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12Z Guidance Discussion 12/23/2010

jcwxguy

By jcwxguy,
in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

Obviously we don't know yet although it seems inevitable...I'd be wary of trusting the Euro during La Ninas in any instance where its markedly slower than the other models and that slow relative speed is a major factor in its end result as it was here.

Nina or not, it's probably a good idea to be skeptical of all models in the mid-range, ESPECIALLY if they don't have inter-model support.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

oh well we got snookered by a known euro bias... never again! <till next time>

Yea, I know it was in the back of all of our minds. All the times that same bias was called out when it was negatively affecting our snow chances should have made me more skeptical. Seeing those amazing deep and near perfect solutions in a row made it easy to forget that the energy in the SW would likely move faster than modeled on the Euro.

We still have a fair chance at seeing some snow in the MA.

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NaoPos

NaoPos

Posted
Posted

Nina or not, it's probably a good idea to be skeptical of all models in the mid-range, ESPECIALLY if they don't have inter-model support.

Yeah. Considering up untill 24hrs ago, we say every type of solution possible, from the euro hecs, to thr UKIE 960mb off NC coast and ots, to the GFS weak and flat to the ggem east of the european and not as strong... WHat a nightmare.

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NaoPos

NaoPos

Posted
Posted

oh well we got snookered by a known euro bias... never again! <till next time>

the timing on the gfs seems to be indentical to where the EURO was 1st to delay it ... i think it's just the phase that has gone haywire. Maybe a red tag can explaing this?

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Maximum lawman

Maximum lawman

Posted
Posted

Not so subtle....look at how the Euro has been handling the energy north of N. Dakota/MN...it dives it SSSE' ward....other models have handled it in such a way that it actually buckles the trough over the northern plains....enough so that it broadens the base of the trough, and "deflects" the s/w energy to the north of the southern stream energy. There is essentially a plateau of h500 heights (ie little slope) with pockets of energy "hanging" out, until the plateau gets tipped southward (heights start to fall). The timing and "subtle" motions that ensue, are extremely sensitive and I'd assume, inherently hard to model.

Take a couple of marbles and roll them down a ramp.....you probably can predict farily closely the paths. Now take a level table with a couple marbles on it, and slowly start to tip it....the smallest of "features" in the table will drive the initial motions, until the gravitational force becomes dominant...but those tiny features set the initial course, which means a very small pertabation in the marbles' starting locations could mean large outcomes of their paths, given the SAME tipping of the table.

I can't quite tell if you are agreeing with me or disagreeing with me, lol. I like your marble analogy, and it was what I was trying to say - a higher res model might id a subtle feature that lower res models miss, and thus the different solutions. It seems to me that the difference is how the models handle a little lob of the PV is central Canda, which is there on the GFS but doesn't seem to be picked up by the Euro thus no plateau in the central US and the energy can continue on its merry way to phase (but the graphics I get for the Euro are horrible, so maybe it's there).

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Guest someguy

Guest someguy

Posted
Posted

Obviously we don't know yet although it seems inevitable...I'd be wary of trusting the Euro during La Ninas in any instance where its markedly slower than the other models and that slow relative speed is a major factor in its end result as it was here.

+2

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Southland Wx

Southland Wx

Posted
Posted

IF it turns out that the 12 NAM and 12z GFS Ukie are correct

THINK about that

while the operational Euro solution was extreme and fun to wacth and impressive in the way the model held it for 2 or 3 runs

right now even the euro ens mean forecast would turn out to be 100% wrong

ask yoruselves and be honest....

would you in a million years ever think the euro ensemble eman would turn to be totally wrong

after showing the same thing for 6 + runs ?

and that the Nam and GFS will be correct and there will be NO snow -- NONE -- over RIC DCA BWI PHL NYC BDL... and darn LItlte in BOS?

really?

This is all well and good, and you're right about how shocking it is. But in this instance, consistency be damned...when I see the models just as consistent with a ridge axis on the lee of the Rockies or the Continental Divide, I am going to be suspicious that the model solution of an I-95 bomb is just flat out wrong...which is how I felt about the Euro from day one. For as good as the Euro is it isn't infallible. Too soon to declare it a loser in this completely, but if it does, I hope some of the younger weenies/mets can learn from this...that as good as the Euro is, it has its own set of flaws too.

