too wound up. We really need to learn to use the guidance that is available to us....one model (even the best one) isn't going to be right 100% of the time. The other global models (GFS, UK, GGEM) have closed that gap quite a bit on the EC, and we need to learn to interpret that. I think we also still have a tendency to hug too much to the op/deterministic runs, when we need to learn to use/interpret ensembles (even the EC ensemble itself was throwing up red flags about the op run). Could the difference have been that the energy did not come out of the SW on the MW storm? Could the "Euro SW bias" cause this? or was it simply that the type of cyclogenesis in the MW storm was different and the Euro was able to pick up on it while the others were not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On the other hand at this point there is only one way for this to swing It seems to me everything is about as far east and late phased as it can be IF there is going to be any changes IF... it is back to the west especially give the GFS Individual ensemble members which member still gives me a blizzard? i need something to hug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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