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12Z Guidance Discussion 12/23/2010


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Guest someguy

12z euro not a flake for anyone on the east coast North of fayettville

did not expect THAT ..... Knew it was going to be east BUT I did not think cape Cod would be dry....

anyone think i the 12z run would show THAT?

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12z euro not a flake for anyone on the east coast North of fayettville

did not expect THAT ..... Knew it was going to be east BUT I did not think cape Cod would be dry....

anyone think i the 12z run would show THAT?

based on the way this was trending last 12 hrs not too suprised here...oh well.

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12z euro not a flake for anyone on the east coast North of fayettville

did not expect THAT ..... Knew it was going to be east BUT I did not think cape Cod would be dry....

anyone think i the 12z run would show THAT?

I'll bite.

Honestly, I had these concerns on my premium discussions (glad I saved them lol), but I NEVER thought I see this all go down like this. Last night and even this morning I thought a pretty good place to be is best snow along the coast. Now, best snow over the ocean. I'm buying a boat for this winter. lol

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it's not the phase that is going horribly wrong...sure it may not be as great as earlier runs...but the large differences are the evolution of high latitudes of the closed H5 low east of hudson bay and the closed low moving out of the NE US right now....

go compare the evolution between 12z 72h today with 12z 96h yesterday

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Not really... The writing was already on the wall with this one..

With the Euro showing a storm for three straight runs, the GFS coiming a bit west lte yesterday, and the ensembles still in a relatively good location, the fact that the Euro has seen this storm go *well* out to sea is stunning, IMO.

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I honestly did not expect this after the GFS ensemble mean went west. This may go down as one of the all time let downs and European busts that I can recall. Unforunately, as a community we have this notion that the American modeling is subpar, but in all reaity, this may not be the case.

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