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Guest someguy

Guest someguy

Posted
Posted

This is all well and good, and you're right about how shocking it is. But in this instance, consistency be damned...when I see the models just as consistent with a ridge axis on the lee of the Rockies or the Continental Divide, I am going to be suspicious that the model solution of an I-95 bomb is just flat out wrong...which is how I felt about the Euro from day one. For as good as the Euro is it isn't infallible. Too soon to declare it a loser in this completely, but if it does, I hope some of the younger weenies/mets can learn from this...that as good as the Euro is, it has its own set of flaws too.

again a very good point and one I made this Point on all 2 or 3 radio shows ... the ridge over the Rockies being too far east

I thought THE bLOCK in the nw atlantic beig extreme would counter it

clearly I was wrong

Maybe it is the LA Nina

of course the last SEVERAL runs of the GFS ensemble mean are .. IF the 12z op models are going to be correct...

going to turn out to be 100% wrong as well.

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted

again a very good point and one I made this Point on all 2 or 3 radio shows ... the ridge over the Rockies being too far east

I thought THE bLOCK in the nw atlantic beig extreme would counter it

clearly I was wrong

Hmmm, interesting point, the idea of the ridge placement out west has been brought up several times, true enough. If I recall correctly, a lot of focus the past few days was on worrying whether the Atlantic block would "move out of the way" enough to give room, whereas concern over the ridge placement was kind of more in the background so to speak.

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Absolute Humidity

Absolute Humidity

Posted
Posted

Since the 12z runs so far today are pretty much the same as yesterdays (all Misses), and some not by much. Wouldn't we expect the euro to follow suit last night? or 12Z yesterday? Just wondering, if the EC comes is as a hit similar to last nights or prior runs (Which, again I would not be suprised if it did), why wouldn't it not be correct? I know about the holding the energy back and boming thing bias, but other models bomb this as well, just OTS. Is there something the higher res is overdoing? I always thought the EC handled the Nina's better. Thanks

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

Since the 12z runs so far today are pretty much the same as yesterdays (all Misses), and some not by much. Wouldn't we expect the euro to follow suit last night? or 12Z yesterday? Just wondering, if the EC comes is as a hit similar to last nights or prior runs (Which, again I would not be suprised if it did), why wouldn't it not be correct? I know about the holding the energy back and boming thing bias, but other models bomb this as well, just OTS. Is there something the higher res is overdoing? I always thought the EC handled the Nina's better. Thanks

If it shows the same scenario now its probably going to be more due to how its handling the northern piece of energy since it should be well caught onto whats happening in the southwest now.

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Quasievil

Quasievil

Posted
Posted

We're also learning about the pattern with these debacles as well...I'm thinking the N.E./MA is going to need a weakly negative NAO, a -PNA, and a -EPO...these +PNA/-NAO scenarios don't work in La Ninas....at least in ones that are moderate or greater.

I think we all know that this is going to be a tough year for snow. N.E. has a better shot at it than us MA'ers do. Anything that phases will probably be too delayed in doing so ... maybe some overrunning this year can get us a little something something.

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NJHurricane

NJHurricane

Posted
Posted

Ive been distraught all day.I hope something miraculous happens soon to pull me out of this funk.The 12z euro better start a new trend, a trend for the better.

posts like this will continue to be deleted.....

Please take emotion posts to the complaint thread or start your own thread in OT....this side is for analysis....feel free to have group therapy in OT or chat...

if you want to post about what you think is/has/ may be going wrong with this storm threat go ahead here...if you just want to vent, which is totally understandable, please do so in OT or chat. Thanks.

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chris87

chris87

Posted
Posted

I was just going to make this point because they are several members that keep the track very close to the coast...and the main differences between these runs and the runs further out to sea have less to do with the main phase and more to do with the interaction because the phase over the eastern US and it's interaction with a large closed low at H5 east of Hudson Bay and the ridging ahead of the phase....

for example, the OPS GFS merged the eastern US phase with the closed low east of Hudson Bay and you have SW H5 flow over New England...while looking at P001...the ridging ahead of the main phase works all the way back into eastern Canada and you have southern and very diffluent flow over New England at H5.

just some thoughts....now time to see what the euro has to say for itself

Anybody have the storm total GFS ensemble mean precip? Looks like there's still a couple (2 or 3) members that shellac the entire I-95 corridor like some of the better Euro runs. Unfortunately also a couple that completely miss everybody.

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NaoPos

NaoPos

Posted
Posted

guess i'll just keep going..

tombo:

"hr 42 closed h5 low over eastern tx...northern stream starting to drop south lgt precip from southern wis south...some lgt to mod precip over southern indiana and ill, western ky and ten, ark...mod precip over tx"

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